Astroid travel near earth

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Quote:

NASA says
By Miriam Kramer | SPACE.com – 4 hrs ago.. .

Video: 150-foot asteroid will buzz Earth, no need to duck1:49

Asteroid 2012 DA14 is about the …

An asteroid half the size of a football field will make a close approach to Earth, but poses no threat of smacking into the planet, NASA officials said today (Feb. 7).

The asteroid 2012 DA14 will approach within 17,200 miles (27,680 kilometers) of Earth when it zips by during its close encounter next Friday, Feb. 15. That is the closest shave ever for an asteroid the size of 2012 DA14, which is about 150 feet (45 meters) wide, that astronomers have known about in advance, NASA scientists said.

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@cicerone imposter,

Someone started a thread on the "World Killer" that is due to hit the earth in 2036. It is a meteor that will aslo pass us on its first go round and then come back and give us a smack down.

Im elated that it may give this planet something else to go after besides each other.

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@farmerman,

2036? LOL Mr. Green

If I'm still kicking dirt on this planet in 2036, I would have accomplished more than that killer astroid! Drunk

...and I'll celebrate with a couple of vodka martinis.

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@farmerman,

2036 is not that far away.

Is it generally accepted within the scientific community that this thing will actually collide with the earth in 2036?

As a watcher of science focused TV, I know there are all sorts of theoretical ways to destroy a killer asteroid before it hits the earth, but it will take time, lots of money and engineers (as opposed to theorists) to make any of them a reality.

Not the sort of thing that can be done 11 months before impact, no matter what Hollywood tells us.

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I stand a pretty good chance of being around in2036 and even if I don't make it into my 90's I have kids (and someday, I hope, grandkids) for whom I will be concerned.

Hell, if Kurzweil is right anyone who makes it to 2030 will certainly make it to 2036. What a bitch, we all get to be immortal and 6 years later we're obliterated by a hunk of spacefaring iron.

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@Finn dAbuzz,

The hell of it is that meteor specialists have computed the size of the Tunguska bolide and , due to the way that a shock wave is propogated (sorta like seismic energy in air), the bolide was less than 30 ft in diameter. This changes lotsa things. If it comes in and hits, itll be bad, if it explodes in midair, itll be really bad.
The meteor , whose name escapes me now, i ts about 25 acres in size

"Nature Bats Last"

Oh yeh, its called "Apophis"

2 Replies

@farmerman,

Hers a little ditty from Wiki

Quote:

99942 Apophis

Discovery[1]

Discovered by

Roy A. Tucker
David J. Tholen
Fabrizio Bernardi

Discovery site

Kitt Peak[1]

Discovery date

June 19, 2004

Designations

Named after

Apep

Alternative names

2004 MN4

Minor planet category

Aten PHA[1]

Orbital characteristics[1]

Epoch January 4, 2010 (JD 2455200.5)
(Uncertainty=0)[1]

Aphelion

1.0987 AU

Perihelion

0.74604 AU

Semi-major axis

0.92241 AU

Eccentricity

0.19121

Orbital period

323.58 d (0.89 a)

Average orbital speed

30.728 km/s

Mean anomaly

339.94°

Inclination

3.3315°

Longitude of ascending node

204.43°

Argument of perihelion

126.42°

Physical characteristics

Dimensions

325±15 m[2]

Mass

2.7×1010 kg (assumed)[3]

Mean density

~3.2 g/cm3[4]

Escape velocity

~0.52 km/h[5]

Rotation period

30.4 h[1][6]

Albedo

0.23[2]

Temperature

270 K

Spectral type

Sq [6]

Absolute magnitude (H)

19.7 [1][6]

99942 Apophis (pron.: /əˈpɒfɪs/, previously known by its provisional designation 2004 MN4) is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a probability of up to 2.7% that it would strike the Earth in 2029. Additional observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth or the Moon in 2029. However, a possibility remained that during the 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass through a gravitational keyhole, a small region no more than about 800 m (half a mile) wide,[7] that would set up a future impact on April 13, 2036. This possibility kept the asteroid at Level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale until August 2006, when the probability that Apophis would pass through the keyhole was determined to be very small. Apophis broke the record for the highest level on the Torino Scale, being, for only a short time, a level 4, before it was lowered.[8]

The diameter of Apophis is approximately 325 metres (1,066 ft).[2] As of the December 29, 2012 observation arc, the probability of an April 13, 2036 impact is considered to be 1 in 10,989,000.[3] Preliminary observations by Goldstone radar in January 2013 have effectively ruled out the possibility of an Earth impact by Apophis in 2036.[9] Of objects not recently observed, there are about ten asteroids with a more notable Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale than Apophis.[10] On average, an asteroid the size of Apophis (325 meters) can be expected to impact Earth about every 80,000 years or so.[11]

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@farmerman,

So the answer is no, the scientific community has not formed a consensus that this thing will hit us in 2036, quite the opposite apparently.

