Brexit. Why do Brits want Out of the EU?

Major issues are still to be resolved before the UK can agree a deal with the European Union, Downing Street has said, cautioning that “optimistic” comments from EU leaders might not result in agreement at the October summit.

Theresa May’s spokesman said movement was needed from the EU and no withdrawal agreement could be agreed without a “precise” political declaration on the framework of post-Brexit relations.

“We have always said that we are working hard for a deal this autumn and that continues at pace,” the prime minister’s spokesman said.

No 10 has underlined that both a withdrawal agreement and a precise framework for the future relationship must be agreed simultaneously.

“It’s worth me pointing out that there is a difference between people talking optimistically about a deal and a deal – including both a withdrawal agreement and a future framework – actually being agreed,” the spokesman said. “There remain big issues to work through and, as the PM has said, this will require movement on the EU side.”

The comments indicate that Downing Street believes it is unlikely a deal will be reached at the summit next week and it is likely to be pushed back until an anticipated emergency summit in November.

The EU plans to publish a short political declaration on the future trade relationship next Wednesday. It is said to be around 10 pages long, which No 10 has hinted would be unacceptable. “There can be no withdrawal agreement without a precise future framework,” May’s spokesman said.

“We have said that when MPs take part in the meaningful vote [on the final Brexit deal], they must be able to do so on an informed basis.”

New rounds of technical talks between officials, including the prime minister’s chief Brexit adviser, Olly Robbins, are set to take place in Brussels this week. However, Downing Street would not confirm an expected meeting between the Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab, and the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, this week, prompting speculation that progress had stalled.

The British government is frustrated by the other 27 E.U. member states’ tough line on Brexit. The British press thought that the European Union would soften its position at the recent Salzburg summit of E.U. heads of government. Instead, the member states fully endorsed the E.U. commission’s uncompromising negotiating stance. What E.U. leaders thought of as just repeating their position that Britain would not be allowed to cherry-pick the bits of the E.U. they wanted was described by British media as an “ambush” of British Prime Minister Theresa May.

The British government has been surprised that E.U. states aren’t prepared to make concessions on British access to the E.U.’s single market. After all, a “hard” Brexit that limits future cooperation would lead to an estimated fall of about 2.6 percent in the E.U.-27’s GDP, and the fallout from a “no deal Brexit” would probably be much larger.

The E.U. has excellent reasons to play hardball

The E.U.-27 have good reasons to maintain their tough negotiation stance. First, they have bargaining power. Even though the E.U.-27 have a lot to lose from Brexit, a bad breakup would be much worse for Britain. This gives the E.U.-27 more bargaining leverage, which they have used. Furthermore, the remaining member states worry that allowing Britain to enjoy the benefits of E.U. integration without sharing the costs would encourage other member states to leave the E.U., too. My research with colleagues has shown that voters are more likely to want their governments to take a hard line with the E.U. if they think that the E.U. will not take a hard line with them. Before the Brexit referendum, for example, only 22 percent of “Leave” voters believed the E.U. would not allow them to remain in the single market. Similar dynamics also drove voting behavior in referendums in Switzerland and Greece.

The fear that Brexit could encourage more countries to leave gives the E.U. a powerful incentive to make Britain’s exit as unattractive as possible. This helps explain why all E.U.-27 member states strongly support the E.U.’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier.

The E.U. public backs this tough stance

The E.U.-27’s public backs their leaders’ tough negotiating stance. In an E.U.-wide online survey of 9,423 E.U.-27 citizens conducted by Dalia Research in June 2018 as part of my larger research project on Brexit, almost every second person who responded said that the E.U. should take a hard or very hard line in the Brexit negotiations. In contrast, only about 12 percent wanted to accommodate Britain. People who responded also overwhelmingly support their national government’s Brexit negotiation positions, most of which are very tough.

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Contrary to influential Brexiteers who claim that “lots of Europeans are uneasy at the line the [E.U.] Commission is taking on Brexit,” there is a high level of agreement about how to handle the Brexit negotiations.
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Taken together, strong public support for the E.U.’s approach to Brexit, the E.U.’s greater bargaining power and the risk that accommodating Britain might undermine the long-term stability of the E.U. make it unlikely that the E.U. will soften its position. The outcome of the Brexit process will thus depend on when and how much Britain shifts its red lines.

Food supplier proposes vegetarian dishes in case of no-deal Brexit

Insect-filled chocolates, rat hair-infested noodles, and orange juice containing maggots are just some of the “horrors” UK consumers could be forced to accept if post-Brexit Britain signs a wide-ranging trade deal with the USA.

In the US, producers adhere to a “Defects Levels Handbook,” which sets out the maximum number of foreign bodies like maggots, insect fragments and mould that can be in food products before they are put on the market.

