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Brexit. Why do Brits want Out of the EU?

 
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Tue 22 Jan, 2019 04:36 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
A delay now will not solve their problems.
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Wed 23 Jan, 2019 05:47 am
@cicerone imposter,
An interesting interview of Barnier in the Luxembourg Times (Luxembourg Times is the English version of the Luxemburger Wort a German-language Luxembourgish daily newspaper and the largest newspaper in Luxembourg. The original German version >here<)

Barnier said the UK could minimise the problem posed by the backstop by opting for a softer form of Brexit. He said:
Quote:
If the UK government wants to be more ambitious in its future relationship which is not part of the withdrawal agreement, we can do so, and then come to an agreement on the entire package. That would make the question of the backstop less prominent.

Looking at it objectively, I have the impression that the backstop is not the central issue. Ultimately, the debate in Britain is about what the future of the UK will look like. I believe that we can overcome the current difficulties when we discuss that issue together.

He also claimed there was a “readiness in London” for this sort of approach (although it is not clear in the English version if, by “London”, he meant the government or parliament). He said:

Quote:
We’re cooperating with the British government. Things could start moving rapidly. This depends on the future relationship, like I already said. We are ready to be more ambitious if the British decide to shift their red lines, for example by remaining in a customs union, or participating in the single market. I believe there is a readiness in London for that.

He suggested the EU would only agree to extend article 50 if there were a “stable majority” in the UK for a particular Brexit outcome. He said:
Quote:
If Britain asks for an extension, it has to be approved by EU leaders. They will only agree if three questions are answered: first and second, why and how long? And third, will not that be a problem for holding the EU elections in May? I have no clear legal answer to the third question yet. It is important that the EU’s democratic processes are not disturbed by this, however.

The first two questions are complex and interconnected: it needs a stable majority in London for all laws related to Brexit that need to be adopted. This will need time.

He said, if the UK leaves the EU with no deal, there will have to be checks on goods crossing the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. When it was put to him that the UK did not need to accept the backstop, because in the event of a no-deal Brexit the UK and the EU would try to avoid a hard border anyway, he replied:
Quote:
There will be checks in case of a no-deal-Brexit. We will do everything possible to enforce them unobtrusively. However, that will not be possible with everything. How should we control animals crossing the border? There will have to be checks. Again, the problem arose from Brexit and we expect the UK to take responsibility.

He reaffirmed the EU’s opposition to putting a time limit on the backstop. This is one of Theresa May’s key demands. But Barnier said:
Quote:
The backstop is like an insurance. It is not there to be used. And if so, only provisionally. However, we cannot tie the backstop to a time limit.

Barnier insisted that the Irish border problem was an issue for the EU as a whole, and not just for Ireland. He said:
Quote:
This is a pan-European problem because it is to do with the integrity of the European single market. A product that enters the market in Northern Ireland and then Ireland will find itself in the European market and could continue to travel to Luxembourg. Here we have an obligation to protect European consumers and businesses and therefore we have to control these goods.


Summaries copied from The Guardian
0 Replies
 
Olivier5
 
  1  
Wed 23 Jan, 2019 07:33 am
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:
A delay now will not solve their problems.

The Brits may need more time to sort out what kind of relationship with the EU they want in the future. A Brexit delay would therefore be useful, if and only if they use it to sort out what they want.

If on the other hand British politicians use the additional time to do more of what they've been doing for the past couple of years, i.e. posturing and haggling for short term domestic political gains, then I agree it would be useless to give them more time.
0 Replies
 
Olivier5
 
  1  
Wed 23 Jan, 2019 07:40 am
@georgeob1,
A no-deal Brexit could create an admin backlog at the boarders for the first few months, which is why many people and companies are storing everything they can, such as food, medicines, and parts. The UK is highly dependent on Europe for food and beverages, in particular.

I seriously doubt anyone will die of hunger in the UK post Brexit, but I suppose it's 'better safe than sorry' kind of thinking.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Wed 23 Jan, 2019 08:30 am
@Olivier5,
That's even admitted by the UK's-government.

Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Wed 23 Jan, 2019 10:08 am
@Walter Hinteler,
The Netherlands has sometimes appeared better prepared for Brexit than the UK, with advanced plans to recruit as many as 1,000 extra border officials to deal with potential disruption and extra bureaucracy caused by the UK’s exit.

In addition to private businesses (Sony, Panasonic plus 250 potentially others), the UK has also lost a key EU agency to Amsterdam: the European Medicines Agency, which employs around 900 highly skilled workers.

The Netherlands is not the only country to benefit from the UK’s policies. The EY Financial Services tracker reported earlier this month that 80 out of the 222 finance companies they follow have publicly said they are considering or have confirmed the relocation of UK staff and operations to the continent.

Attractive destinations for finance companies are said to include Dublin, Paris, Luxembourg (47 banks, insurers and asset managers have plans to relocate activities/some activities from the UK to Luxembourg due to Brexit), and Frankfurt.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Wed 23 Jan, 2019 10:15 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
There will be more of those exits.
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Thu 24 Jan, 2019 06:19 am
@cicerone imposter,
Quote:
The head of plane giant Airbus has branded Theresa May’s handling of Brexit a “disgrace” and ramped up a threat to close its plants if the UK crashes out of the EU with no deal.

Tom Enders, the company’s chief executive, urged Britons to ignore “Brexiteers' madness” that it was too well-established to pull out of the country altogether.

"It is a disgrace that, more than two years after the result of the 2016 referendum, businesses are still unable to plan properly for the future,” Mr Enders said.

“We, along with many of our peers, have repeatedly called for clarity, but we still have no idea what is really going on here.”

And he added: “Please don't listen to the Brexiteers' madness which asserts that 'because we have huge plants here we will not move and we will always be here'. They are wrong.”
The IndependentA friend's friend, working on lower manager level, told me such already a couple of months ago: the working climate would be pretty much at rock bottom because no one know what the future could and would bring. So 14,000 jobs are at risk ...

(Airbus employs 14,000 people on the island, 6,000 of them at its factory in Broughton, Wales, where aircraft wings are built, and 3,000 at Filton in the west of England.

Airbus manufactures the wings for almost all of its passenger and cargo aircraft in the UK. Only the new Airbus A220, which the manufacturer has taken over from the Canadian Bombardier Group, is independent. With an unregulated Brexit, Airbus will get enormous difficulties with its supply chains.)
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Thu 24 Jan, 2019 11:02 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Quote:
The BBC is considering Brussels as the location for a new EU base after Brexit to allow it to continue to broadcast across the continent.

Belgium’s prime minister, Charles Michel, has disclosed that he held discussions on the possibility in Davos with the BBC’s director general, Tony Hall.

“Belgium is often on the shortlist of companies eager to anchor in the European Union after Brexit,” Michel said from the Swiss town hosting the World Economic Forum.

It is understood that the BBC is also looking at the Netherlands and Ireland as potential sites for the new offshoot.
The Guardian
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Thu 24 Jan, 2019 11:36 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
As an EU-member country, the UK is part of about 40 trade agreements which the union has with more than 70 countries. If the UK leaves the EU in a no-deal Brexit on 29 March, it will immediately lose these deals.

At the moment more than 100 agreements exist between the EU and Switzerland. These cover areas such as taxation on savings and agriculture.

South Africa has said it is close to signing a trade deal, but nothing has so far been formally agreed.

The UK has already signed deals with Australia and New Zealand, but these are in areas known as mutual recognition agreements and not free trade agreements.
Quote:
So what could the consequences be if trade arrangements are not fully in place by 29 March and the UK leaves with no deal?

In the countries where the UK had no formal trade agreement, both would have to trade under the rules overseen by the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Under this system, every WTO member is free to negotiate its own tariffs - or taxes - on different goods. But under the rules, members have to offer the same tariff to every other WTO country.
BBC: How many trade deals has the UK done?
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Fri 25 Jan, 2019 03:49 am
@Walter Hinteler,

Quote:
Queen Elizabeth has sent a delicately coded message to Britain’s factious political class over Brexit, urging lawmakers to seek common ground and grasp the big picture to resolve the crisis.

