@angelrocksvid,
First calculate the possibility of the player getting a point. There are forty good cards for the players (52 - 4 aces - 4 jacks - 4 deuces) so the probability of the player winning on any deal is:
P = (40x39x38) / (52x51x50)
The probility of the house winning is 1-P. You can find out the average number of points the house will get by multiplying the probability the house will get a point by the number of trials (17).
Once you know P, the chance that a player will get exactly N points is
(P)^N * (1-P)^(17-N) * 17! / N! / (1-N)!
The player loses if the number of points is 8 or lower so just compute the first eight terms and add them together. If you don't get Mark's numbers, you did it wrong.