For example, US producers are allowed to include up to 30 insect fragments in a 100g jar of peanut butter; as well as 11 rodent hairs in a 25g container of paprika; or 3mg of mammalian excreta (typically rat or mouse excrement) per each pound of ginger.

In the EU there are no allowable limits for foreign bodies in food products.

Existing checks on agricultural goods travelling between Great Britain and Northern Ireland would have to increase ten-fold after Brexit, the EU's chief negotiator has said – an ultimatum that is likely to enrage Northern Irish unionists and eurosceptics.

Theresa May has gathered her senior ministers for briefings on the Brexit negotiations as the fierce battle to agree the shape of a deal with Brussels reaches its final weeks.

Ahead of next week's key EU Council summit, Downing Street admitted there were still "big issues to resolve" while officials in Brussels said there was "no breakthrough yet" in the talks.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which props up Ms May's government, dramatically flexed its muscles by insisting its 10 MPs would block the Budget - and potentially topple the government - if the prime minister breaches its Brexit red lines.

In a warning shot to Ms May, DUP MPs failed to back the government in voting against an amendment to an Agriculture Bill on Wednesday.

EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier also warned that checks on goods over the Irish border could increase tenfold after Britain leaves bloc - an ultimatum likely to infuriate the Northern Irish politicians.

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LONDON (Reuters) - Prime Minister Theresa May will never agree to a backstop plan to prevent a hard border with European Union member Ireland that means Britain could be permanently tied to the bloc’s customs rules, her spokeswoman said on Friday.

Britain’s international trade, environment and Brexit ministers told Prime Minister Theresa May at a meeting on Thursday that they are concerned the whole of Britain could remain in the customs union for an open-ended period of time, the BBC said.

“The prime minister would never agree to a deal which could trap the UK in a backstop permanently,” the spokeswoman told reporters.

The latest batch of contingency papers for a no-deal Brexit warn rail services could be suspended without specific agreements with France and Belgium.

The Single Electricity Market on the island of Ireland may cease to operate, hitting consumers on both sides.

Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab said the UK was prepared for all eventualities.

Ministers have insisted they are striving for a negotiated agreement ahead of the UK's exit on 29 March 2019.

But they are continuing to provide information to the public and businesses about the consequences if this does not happen.

The latest tranche of documents, the fourth to be published so far, state that in the event of a no-deal exit, some train operators will have to apply for new licences, certificates and authorisations from an EU rail regulator to continue services.

Operators such as Eurostar, which currently only hold a UK licence, would be affected unless individual agreements are struck with countries on the continent.

Mr Raab said people should not hold off buying rail tickets as the UK would work with its French, Belgian and Dutch counterparts to ensure they were able to travel and goods could be moved.

But Labour said this would "not reassure anyone" as "ministers have barely scratched the surface of what would need to be done in the event of the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal".

Secret plans to allow an extension of the transition period in the Brexit withdrawal agreement could result in the UK living under all EU rules well beyond the 21-months so far negotiated, the Guardian can reveal.

The expected offer of an extension is designed to convince Arlene Foster, the leader of the Democratic Unionist party, that the “backstop” plan to avoid the creation of a hard border on the island of Ireland will never come into force.

If such a clause was triggered, the whole of the country would be locked into a prolonged period of what EU diplomats have previously described as a state of “vassalage”, with the House of Commons being forced to accept Brussels regulations without having any say on them.

It is also likely that the UK would need to make additional budget contributions on top of its £39bn divorce bill to cover the extra timeit would benefit from EU membership. It would not, however, have any representation in the bloc’s decision-making institutions despite the extra period under EU law.
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LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Theresa May struggled on Friday to find consensus on a Brexit plan that would be acceptable to her ministers, her divided Conservative Party and the Northern Irish lawmakers who prop up her minority government.

Brexit negotiations with the European Union have accelerated and become more positive over the past week, though significant hurdles remain, finance minister Philip Hammond said.

“What has happened over the last week, 10 days, is that there has been a measurable change in pace,” he told the BBC.

“But that shouldn’t conceal the fact that we still have some big differences left to resolve,” Hammond said. “So process is a lot more positive this week - substance still very challenging.”

Multiple Labour MPs have told The Independent they are prepared to support the Brexit agreement Theresa May hopes to bring back from Brussels, boosting the prime minister’s chances of forcing it through parliament.

The MPs include the first to state publicly that they will struggle to vote against a deal secured in Brussels if the alternative is a no-deal Brexit – even if, as expected, Jeremy Corbyn orders his party to oppose it.

They say that crashing out of the EU would be a disaster for their constituents, while also fearing a backlash from voters accusing them of blocking Brexit.