With the clock ticking down to March 29th, the date set in law for Britain to leave the European Union, the United Kingdom is in the deepest political crisis in half a century as it grapples with how, or even whether, to exit the European project it joined in 1973.

While the queen (92) did not mention Brexit explicitly in an annual speech to her local Women’s Institute in Norfolk, the monarch said every generation faced “fresh challenges and opportunities.”

“As we look for new answers in the modern age, I for one prefer the tried and tested recipes, like speaking well of each other and respecting different points of view; coming together to seek out the common ground; and never losing sight of the bigger picture,” the queen said.

Though steeped in the conventional language the queen has made her hallmark, the remarks in the context of Britain’s crisis are a signal to politicians to sort out the turmoil that has pushed the world’s fifth largest economy to the brink.
Irish Times



https://i.imgur.com/u9mBZhg.jpg
Quote:
The Queen has urged the country to “seek out the common ground” in a sign of royal nervousness over the divisions caused by Brexit.

Delivering a rebuke to warring politicians, she urged them to respect, not attack, one another while “never losing sight of the bigger picture”.

Her intervention came 64 days before Britain is due to leave the European Union, with no settled plan on how it will be achieved.
The Times
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Fri 25 Jan, 2019 03:59 am
@Walter Hinteler,
France is preparing for the worst, too. An Irish report (RTÉ.ie, Raidió Teilifís Éireann)
Quote:
French finance minister says no-deal Brexit will have concrete consequencesFrance is preparing for the worst as the clock ticks down to Brexit, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said, adding that he does not have any more to give as Prime Minister Theresa May battles to break the deadlock.

Mr Le Maire said a no-deal Brexit would be catastrophic for Britain and that it was up to the government to find a solution before Britain leaves the European Union on 29 March.

He added that in the event of a no-deal, France could not ease the process by offering side deals on aviation or logistics.

"You can't be out of the EU and getting all the benefits of the single market," he told BBC radio.

"That is a clear red line for France."

Speaking from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Mr Le Maire said: "I'm afraid we have nothing to give.

"An agreement is an agreement and the responsibility of Brexit is clearly on the shoulders of the British government, not on the shoulders of the governments of the EU member states.

"It is up to the British government to find the right way out, not us, the European governments.

"If there is a need for any further clarifications, of course we are always open to clarifications.

"But reopening the deal would mean weeks, months, of new negotiations between the UK and the European member states, that is exactly what we want to avoid."

Asked whether it was possible to revisit the Irish backstop within the Withdrawal Agreement, Mr Le Maire added: "It is done. It is done and I think that we have to stick to the deal.

"I don't want to speculate on internal British policy because it is quite complicated and the UK is a sovereign country, but we don't have to speculate. It is up to the British government to take its decisions now."

Asked about whether no-deal measures taken by the EU would be as bad as some groups have suggested, including border delays between Dover and Calais, Mr Le Maire said: "We are aware that a no-deal situation would have concrete consequences and would force us to take some decisions to reinforce the control at our borders.

"So, there are many concrete consequences that would be a consequence of a no-deal situation. But we are prepared to do that."

The EU's Competition Commissioner said Ireland and the EU will "figure out" how to deal with a no-deal Brexit, if it arises.

Speaking on RTÉ's Morning Ireland, Margrethe Vestager said that ending with a no-deal Brexit, would be the "worst case scenario", adding that there is a risk for everyone involved.

When asked if she can see a way in which the integrity of the single market is protected without border infrastructure on the island of Ireland, she said that she is "absolutely sure" that they would find solutions that "everyone can live with", in the event of a no deal.

She said that the EU is standing firmly with Ireland on the issue.

Britain's finance minister Philip Hammond declined to rule out resigning if Mrs May decided to back a no-deal Brexit, putting some distance between himself and MPs including Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd - who has also declined to rule out quitting over no-deal - over the importance of Tuesday's Brexit vote.

Speaking on BBC Radio he said: "What Amber is doing is reflecting a view among some of my colleagues that somehow next Tuesday is high noon, the last chance to make a stand against no-deal.

