edgarblythe wrote:The probability of human/alien contact (barring Will Smith movies) is so remote I venture to say it may never happen.
Hi, Edgar. The likelihood of meeting intelligent extraterrestrials depends on:
1. If We Go To Them
This depends on whether we ever succeed in creating a form of transportation capable of taking us to the stars, and the density of alien life in the group of stars near us.
2. If We Pick Up Radio Waves and Can Tell That They are Artificial
This depends on the density of civilizations capable of transmitting with enough power, and the fraction of the civilizations which could do it that would wish to. For us to hear such signals, they would likely have to be unidirectional, so there may be a factor connected to the possible number of directions they could direct such transmissions.
3. If They Arrive in Orbit Around the Earth.
This depends on the density of alien civilizations who are capable of crossing interstellar distances, compared to the number of solar systems they might potentially visit.
We don't really know the numbers to attach to these factors. For instance, speaking about them coming to Earth, we really don't know the denisty of starfaring civilizations, but if it is great enough, there would be no reason why they couldn't appear in Earth orbit today. Or perhaps the density is very low and the Earth only gets a visit every billion years.