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Is There A Good Reason to NOT Obliterate Pyongyang With Nukes Right Now?

 
 
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Apr, 2013 04:51 am
@FBM,
It does seem as if the ruling dynasty's number one priority is to continue ruling. Dictatorships, like cults, need an enemy in order to justify their actions, things may be harsh now, but that's nothing compared to what the foreign devils will do.

The level of mind control is exceptional, BBC journalists have noted when visiting other dictatorships, that the people will parrot party propaganda but it's clear they don't really believe it. In North Korea they actually believe it.
FBM
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Apr, 2013 05:10 am
@izzythepush,
It seems that way, for the most part. Local media report that defectors say that the level of disbelief up north is rising, but those media just report what the gummit releases, so I'm not willing to claim any reliable insight into what the reality is up there.
0 Replies
 
FBM
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Apr, 2013 06:14 pm
Quote:
North Korea Likely To Launch 'A Relatively Small Attack That Won't Leave Many People Dead'
By Geoffrey Ingersoll | Business Insider


The most probable outcome of all these tensions is a low-level "tactical" strike from North Korea.
But don't worry, it'll be " a relatively small attack that won’t leave many people dead," Sue Mi Terry, a Columbia University professor who served as a senior analyst on North Korea at the CIA from 2001 to 2008, told Wired's Spencer Ackermann.
Analysts in the military, political, and intelligence fields have all pretty much said the same thing: Kim Jong-Un has painted himself into a corner, and the only way out is a gunfight.
Luckily they also say it won't be World War III.
“Chances are not high that they will lead to a full-scale war,” Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin of South Korea said to Choe Sang-Hun of The New York Times. “But given the nature of the North Korean regime, it’s possible that they will launch a localized provocation.”
Kim only got in this position because of all his talk, but as we've covered before, the posturing and "bellicose bluster" is also a good means for new leaders to consolidate power.
From a Fox News piece on Kim's internal politics:
Kim "needs to show he has the guts. The best way to do that is to use the military might that he commands," said Lee Yoon-gyu, a North Korea expert at Korea National Defense University in Seoul. "This paves the way for greater praise for him if North Korea makes a provocation later and claims victory."
Kim will eventually be compelled to do "something provocative to prove the threats weren't empty," Lee said.
In the past, these attacks included sinking small ships, short-lived artillery barrages, even taking Americans captive. One way or another though, the attacks were not the the sustained or devastating enough to initiate open war.
“It will be something sneaky and creative and hard to definitively trace back to North Korea to avoid international condemnation and immediate retaliation from Washington or Seoul,” Terry told Ackermann.


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/north-korea-likely-launch-relatively-223243082.html
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Apr, 2013 06:25 pm
@FBM,
I've been worrying/attentive to how you are, fbm.
engineer
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Apr, 2013 06:48 pm
@FBM,
FBM wrote:

Quote:
North Korea Likely To Launch 'A Relatively Small Attack That Won't Leave Many People Dead'


This was my thought as well. I was in an international meeting today and our Asian members were discussing how plane travel is bogged down all over Asia because no one is willing to fly through Seoul with all the tensions so all the other hubs are overbooked. It would not surprise me if a jet liner were shot down "violating N. Korean airspace" or something like that. No one is going to war over that but it would still be pretty bad.
FBM
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Apr, 2013 03:24 am
@ossobuco,
Thanks, man. SNAFU over here.
0 Replies
 
FBM
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Apr, 2013 03:28 am
@engineer,
Wow. I had no idea about that. Maybe that's part of NK's plan, ie, to hit SK economically by scaring people away from the peninsula. Every time NK has to expend their fuel reserves in response to joint SK-USFK military exercises, it's a big hit to their almost nonexistent economy.
0 Replies
 
 

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