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Dice Roll Game Probabilities

 
 
Reply Sun 13 Oct, 2013 09:48 am
Hello everyone, I have a bit of a probability question for you as it has been quite awhile since I have been in school, and I can’t remember the equations for figuring out probabilities.
I am developing a dice rolling game where-in players roll 1 to 3 6-sided dice of a particular color vs. another player. On one end, you have an attacker and on the other a defender. There are 5 different types of dice; Red, Orange, Yellow, Green, and Blue. When rolling, an attacking player will have so many ‘hits’ negated by the opposing player’s ‘blocks’. Each dice has a set amount of ‘hit’ sides and ‘block’ sides as listed below:
Red Dice= 5 Hit Sides, 1 Block Side (or think of it like 2-6 are hits, 1 is a block)
Orange Dice= 4 Hit Sides, 2 Block Sides (or think of it like 3-6 are hits, 1-2 is a block)
Yellow= 3 Hit Sides, 3 Block Sides (or think of it like 4-6 are hits, 1-3 is a block)
Green= 2 Hit Sides, 4 Block Sides (or think of it like 5-6 are hits, 1-4 is a block)
Blue= 1 Hit Side, 5 Block Sides (or think of it like 6 is a hit, 1-5 is a block)
As should be apparent, certain dice are better on offense and certain dice are better on defense. As an example, An attacking player rolls 3 Red dice, a defender counters with 3 Blue dice. The attacker rolls 3 hits, the defender rolls 2 blocks. The 2 blocks rolled by the defender negate 2 of the attackers hits; so when the final it tallied, the defender takes 1 hit.
A second example, The attacker then throws 2 Orange dice, and rolls 1 hit. The defender rolls 3 green and gets 2 blocks, negating the attackers hit. The defender gets 0 hits on him/her.
The problem I am having is figuring out the probability of certain rolls vs other rolls. Is there a formula that I could use to determine the probability of getting 1 hit, 2 hits, and 3 hits respectively for each type of dice vs the other dice?
I hope I am being descriptive enough. Below is a link to an Excel spreadsheet that is showing what I am trying to accomplish. I think this may clear it up better.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/86705767/Probablilities.xlsx
If anyone can help, it would be very, very much appreciated! Thank you for your time and have a great day!
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markr
 
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Reply Sun 13 Oct, 2013 08:36 pm
@BillMisc,
If the probability of getting a hit (block) is p, then:
- with 1 die, the probability of getting 0 hits (blocks) is 1-p
- with 1 die, the probability of getting 1 hit (block) is p
- with 2 dice, the probability of getting 0 hits (blocks) is (1-p)^2
- with 2 dice, the probability of getting 1 hit (block) is 2p(1-p)
- with 2 dice, the probability of getting 2 hits (blocks) is p^2
- with 3 dice, the probability of getting 0 hits (blocks) is (1-p)^3
- with 3 dice, the probability of getting 1 hit (block) is 3p(1-p)^2
- with 3 dice, the probability of getting 2 hits (blocks) is 3p^2(1-p)
- with 3 dice, the probability of getting 3 hits (blocks) is p^3

For instance, with 2 red dice:
- the probability of getting 0 hits is 1/36
- the probability of getting 1 hit is 10/36
- the probability of getting 2 hits is 25/36

And with 3 yellow dice:
- the probability of getting 0 blocks is 1/8
- the probability of getting 1 block is 3/8
- the probability of getting 2 blocks is 3/8
- the probability of getting 3 blocks is 1/8

To determine the probabilities of the net number of hits with 2 red vs. 3 yellow, compute the products of each of the red and yellow outcomes:

...........................2 red
3 yellow....0 hits.......1 hit.........2 hits
0 blocks...1/36*1/8..10/36*1/8..25/36*1/8
1 block....1/36*3/8..10/36*3/8..25/36*3/8
2 blocks...1/36*3/8..10/36*3/8..25/36*3/8
3 blocks...1/36*1/8..10/36*1/8..25/36*1/8

2 red nets 2 hits against 3 yellow with probability 25/36*1/8
2 red nets 1 hit against 3 yellow with probability 25/36*3/8 + 10/36*1/8
2 red nets 0 hits against 3 yellow with probability 25/36*3/8 + 10/36*3/8 + 1/36*1/8
2 red nets -1 hits against 3 yellow with probability 25/36*1/8 + 10/36*3/8 + 1/36*3/8
2 red nets -2 hits against 3 yellow with probability 10/36*1/8 + 1/36*3/8
2 red nets -3 hits against 3 yellow with probability 1/36*1/8

Note that the above are sums of diagonals starting in the upper right corner.
Based on your post, I assume that 0, -1, -2, and -3 net hits are all equivalent to 0 hits.

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