It comes as Ms May appears resigned to having to rely on Labour votes to secure parliament’s support for her deal in the face of staunch opposition from many of her own Eurosceptic backbenchers.

Labour MPs told The Independent that at least 15 could rebel against Mr Corbyn and back the government, which could be enough to tip the balance in the Commons in favour of the deal.
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Labour is expected to instruct its MPs to vote against Ms May’s deal, which it will say does not meet the six strict tests the party has set out.

However, one MP said: “Everyone knows the six tests were designed to never be met.”

Mr Corbyn and his team are likely to warn MPs how members will react if they vote with the government and help the Conservatives stay in power.

They will tell MPs that voting down Ms May’s deal would either force her to return to Brussels to renegotiate a softer Brexit, or trigger a general election – a suggestion some MPs have already dismissed.

“The suggestion that parliament could somehow force her to go crawling back to Brussels, or that Labour could force a general election, is nonsense,” one said.

EU leaders are set to hold an extraordinary “no deal” Brexit summit in November to deal with the potential disaster of the UK crashing out of the bloc should Theresa May fail to deliver decisive progress on the Irish border issue this week, the Guardian can reveal.

A special meeting of heads of state and government at which the EU had hoped to finally sign off on the Brexit negotiations next month will instead be turned into a emergency summit to discuss the bloc’s response to a cliff-edge Brexit.

The plan is set to pile further pressure on the prime minister by illustrating the EU’s seriousness about allowing the UK to crash out if the alternative is a deal that would undermine the integrity of the single market, or prove to be unacceptable to the Republic of Ireland.

The European council president, Donald Tusk, had warned May last month that he needed to see “maximum progress” by this week’s European council meeting of leaders on the issue of avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland.

A Brexit summit to finalise the terms of the political declaration on the future trade relationship has been pencilled in for the weekend of 17-18 November, in the event of the the negotiating teams finding a compromise position on avoiding a hard border. EU sources said they had expected that summit to be a sombre ceremonial event, at which Brussels would say goodbye to the UK and complete the political declaration.

But in response to concerns over the ability of the prime minister to hold her government together and keep to a deal, the EU is now planning an alternative use for the November summit should it be required.

EU ambassadors gathering in Luxembourg on Friday evening had been told by Sabine Weyand, the EU’s deputy chief negotiator, that talks were progressing well, and that results might be made public as early as Monday. One senior EU diplomat said: “The wedding knot is tied”.

The two negotiating teams were set to make an assessment of the state of play on Sunday evening. A leaked EU planning document, obtained by the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung, noted: “Deal made, nothing made public (in theory).“

But the volatile domestic situation for the prime minister remains the greatest risk to a deal.

Internal government emails leaked to the Observer revealed on Sunday that the DUP leader, Arlene Foster, had privately let it be known that following a “hostile and difficult” meeting with the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, last week that she was now “ready” for a no-deal scenario and that she regarded this as the “likeliest outcome”.

The former Brexit secretary David Davis, meanwhile, has appealed to the cabinet to ‘“exert its collective authority” to kill off May’s plans to keep the UK indefinitely in a customs union to solve the problem of avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland.

Last month, the European commission’s secretary general, Martin Selmayr, told member states their governments would need to decide how far it would be in the EU’s interest to mitigate some of the impacts of a scenario in which the UK leaves the bloc without a deal.

A senior EU diplomat said leaders at the November summit would also want to coordinate their responses in areas where national governments have competence, such as with regard to contingency measures to avoid long queues of lorries waiting at customs, or in aviation and haulage.

A senior EU diplomat said: “Preparations on contingency are really advancing in almost all member states. We’re in close contact with our neighbours and exchanging all these issues. The commission has beefed up its team working on contingency.”

“This is a parallel track. We’re going to do this anyhow whatever the outcome because even if there’s a positive outcome [this week] we’ll still need to continue preparedness and contingency because we can never exclude the possibility that negotiations will break down at a later stage”, the diplomat added. “Unless we have a final deal agreed upon by the House of Commons and the British parliamentary system we’ll carry on with our preparedness and contingency. That’s normal work.”

The UK and EU agreed in December, and again in March, that the withdrawal agreement would contain an Irish protocol in which a “backstop” solution for avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland under any circumstances would be spelled out.

The EU has proposed that if a trade deal or bespoke technological solution for avoiding a hard border was not at hand by the end of the transition period, Northern Ireland would in effect stay in the single market and customs union as the rest of the UK withdraws.

May has insisted this would involve the constitutional dislocation of the UK. She is instead proposing a temporary EU-UK customs union, and for Northern Ireland to stay in the single market, should that be agreed at a later date by Stormont.

a no-deal Brexit is "probably inevitable"