"I don't think that is the case, I don't think next Tuesday has to be, or indeed will be the high noon of this debate.

"Parliament will want to be confident that it will have an opportunity to express its clear view and some of my colleagues, including some who are in Government, will want to be able to express their view.

"But I don't think next Tuesday is the point when this comes to a head."

Mr Hammond showed the depth of the row inside the Cabinet over a no-deal Brexit, doubling down on his warnings about the damage it would cause to the economy.

He said: "What people were told in the referendum campaign, the majority who voted to leave, they were told that we would be able to get a deal with the European Union, that that would protect our jobs and our prosperity and that our exit could be smooth and orderly to a new relationship with the European Union.

"But it is absolutely clear that if we don't get a deal that is not the way it will work.

"There will be very significant disruption in the short term and a very significant hit to our economy in the medium to long term.

"Our job is to deliver the British people what they believe they were promised in that referendum, to make sure we respect the decision of the referendum but do it in a way that gives them the future prosperity they were promised."
... ... ...
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Fri 25 Jan, 2019 05:49 am
@Walter Hinteler,
PM May echoed the call made by Queen Elizabeth for respectful debate in Britain, May's spokesman said this morning whilst declining to comment directly on her remarks seen as a message to politicians on Brexit.
0 Replies
 
Olivier5
 
  3  
Fri 25 Jan, 2019 08:13 am
Pleading (as I have) for an extension of the deadline by a year, in order for Britain to formulate what future relation it wants with the EU. The op-ed also argues that Britain would benefit from being less self-centered, and should pay greater attention to her European neighbors' wishes, difficulties and language if she wants to get heard by them.

Quote:
If Brexit Britain wants Europe to listen, it must learn to speak European
Timothy Garton Ash

An old New Yorker cartoon shows a middle-aged man at a drinks party saying to another: “But that’s enough about you, let’s talk about me!” This is Brexit Britain talking to the rest of Europe. [...]

Most EU sources agree that it would be relatively straightforward to get an extension until 1 July (thus not significantly affecting the new European parliament). Those extra three months might be sufficient for the UK parliament to agree some tweaked version of May’s deal, or to put the goal of a softer Brexit (somewhere between permanent customs union and Norway plus) into the political declaration. They are nothing like enough to have the national debate we need and then hold a carefully prepared second referendum. Moreover, it is not until after the European elections, the appointment of four top people in the EU (the new presidents of the European council, European commission, European parliament and European Central Bank), and quite possibly the emergence of Kramp-Karrenbauer as head of a new German government, that we will have a clearer idea of what kind of EU it is we will finally be deciding to stay in or leave.

For clarity on both the British and the European side, we need another year, until 29 March 2020.

[...] while there have been many pro-European British politicians, there have been far fewer who actually speak European, in the way that French and Germans, Poles, Spaniards and Italians instinctively do. For they start with both head and heart from the premise of a shared future. Even from pro-European British mouths, the phrase “remain and reform” can all too easily sound like “you must reform so we can remain”. The burden of our song should be the other way round, “we must remain so together we can reform an EU that needs it to survive and prosper”. That melody at least has a sporting chance of finding some sympathetic ears.

If we Brits are to get the time we need for the biggest political decision of our lives, we must speak not just plain English but also elementary European.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/25/brexit-britain-europe-european-article-50
georgeob1
 
  1  
Fri 25 Jan, 2019 10:09 am
I don't claim to know or understand the current temper of the British people or political elites on this matter, other than the evident fact that, despite a good deal of resistance to their sought after accommodation by the EU, accompanied by domestic turmoil over the process of Brexit, they have, so far, persisted.

