STRATFOR updates 9/6/04

STRATFOR update 9/6/04

Washington as Target: D.C. Through Al Qaeda's Eyes

The nation's capital remains a key target for an al Qaeda strike. Speculation on what could be hit, and how, typically fails to take into account al Qaeda's own targeting criteria and objectives. The good news is that most of the scenarios that excite public concern are unlikely to happen because they would not serve the group's broader interests. The bad news is, other factors argue in favor of a spectacular strike in the Washington, D.C. area that will likely involve another attack by aircraft, a car bomb, or a "dirty bomb" involving medical-grade radioactive material.
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Credibility and Strategy: Terror Alerts in the United States

Terrorism warnings issued by the federal government are often more complex than the American public presumes. Though some public warnings are, in fact, intended to be such, it is crucial to recognize that the FBI and Department of Homeland Security frequently might have another audience in mind - including al Qaeda itself. Likely motives for terrorism warnings include site alerts, deterrent alerts to help shape the U.S. security environment and keep al Qaeda off balance, and enemy-engineered alerts used as disinformation campaigns.
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Agriculture Subsidies and Strange Bedfellows
09-SEP-04

The World Trade Organization (WTO) issued a ruling Sept. 8 declaring that up to half the European Union's sugar exports are illegal. The ruling puts the EU on similar footing with the United States, which is appealing the WTO's June ruling against its subsidized cotton production. Although traditionally at odds over agricultural policies, the European Union and United States are facing concrete consequences -- from third-party powers -- to their export-subsidy practices. The rulings will provide the impetus for the EU and United States to work toward pushing the WTO's Doha round forward in an attempt to placate the countries bringing suit against them -- and to avoid facing similar legal and economic battles in the future.
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Indonesia: Bomb Outside Australian Embassy
09-SEP-04

A suspected suicide car-bombing near the Australian Embassy and high-rise buildings in Jakarta, Indonesia, left at least 11 dead and 100 injured Sept. 9.
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STRATFOR updates 6/24/04

Saudi Arabia: Foreigners Allowed To Carry Guns

Saudi Interior Minister Prince Nayif said June 24 that foreigners will be allowed to carry personal handguns as protection against militant attacks. Though this concession acknowledges the wave of fear running through the expatriate community, accidents and panic shootings could worsen Saudi-Western relations.
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Turkey: The Slow Pulling Away
Jun 24, 2004

The Turkish government is steadily altering its geopolitical alignments away from the United States, with the goal of increasing its influence in the Arab world and finally gaining admission to the European club. There is no formal rupture in relations with the United States on the horizon -- geography and the country's pro-U.S. military dictate that the two states retain their cooperative relations at some level -- but Turkey's mildly Islamist government is well into an evolution that will make it a much more independent player.
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STRATFOR UPDATE 6/21

Iran: Fomenting Crisis?

Iran seized British patrol boats in the Shatt al-Arab in southern Iraq on June 21. The move is intended to indicate Iran's ability to trigger diplomatic crises and remind the world of Tehran's political and military relevance in the oil-rich Persian Gulf.
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Gaza: Hamas Scrambles for Role in Post-Israeli Government
Jun 21, 2004

Hamas hopes to participate in governing the Gaza Strip after Israel pulls out, Palestinian officials say. In hopes of earning positions in Palestinian government ministries, purported Hamas leader Mahmoud Zahar requested that the group be invited to discussions on education, health and security.
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Afghanistan: Warlords Pulling the Strings?
Jun 21, 2004

Afghan President Hamid Karzai's fragile political position was again highlighted when local militias recently overran the capital of Ghor province, forcing a token deployment on June 21 of 700 Afghan soldiers to the province. With international forces and a small contingent of peacekeepers remaining on the sidelines, Karzai has been hard-pressed to exert Kabul's control over the rest of the country without the support of Afghanistan's warlords -- a situation that will not change in the run-up to September's presidential elections.
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STRATFOR UPDATE 6/15:

Venezuela: Referendum for Chavez

On August 15, Venezuelan voters have the opportunity to oust President Hugo Chavez in a presidential recall referendum. Chavez is unpopular, but so are many of his opponents -- and that means he could win the referendum. Or he could lose the referendum and seek re-election in subsequent general elections -- and possibly win. Regardless of how the referendum plays out, Stratfor sees no significant risk to Venezuelan oil exports over the next several months.

Saudi Arabia: Oil Flow and Worker Security
Jun 15, 2004

The U.S. State Department has urged American expatriate workers in Saudi Arabia to leave the kingdom amid the country's deteriorating security situation, with statements indicating that Washington has serious doubts about Riyadh's ability to keep the oil flowing. The message here -- that Riyadh needs to improve expatriate worker security -- will prompt the Saudi regime to make special security arrangements. Both the U.S. move and the Saudi response, however, are likely to elicit additional al Qaeda attacks.

STRATFOR update 6/3

Tanker Trucks: Potential Weapons on Wheels
Jun 03, 2004

Tanker trucks seem ready-made for use as weapons. Preventing attacks using tanker trucks, or diminishing the damage they might cause, depends more on vigilance and common sense than technology and law enforcement.

Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia
Jun 03, 2004

The United States has clearly entered a new phase of the Iraq campaign in which its relationship with the Iraqi Shia has been de-emphasized while relationships with Sunnis have been elevated. This also has an international effect. It obviously affects Iranian ambitions. It also helps strengthen the weakening hand of the Saudi government by reducing the threat of a Shiite rising in strategic parts of the kingdom that could threaten the flow of oil. The United States is creating a much more dynamic and fluid situation, but it is also enormously more complicated and difficult to manage.

STRATFOR update 5/31
Overdoing Chalabi

May 28, 2004
The United States and Iran each used Ahmed Chalabi for its own purposes. At this point, it is honestly impossible to tell who got the better of whom.


Homeland Security: Chinks in the Armor
May 28, 2004

Despite the announcement by U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft that al Qaeda is posing an imminent threat to the United States in the coming months, federal agencies have only begun to share confidential terrorism data with local law enforcement -- and even that cooperation is very limited.


Al Qaeda's Next Strike
5/24/04

Al Qaeda likely has a number of sleeper cells still embedded in the United States, and logic dictates that Houston, Texas, is high on their target list.

Iraq: Quiet in Karbala Signals Secret U.S. Deal?
May 24, 2004

A sudden cessation of hostilities in Karbala could signal secret U.S. negotiations with Shiite leaders. Assuring that the tenuous peace holds and spreads to other insurgent bases will be a high priority for Washington before the June 30 transfer of sovereignty to a new Iraqi governing body.
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South Korea's Roh Facing Victory and Compromise?
May 13, 2004

South Korea's Constitutional Court is set to announce its ruling on the fate of suspended President Roh Moo Hyun -- with all signs indicating that the court will overturn the impeachment motion filed against him. While this will mark a major victory for Roh, and a vindication of his risky strategy to court the impeachment proceedings, there is a new problem emerging. The Uri Party, created initially as a support base for Roh, has begun asserting its own policy ideas following its major victory in the parliamentary elections, and Roh will find himself forced to compromise once again.

Europe: Noose Tightens on Prisoner Abuse
May 13, 2004

The British and Italian prime ministers are both taking political hits for their policies on Iraq, and now more than ever because of the ongoing prisoner-abuse scandal. While British troops are more in danger of being implicated in the scandal, Silvio Berlusconi's government, rather than Tony Blair's, could be the first to fall.