Of course, in those dictatorial governments the rules pay the bills but that is because they own everything, including all of the people. Liberty and freedom are rights that individuals can, and often are, deprived of. For those priceless treasures we will give up our wealth, our lives and even the lives of those we love. I'm not so sure that liberty and freedom are gifts that can be given, but a neighborly hand ought to be extended. Sometimes free peoples willingly choose slavery. We might shake our heads in disbelieve, but I'm afraid that slavery must have charms beyond my understanding.
In re. DPRK. It is truly difficult to negotiate with them because for a half century they have pursued a policy of not negotiating in good faith. They come to the table reluctantly, with "un-negotiable" and unrealistic demands. They bluster, threaten and generally behave boorishly at the table. They have no compunction against the most blatant lies, and will refuse to acknowledge the most common truths. After marathon sessions, sometimes lasting years, they may give way on some minor point only to take up a similar stance on another. Only when faced with a direct credible threat will they stop the foolishness, and then only momentarily. They really do believe in the value of threats and brutal force. They who doesn't is either a fool to be taken advantage of, or a liar to be threatened. Over fifty years few promises have been wrung from the DPRK, and in every instance they've broken their promises almost immediately.
Kim Jong-Il has two overriding priorities.
First, the continuation of his personal power, and the continuation of the Kim Dynasty. North Korea is totally in the control of the Kim's. They totally control both the Party and the Military. Jong-Il is a master at manipulating North Korean public sentiment, and beyond propaganda he will use brutal force without a moment's hesitation. No sane person in the DPRK would ever fail to "love" the Dear Leader, or disbelieve what the government's version of the truth. There are no known elements within the DPRK that might present a counterbalance to whatever Kim wants to do. Kim and his family live very well, and those chosen to serve him are also richly rewarded compared to the typical North Korean. Kim has taken the famine relief food from the mouths of children to feed his army. There is little doubt that one of his three sons will succeed him, though it is still unclear which is the designated heir.
Second, the reunification of the Korean peninsula under the complete rule of the DPRK. Though the DPRK is one of the poorest, most backward countries in the world, Kim is determined to extend his control to the whole peninsula. To that end he has one of the largest standing armies in the world. It is mostly massed within a hundred miles of the DMZ, and poised less than 25 miles from Seoul. The North has a large advantage in sheer numbers of infantry and special forces. The DPRK has a large arsenal of short and medium range missiles of varying capability, and probably does have some untested nuclear warheads. The army is in hardened positions, often deep inside mountains. Numerous military tunnels are extended right up to the DMZ, and occasionally under it. It has large artillery assets capable of reaching Seoul. Special Forces units regularly conduct covert operations into ROK. Inside ROK there are literally thousands of DPRK agents working on behalf of the North. The Student Movement and political parties are riddled with DPRK agents. Spies have for decades probed US and ROK military organizations, and carried out preparations for invasion.
On the other hand, the infrastructure in the North is insufficient to support prolonged and high intensity combat. The North hasn't the sort of logistical resources to maintain combat operations over a long period. The ground and water transportation systems are very exposed to aerial attack, and the DPRK has very little in the way of naval assets. They have some coastal craft and some conventional soviet submarines capable of operating in the region. The command structure is servile and will not seize initiative easily. The C-cubed system, though linked by hardened fiber optics, is weak and vulnerable in several areas. Their air force is relatively small, obsolete, and poorly trained. Their infantry is drawn from the peasant class, is treated brutally, and has been in garrison for decades without baptism by fire. If the army moves out of its bunkers they will move into pre-registered artillary fire zones and be vulnerable to air attack. ROK/US forces have been preparing the battlefield for fifty years, and are charged only with holding and delaying the invasion until reinforcements arrive. The North's Fifth Column may be the most dangerous element if the war gets hot again.
Time is working against Jong-Il and the DPRK. The man grows older, and his economy is in ruins. Everything in the DPRK will get harder in the future. Famine is a constant danger, and foreign exchange isn't likely to improve. Oppression breeds opposition, even if it is hidden deep in the unconscious hearts of the people. The temptation for the military or party to attempt a coupe may grow in time. The dynastic succession is unclear, and might tear the DPRK apart after Jong-Il departs the scene.
The danger is that Jong-Il will make a mistake and misjudge the consequences of his appetites. The DPRK may become more involved in supplying terrorists than it already is. Development of long-range nuclear capable missiles is worrisome. Efforts to increase and test his nuclear arsenal rightly makes the world nervous. There are elements in ROK, especially the youth, who are tired of the long Korean War and don't see the danger posed by Jong-Il and the DPRK. Moves to reduce US forces in Korea and/or theater can be misinterpreted, though they probably do not unnecessarily put our forces at too much risk.
All of this points to the wisdom of our current policies with respect to North Korea. No more bilateral negotiations directly with them; South Korea has been shocked out of its ill-conceived "Sunshine" policy by the prospect of American withdrawl. Japan and China have been informed that they have a very dangerous neighbor and that we expect them to deal with it. Japan must contemplate a nuclear armed North Korea, and China must contemplate what might be Japan's reaction to this. Now North Korea must deal with its more populous and economically powerful neighbors on every side. The United States will no longer be maneuvered by these nations into acting as if this is solely our problem.
The U.S. certainly must itself deal with the prospect of nuclear proliferation by North Korea. However we have already demonstrated our ability to monitor ships leaving North Korean ports and to intercept those we suspect of carrying contraband at sea far from the country.
George,
Its been awhile since we crossed paths. I've missed you, but pleased that you concur with my analysis. To bad that you weren't able to make the ABQ Gathering, I think you would have enjoyed the talk. If you find yourself in our neighborhood, do stop by for a visit.
Our distinguished UK ally will be expected to see wierd and report nice...that's his job. What would you expect when the nuclear-equipped flea threatens his Giant prosperous brother and the ROW...especially since face-saving withdrawl and ransom are in the balance. Read again closely and see the horror of NKorea for what it is.
Oh, Chuckster, you know him personally as well ?