It is interesting that the UK was very hesitant in seeking EU membership and that when they chose to do so they were initially rebuffed by the EU (I believe Charles De Gaulle was then a major force in the resistance to their membership. ) There was indeed an historical foundation for both the British reluctance and the Continental resistance to membership, and elements of it are likely at work today on the matter.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Fri 25 Jan, 2019 11:37 am
@Olivier5,
I agree. Waiting for Brexit is the best option during which time they can actually assess the pros and cons of leaving the EU. Emotion is not important; economics is. Anyone who have studied Economics understands that open trade is the best policy for all concerned. It provides for quality and price competition. If they do not wish that, it seems self-defeating. However, there are issues of "balance of trade" which can be harmful. The evidence is in the fact that China now holds a good portion of the US debt, and that debt is supported by our social security trust fund. It primarily has to do with the currency exchange rates, and the basis of the country's GDP and per capita GDP. China is now buying large chunks of US property. That is the cost we are paying for buying cheap Chinese products, because China is not buying equal values of goods and services from the US. They're buying US property. The early access of China buying property in Vancouver should have been lessons for us in the USA. When they started buying property in Canada, the price of property increased dramatically to the point where Canadians were having difficulty buying homes in their own country. They were priced out of the market by outside forces. Here's the report on China's purchase of property in Silicon Valley. http://www.hqap.com/PDF/news/Adds%20to%20Purchases%20of%20Silicon%20Valley%20Commercial%20Property.pdf As a footnote: The cost of property in Silicon Valley is now one of the highest in the country. Luckily, we bought our home in the mid-1970's when prices weren't impacted by the high tech industry that later developed here. Our modest home is now worth in the neighborhood of $2 million. We couldn't afford to buy our own home. One of the benefits of living here is the fact that it's considered one of the safest cities in the country. https://patch.com/california/mountainview/sunnyvale-gets-americas-top-safe-city-ranking
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Fri 25 Jan, 2019 01:21 pm
A leaked report shows authorities were urged to avoid disclosing ‘potentially damaging information’ on preparations:
Kent councils and emergency services advised by government how to avoid revealing no-deal Brexit plans under Freedom of Information
Quote:
Organisations in Kent preparing contingency plans for Brexit were advised by the government on how to resist releasing information about their work to avoid causing public concern.

A leaked report has revealed how councils, emergency services and other public bodies in the county given tips on how to avoid disclosing details under Freedom of Information rules.

It advised bosses to follow guidance from the Department for Exiting the EU (DExEU) and showed ways to keep emergency plans under wraps - and in some circumstances even refuse to say whether it held any information.
[...]
The report also reveals the government has tied ports to non-disclosure agreements, preventing them from releasing any details about their discussions.

Under a section headed: “Guidance on Non-disclosure Agreements” it quotes recommendations from the government’s Cross Border Delivery Group.

This says that while port authorities are free to share information with other organisations, these agreements “remain in effect for general disclosure into the public domain.”

A statement issued by Kent County Council on behalf of the forum said: "We are keen to provide our partners with advice on how they can prepare for a worst case EU Exit scenario.

"So that they can share it with their customers, the partner pack is about to be updated without the previous FOI guidance and under an ‘official’ marking.

"It will be reissued in the next few days, together with a pack for businesses.”

“The original pack included guidance previously provided to partners from the Department for Exiting the EU, regarding how FOI requests should be handled.” ... ... ...
0 Replies
 
Olivier5
 
  1  
Fri 25 Jan, 2019 01:25 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Technically, the easiest way out of the looming no deal outcome seems to me as follows: 1 The UK asks for a 3 month extension to sort out what deal they want and agree on some new tweaked version with the EU. 2 The EU parliament elections take place without the Brits taking part (they can’t be on both sides of the negotiation table as that would create a conflict of interest). 3 If the 3 month extension is not enough, the UK then asks for another extention. 4 At some point in time, the UK choses between no brexit, soft brexit and hard brexit or whatever. 5 In the event they chose no brexit, they then hold their EU parliamentary elections.

Personally, my money has been on a no-deal outcome since the publication of the pretty ridiculous (and now forgotten) Chequers proposal. Since then I haven’t seen anything yet that made me change this prognosis. Let’s see if the Queen’s speech can shake them out of their short-termism.
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Fri 25 Jan, 2019 01:43 pm
@Olivier5,
Olivier5 wrote:
Let’s see if the Queen’s speech can shake them out of their short-termism.


https://i.imgur.com/qW79hQQ.jpg
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Fri 25 Jan, 2019 02:44 pm
@Olivier5,
What do you think will be the final outcome?
0 Replies
 
 

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