Ebola in The USA

@Miller,

That'll probably make your day.

I consider you racist. I presume you disagree.

It has been demonstrated.

@ossobuco,

what's the zero for, simply google and you can find they can treat it.

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@Finn dAbuzz,

I believe that's three rings of contact - his close contacts (12-18), their close contacts, and his more casual contacts. The epidemiologists are happy (not the right word given the context) to have identified patient zero in the US. They can monitor these 80-100 people and get a good understanding about viral transmission here. The family he was visiting apparently didn't take the isolation order seriously and are now in lockdown inside their home. Scary three weeks ahead for them.

I doubt there will be a pandemic with ebola in the first world. The sanitary conditions and the mode of transmission both point against it. An airborne virus that's much easier to catch could and does occasionally result in pandemics. Ebola is easier to catch than HIV, but harder to catch than the flu.

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@JPB,

JPB wrote:

I like this perspective

Quote:
... the guidelines have been out for months,” said Dr. Susan McLellan, a professor at Tulane University’s School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine who recently returned from a trip to West Africa, where she was treating victims of the current outbreak. “It was inevitable that someone was going to come to the United States and get sick while they were here.”

snip - goes on to explain about treatment precautions

McLellan said there is little cause for the average person to fear Ebola and that with proper precautions it can be prevented from spreading. And, she said, there are other health concerns that far outweigh the threat from Ebola in the United States.

“If you are worried about dying a horrible death, buckle your seat belt, stop smoking, wear a helmet on your bicycle and take all the guns out of your house,” McLellan said. “Then you can worry about Ebola.”

source

To me it sounds like an extremist trying to take advantage of Ebola to press an anti-Freedom agenda.

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@JPB,

What would happen hypothetically if this virus starts to mutate... like HIV virus did?

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@Ragman,

There are already numerous strains so I'm not sure what you mean. Do you mean that the modes of transmission might change? Doubtful. Scientific American has an article about that conjecture in last month's issue.

Quote:

But interviews with several infectious diseases experts reveal that whereas such a mutation—or more likely series of mutations—might physically be possible, it’s highly unlikely. In fact, there’s almost no historical precedent for any virus to change its basic mode of transmission so radically. “We have so many problems with Ebola, let’s not make another one that, of course, is theoretically possible but is pretty way down on the list of likely issues," says infectious diseases expert William Schaffner of Vanderbilt University. "Everything that is happening now can easily be comprehensively explained by person-to-person spread via body contact. We don’t have to invoke anything else.”

[ Scientific American]

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@JPB,

Sorry that was pre-coffee and I didn't complete my thought. What happens if (or when) the Ebola virus starts to mutate in such a way that it can be contracted while the germ is airborne?

{Edit: asked and answered. It is theoretically possible. The powers-that-be are trying as they should to prevent a panic here.}

1 Reply

@Finn dAbuzz,

This is nonsense. Sure, 80-100 people sounds like a lot of people. But let's guess. Out of these 80-100 people, take a guess on how many of them will contract Ebola.

I bet the number will be 0 or 1. And the number of secondary infections (people who are infected by people who were infected by this man) will be zero. We are in a wealthy country with a very good public health system that is doing more than due diligence.

This is not how pandemics start. There is zero risk of an Ebola epidemic in the US.

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@Ragman,

Quote:

What happens if (or when) the Ebola virus starts to mutate in such a way that it can be contracted while the germ is airborne?

The same thing that would happen if the Yellowstone caldera explodes, or we are hit by a giant asteroid (both of these are theoretically possible)... not to mention gamma ray bursts (my personal favorite imagined end of the human race).

Lots of people will die. The Universe is full of horrific but not very likely ways for us to all die.

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@maxdancona,

Quote:

We are in a wealthy country with a very good public health system that is doing more than due diligence.

This is a misconception and a bit misleading. In advanced countries where (for the most part) good hygiene i s practiced, there is still a chance that people are not exposed to some infectious germs and as such have not had the chance to develop enough protective antibodies.

For example after seeing Ken Burns historic series on the Roosevelt family, the theory goes that FDR as a child and young adult was so isolated from the masses of public that a disease (polio) that many people in the mainstream had developed immunity to, struck him down due to his lack of exposure to the polio-myelitis germs that were circulated.

Apparently polio generally strikes an individual in their youth; however, it struck him down at the age of 39. As a well-to-do country with good hygiene for the most part, and access to medical care, we are STILL subject to spread of such illnesses. Think back to SARS outbreak in North America a few years ago. While not an epidemic, it certainly spread like wildfire in North America, particularly Toronto-metro.

Quote:

There is zero risk of an Ebola epidemic in the US.

This is simply NOT true. It might be highly unlikely for an epidemic, but not zero chance. I've confirmed this with a career healthcare administrator with detailed knowledge of immunology.

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@Ragman,

I would venture that the risk against an ebola epidemic in this country is 99.9999%

1 Reply

@JPB,

I doubt there will be a pandemic too, but only because of the nature of the virus. The CDC talks a better game than it plays.

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@maxdancona,

What's nonsense? That this is how pandemics start? That's certainly how they do. I didn't assert that there would be an ebola pandemic so come down off your high horse.

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@farmerman,

While,I won't quibble over the numbers, I would say it's a bit less than the number you state. I would state that it's highly unlikely but NOT A ZERO chance, sad to say.

CDC and the FEDs are interested in preventing a panic and so am I. I'm also interested in taking realistic actions and practical precautions and education about risk.

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@Ragman,

For some reason max wishes to remain in lockstep with the CDC. Of course there isn't zero risk. It's low but it isn't zero, and while our health system is excellent and maybe as good as anyone can expect, it is not perfect. Mistakes are made. mistakes have already been made.

1 Reply

@maxdancona,

we know so much about the etiology and the vectors of this virus that Im sure we could prevent it from spreding with the very firt patients.

1we don't eat much bushmeat so the first interspecies vectors are cutoff.
2 We know that only bodily fluids of symptomatic people are the vector, so controlling and isolating contactors will be first defenses
3 we would most likely "body bag" any terminal victims and probably incinerate the corpses (despite customs)

Mr Duncan is a case celebre

1 Reply

@farmerman,

Im more afraid of our Pa bred "Pocono cop killer" who's roaming the SChoodic Mountains of Eastern Pa. rather than an ebola outbreak.

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@Finn dAbuzz,

Finn, I don't know what you have against the CDC. I happen to think having an organization tasked with keeping the public safe from epidemic is a very good idea. They have access to the best experts and the resources to respond. And there is no denying that our public health system has been very successful. There are far fewer people dying from epidemics than at any other time in history.

On one side you have the CDC, which is acting with reasonable caution, responding to cases seriously while trying to keep the public from panicking.

On the other side you have people who are urging panic, spreading fear and casting doubt on the very public health systems that are keeping us safe.

I have no problem saying that I support the CDC.

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@farmerman,

I am more afraid of the coming robot uprising (and it is coming).

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@farmerman,

But that is your individual concern - not the public-at-large as it has a miniscule chance of contact with that PA cop-killer. this about educating the public...not that part of PA .

However, that being said, I feel your priority of level of concern is correct for you as an individual.

1 Reply

Ebola in The USA

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