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@Finn dAbuzz,

the orbital eccentricities and other variables dont allow those confident sounding "Statistics of smackdown".

nyway ,y job was NOT to scare CI into getting some new ocean "Bus tickets" . Besides, as they say, there are 10 other objects with higher probabilities f hitting us, Wink

1 Reply

@farmerman,

Unfortunately, as far as humans are concerned there is no "science" without scientists, and scientists are not incapable of hyperbole, prejudice or deceit.

Equally unfortunate is how easily someone can assume the mantle of "scientist."

There is an excellent article in the most recent edition of Discover (an admirable effort to popularize science) which focuses on the evolution of current mankind.

It refers to Robert Fogel's attempt to disprove the assertion of Alfred Conrad and John Meyer that slavery, while immoral, was economically successful.

Fogel spent a decade trying to prove them wrong (in part because his wife was black), but in the end he had to admit that they were right.

Yet his work helped illuminate how evolutionary equilibrium can be punctuated by significant cultural developments as well as physical events.

The point being that if Fogel was honorable enough to admit when the research led him to a conclusion that ran counter to his initial bias, we can be pretty damned sure that he is the exception and not the rule.

All the more reason to take what "the majority of scientists believe" with a grain of salt.

I'm hardly anything like an expert on the history of science, but based on what I've read, herd mentality among scientists is no less prevelant than it is in the general public.

Perhaps foolishly, but I tend to put more faith in the iconoclasts as they seem to most often be right.

1 Reply

@Finn dAbuzz,

Was all that an "AHA" moment for you?
I assume that you will now make a transition to climate change and anthropogenic global warming, no?

'EVOLUTIONRY EQUILIBRIUM" sounds to me like a term that had been invented by some social "scientists" who wished to be part of the Gould/Eldredge paradigms. I ll have to go and look up who Robert Fogel is cause Im not familiar with his ideas.

The problem with all sciences is that it breeds a terribe isolation of craft, and most scientists can work their entire lives on an area that later is debunked.
In my area, Ive seen entire careers dumped into the bin by scientists who had spent their careers fighting the gradual rise of plate tectonics only to be steamrollered by tons of data and evidence that was an outgrowth of some damned military application or random drilling into new resource plays. Something that even nursery school kids accept today was a hard fought "pissing" contest as late as the late 1970's.
What magazines like "Discover' fail in, is to let their readerships be involved in how ultimate changes in entire "bases of truth" are full of selfishness, childishness, and brutal ego fights.
If one isnt truly involved in some pissing contest of paradigm, one isnt really involved in science.

1 Reply

@farmerman,

Not at all.

I used to watch NOVA religiously and back then, the best shows were the one's that examined what went on behind the scenes of historic scientific achievements. Watson & Crick for example. It was fascinating, and ultimately elementary that although these folks were, of course, brilliant, they were also human beings with all the foibles of that species.

What was surprising about the Discover article was not that Fogel began his research with a very clear bias, but that he had the integrity to resist it.

Fogel is an economist but a very "scientific" one, so your right on.

I guess being a scientist can suck, for the reason you've cited, but being
anything can suck and particularly if you can't get off a dead-end path because you are too stubborn.

No need to segue to Climate Change, the biases involved are clear to anyone who cares to look.

It would remain pathetic but it wouldn't be so big a deal that "scientists" allow
politics and personal gain to corrupt their findings if as a people we didn't put so much misplaced faith in their objectivity.

"Most scientists agree..." has become the Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval
of The Truth, despite the fact that at one time or another "most scientists" agreed that every "scientific" conjecture accepted as gospel, but proven wrong, was in fact The Truth."

Don't get me wrong, I'm certainly not anti-Science, and I'm not even anti-Scientist, but as much as I very highly value their contributions to society and civilization, I'm not prepared to consider them a breed apart----maybe the relative handful of incredible geniuses, but never the hundreds of thousands of folk who rightfully get to claim the moniker, but who are hardly exceptional.

But it can be tough being a scientist. Now it's all favors and laurels, but it must have been a bitch when the Church was after them, and it will be again when some Captain Tripps virus escapes or nanobots turn a continent into grey goo.

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Astroid travel near earth

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