Brexit. Why do Brits want Out of the EU?

Email to members stops short of setting out party’s stance in event of early general election

Jeremy Corbyn has sought to draw a line under Labour’s Brexit travails by announcing a “settled” policy of backing remain in any referendum called on a Conservative deal.

The Labour leader has been under intense pressure to shift to an overtly anti-Brexit stance, but has insisted on consulting the party’s stakeholders in recent weeks, including the trade unions.

In a statement emailed to party members on Tuesday he made no reference to what stance Labour would take in the event of a general election in the near future, or whether Labour could enter such a contest saying it would still go ahead with leaving the European Union.

But he made clear that if a referendum was called on the Brexit deal negotiated by the incoming Tory prime minister – or on whether to go ahead with a no-deal Brexit – Labour would support remain.

Corbyn wrote: “Whoever becomes the new prime minister should have the confidence to put their deal, or no deal, back to the people in a public vote.

“In those circumstances, I want to make it clear that Labour would campaign for remain against either no deal or a Tory deal that does not protect the economy and jobs.”

The trade unions published a statement on Monday that suggested Labour should seek to negotiate its own, better Brexit deal and then put that to the people, but declined to specify how the party would campaign in the event of that happening.

Corbyn acknowledged the issue of Brexit had “been divisive in our communities and sometimes in our party too”. He defended Labour’s position over the past three years, saying it had been right to respect the result of the 2016 referendum.

The Brexit Party surge is fading, according to an exclusive BMG Research opinion poll for The Independent.

The poll puts the Conservatives and Labour neck and neck on 28 per cent and 27 per cent respectively, if a general election were held today, with the Liberal Democrats on 18 per cent and Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party on 14 per cent.

The Conservatives are up two points since last month, while Labour is unchanged and the Lib Dems up one – but the Brexit Party has lost four points, suggesting that the effect of coming top in the European elections in May is wearing off.

The Lib Dems, on the other hand, who also received a boost in the European elections, are holding on to their share of the vote. The Green Party, which, like the Lib Dems, benefited from a clear pro-Remain stance in the elections to the European parliament, are unchanged on 6 per cent.

Mr Farage’s old party, Ukip, are on 2 per cent, while Change UK, now called the Independent Group for Change and reduced to just five MPs in the House of Commons, is on 1 per cent.

After the Brexit, the possible incoming British Prime Minister wants to ward off the damage to the economy with the help of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. But Johnson doesn't know the details.

Johnson wants Britain to leave the EU on 31 October, "come what may". If the EU does not respond to Johnson's demands for changes to the Brexit agreement by then, he wants to leave the international community without a deal if necessary.

Johnson claims that negative consequences for the economy could then be overcome with the help of a provision from the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) - an international treaty that laid the foundation for the World Trade Organization (WTO). Then the same trade rules as before could simply apply until a new free trade agreement is concluded, Johnson said. Tariffs would be superfluous. Weeks ago, however, he could not even name the exact provision in the agreement.

Yesterday, in an interview with the BBC moderator Andrew Neil, Johnson now attached great importance to the fact that it was Article 24, Paragraph 5b of the GATT Agreement. However, Johnson had to answer Neils' question as to whether he also knew what Paragraph 5c contained.

BBC: Tory leadership: Jeremy Hunt 'expects' Brexit by Christmas

The Brits are ******* the Brits, as they always do. And then they pretend it's Brussels who did it...

Don't be so defeatist. Once the British free wheeling whiners are gone, the rest of the EU can make better progress.

We shall see. The climate is terminally screwed anyway.

Exclusive: Boris Johnson claimed bill would be 'vanishingly inexpensive' - but study finds it would be more than half of England’s schools budget

The cost of compensating UK businesses for a no-deal Brexit will reach £22bn a year – more than half of England’s schools budget – a landmark analysis of the impact of crashing out of the EU has found.

The study, seen by The Independent, warns that industries including cars, chemicals, textiles and aircraft, as well as much of agriculture, would all need hefty bailouts from punishing new charges.

Its findings were immediately condemned as “shocking and devastating” by one former Conservative cabinet minister, who urged fellow MPs to rise up to stop no deal.

