Historic Indonesian election poised to commence.

Here is the BBC's take on the front runner - Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/3725301.stm

Their report begins:

"As Indonesians prepare for their first direct presidential election on 5 July, the latest opinion polls suggest a retired general is the frontrunner.

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, also known by his initials SBY, is drawing support from his image as a man of integrity, a strong communicator and firm leader in times of crisis.


A strong image is seen as key
Mr Yudhoyono is probably best known internationally for his leading role in Indonesia's fight against terrorism in the wake of the Bali bombing in 2002."




A not entirely un-reassuring comment for Australians aware that radical Islamic terrorist organisation, Jemaiyah Islamiah, not only wishes to target Australia for its support of the US, but has a leader who wishes to see an Islamic state across a region that embraces northern Australia - however, given Indonesia's unfortunate history with corrupt, repressive, dictatorial regimes, one can only hope that the elected leader, whoever they may be, is wise and just.

We had some interesting stories about the Indonesian election campaign here in the papers ... intrigueing.

Campaign rallies seem to be mostly about song-singing and flag-waving, less about rousing people's emotions about any issue; one opinion poll in fact showed voters concerned most about the character of the president, the image of the president, and actually least of the ten or so items on the list about the candidates' points of view. OK, so its the same here or in the US - just there it seems to be taken to the nth degree. All the candidates promise the same anyway - they dont try to differentiate themselves on topics at all, just as persons and by appealing to traditional constituencies (oh, and allegedly by handing out money and food).

Sukarnoputri, who before the campaign started was expected to either win or come in a good second, turned out to be hopeless at it. She is so bad in debating that her minders have kept her out of every debate except for the very last. It didnt go very well. At the beginning of the debate, each candidate was asked to convey in three minutes what they stood for and what they believed in. Sukarnoputri started to read aloud, in a flat, dull voice, from a lengthy pre-prepared text - which she had only half-finished when she was cut off at the end of the three minutes.

Perhaps for this reason Sukarnoputri didnt take part in the TV-programme Ode to Indonesia on Sunday, the night before the elections. Amien Rais was there, the leader of the Muslim political parties since back when dictator Suharto's Golkar was still in power (though contested in that role this time by a competitor). So was Wiranto, the general who's now candidating for Golkar. He's liked for being a "strong" leader, but distrusted for his 'bloody hands' hands re: Timor (where he's claimed to have helped or tolerated the West-Timor militias wrecking bloodshed and destruction in East-Timor).

Course, neither of that was a surprise - since Sukarnoputri and the favourite, SBY, have been avoiding the debates, the Indonesians have seen the two debate each other more often than they care to remember. But this time SBY, the unexpected frontrunner, was there too. However, this last-night debate wasnt quite what we'd expect the night before the elections - <grins>:


SBY, I gather, is a former minister from Sukarnoputris government who's less colourful than the other candidates, but has the name of being a scrupulous, sincere candidate - Mr. Clean. Definitely better him than Rais or Wiranto, I'd say.

Radio Australia analysis of candidates:

http://goasiapacific.com/specials/indon/candidates.htm

Former general leading poll - NOT Wiranto:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200407/s1147343.htm


Though - you and I seem the only ones interested, Nimh!!! Sigh.


In a sense, I think Sukarnoputri was in something of the same position as Indira Gandhi and Benazir Bhutto - her father, Indonesia's fascinating early leader, toppled in effect by Suharto, meant her Sukarno name cast a halo effect upon her - especially in her quiet anti-Suharto movement leadership towards the end of his corrupt and repressive reign.

Her quiet seemed dignified and full of promise to people, then - though analyses from people who knew the situation well suggested there was little sense or ability behind the facade - however, unlike Indira Gandhi (who combined the magic of the Nehru dynasty and the Gandhi name) and even, arguably, Benazir Bhutto, there has proven to be little ability or leadership in the woman.

Deb, as an ignorant American, I must admit to having a hard time thinking of Australia as being located in southern Asia. It is so like the US and UK in so many ways that I and many of my countrymen and women don't think of its location as having a particular importance in its politics; I know, it's stupid and ignorant, but fearfully widespread.

This quote from one of your links...



...makes me hope that Yudhoyono wins the election, for the simple reason that people who are willing to speak up and risk their careers, are so rare in any country.

When so many Australians were killed in the terrorist bombing, I also realized for the first time, that Australians are in particular danger from nearby Muslim contries.

We do need to be reminded--thanks!!

Well, Diane - Indonesia has always been a very tolerant Islamic state - with occasional nasty outbursts - but more directed at local Chinese than anyone.

There HAS now been infection by radical Islamist terror groups - linked to Al Quaeda - and they have caused grief not only in Bali, but in Indonesia itself. The government is very concerned. Overwhelmingly, though, Indonesian Muslims are extremely tolerant. Balinese are largely a mix of Hinduism and local religious elements which create a lovely whole.

The Australian capitals of Darwin and Perth are closer to Asian capitals than they are to any other major Australian city.

Thanks for the update, whoa! So SBY is leading - but by a way smaller margin than expected. Last poll I'd seen had SBY up at some 40% and Sukarnoputri, Wiranto and Rais battling for second place with little over 10% each. In that light, Sukarnoputri's 28% and Wiranto's 22%, in these early returns, are kinda sensational.

If this holds, I guess that would be a victory for the traditional party machines (Golkar and PDI-P) over SBY's fresh, new voice ... Second round would get quite unpredictable, I think!

Uh-oh ... the chad hits again ... <refraining from speculating about the recount>

http://www.goasiapacific.com/news/GoAsiaPacificBNA_1147299.htm

Oh for Pete's sake!

However - here, the system made sense.

The voters were punching a hole by the picture of their chosen candidate - hence removing worries re illiteracy - well, mebbe they could have made a mark with a pencil?

Some papers were not properly opened by electors. Sadly, their intentions are clear - but the votes likely informal. This is very sad.

Hmmm - surprises!!!

"Megawati closing gap to keep hold on power
By Sian Powell, Jakarta correspondent
July 10, 2004
FROM long-shot to fancied contender, President Megawati Sukarnoputri has pulled off a surprising transformation in the Indonesian presidential election.

As it became increasingly certain she would contest the second round of the election in September, analysts said her chances of beating her former security minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and retaining the nation's top job were likewise improving.

Political analyst Dewi Fortuna Anwar said Ibu Mega, or Mother Mega, as she is known, has certain built-in advantages. According to the rules, the two candidates can only campaign for three days before the September 20 ballot. But as President, Ms Megawati will be highly visible for the entire run-up."


Full story:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,10093555%255E2703,00.html