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Fri 9 Apr, 2004 08:30 am
Gaming Out Iraq
Apr 08, 2004
The United States is involved in its greatest military crisis since the fall of Baghdad a year ago. This is the convergence of two separate processes. The first is the apparent re-emergence of the Sunni guerrillas west of Baghdad; the second is a split in the Shiite community and an internal struggle that has targeted the United States. In the worst-case scenario, these events could have a disastrous outcome for the United States, but there are reasons to think that the worst case is not the most likely at this point.
Shiite Resignation Puts Focus on Sunni Pressure
Apr 08, 2004
Shiite Iraqi Interim Interior Minister Nouri al-Badran said he would resign at the request of the Coalition Provisional Authority so that the Cabinet can be balanced in an effort to accommodate the Shiite and Sunni sectarian divide. This move might not salvage a situation in which some Shia -- like the Sunnis --have turned to insurrection, but it highlights the growing pressure for the United States to appease the Sunnis.
What I understand is that the relationship between the Iraqi Sunni and Shia isn't that good. What will happen when Iraq will get total self-control in June? Will this mean a civil war? Will Iraq become a second Afghanistan, where different ethnic groups this time - Uzbeks, Pashtun, Tadzjiks - are fighting each other? Will the new Iraqi government be like the Afghan government - only minimal control in the country? Should American and other allied troops stay in the country longer in that case? Is there a role here for the Arab League? And what about the Christian part of Iraq, will their rights be preserved?
Just some questions...
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