The £22bn figure will fuel criticism of Boris Johnson for his claim that the costs of leaving the EU without an agreement – as he has vowed to do on 31 October, if necessary – would be “vanishingly inexpensive”.

It also dwarfs the £6bn which his rival, Jeremy Hunt, has pledged to set aside for no-deal compensation, an offer covering fishing and farming only.
In contrast, the respected UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO) has measured the enormous impact across all of industry – covering both tariff and non-tariff costs, the latter from leaving the EU single market.

It calculates the annual bill for manufacturing at £18.5bn. The cost for agriculture would be £3.4bn – less than Mr Hunt’s pledge of £6bn, but taking the overall figure to almost £22bn.

Dr Michael Gasiorek, a senior economics lecturer at the University of Sussex, said it exposed the fallacy of senior politicians “trying to play down” the impact of a crash-out Brexit.

“A lot of Brexiteer politicians don’t appear to recognise the costs of a no deal, but it’s important to be honest about what it means,” he told The Independent.

“A no deal will be extremely costly for the sectors most affected and here are the actual numbers to show that.

“For example, if you are in the car industry and you are faced with 10 per cent tariffs on exports to the EU, it’s clear the industry and its supply chains will be badly affected.”

Justine Greening, a former educations secretary, said: “The £22bn estimate cost to Britain of a no-deal departure is a shocking and devastating impact – and behind that number is lost jobs and livelihoods.

“We cannot allow that to happen, above all when parliament has so clearly voted it down.”

Dr Gasiorek said the analysis was the most detailed yet into the consequences of no deal for industry, covering 132 different sectors and following the unveiling of the government’s tariff plans in March.

They would scrap duties on most imports, a “sledgehammer” exposing firms to undercutting by competition from China and other emerging economies, business leaders warned.

The UKTPO analysis finds the industries worst hit by the tariff changes and new costs to trade with the EU would be makers of motor vehicles, chemicals, metals and pharmaceuticals.

However, in percentage terms, fruit growers would suffer the most, followed by manufacturers of fabrics, textiles and fibre optic cables.

Dr Gasiorek added: “The £6bn spending pledge for farmers is some indication of how costly a no-deal Brexit would be for Britain, but agriculture is only one part of the story.

“If you take manufacturing as well, the hit would be more than £20bn – and, at the moment, it doesn’t seem there would be that sort of compensation coming through.”

Significantly, the study does not include the impact on services – accounting for more than 70 per cent of the UK economy – which will be studied in a later report.

Despite that balance, when it comes to UK trade with the EU, goods (£165bn) outweigh services (£110bn), official figures show.

Mr Johnson has been widely attacked, including by the Bank of England governor, for a false claim that tariffs could be avoided after a no deal – under a WTO law called Gatt 24, until a permanent agreement was struck

And both candidates were criticised for arguing their spending pledges could be met from a £27bn ‘war chest’ set aside by the chancellor for a crash-out Brexit.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies said they were misleading voters because the cash was for one year only – whereas the potential £22bn bill for industry will be a year-on-year burden.

A Department for International Trade spokesperson declined to comment on the calculation of a £22bn hit to UK business, instead arguing its planned “temporary tariff regime” would “help to protect British jobs” after a no-deal departure.

“Currently, around 80 per cent of total current UK imports are eligible for tariff free access. Under the temporary tariff, 86 per cent of total imports would be eligible for tariff free access,” a statement said.

We fail 

Boris Johnson’s claim that British kipper producers are being hit by EU food safety rules was branded "fake news" by Brussels, after it emerged the regulations had been imposed by the UK government.

And a European Commissioner told Mr Johnson that as a potential future prime minister he should "keep a cool head", warning him: "A fish rots from the head down."

The Tory leadership favourite dramatically waved a smoked herring above his head as he told Tory activists at a hustings on Wednesday that producers in the Isle of Man were “furious” at the extra costs caused by EU red tape.

He claimed Brussels was demanding that each vacuum-packed kipper sent through the post had to be accompanied by a plastic ice pillow.

And he said that leaving the EU would allow the UK to end this “damaging regulatory overkill”.

But the European Commission food safety spokeswoman Anca Paduraru told a Brussels press conference: “The case described by Mr Johnson falls outside the scope of EU legislation and is purely a UK national competence.”