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Math of probability revisited

 
 
Reply Sat 4 Aug, 2012 10:27 am
Need an expert: Is is true that given forever, anything that can happen, will happen

Though conventional wisdom says yes, intuition says no. Given forever, by sheer chance we’d expect an occasional repetitions of an object or a collection of objects. Thus why not exact repetitions of entire galaxies or even Universes

Then carried to its logical extreme, in an infinite Universe for instance at any one moment we’d have an infinite number of every possible galaxy or Universe

My own intuition, for what it’s worth which might not be much within the mathematical community at least, is that owing to the principle of “different kinds of infinities” we don’t get exact repetitions, or even close ones

The problem is easily resolved of course by the assertion that coming into existence out of nothingness the Universe happens only once, but doesn’t this approach entail all sorts of paradox and contradiction
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Torii
 
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Reply Sat 4 Aug, 2012 01:02 pm
@dalehileman,
It seems to be a variation of the joke: if you had an infinite amount of monkeys hacking away on an infinite amount of computer keyboards you get Shakespeare's Hamlet, word for word.
So from probability wise, there is no implication that order is likely or inevitable. Mathematically, theoretically speaking, certainly a yes, observable in reality, No. "True" randomness is an assumption in the proof.
dalehileman
 
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Reply Sat 4 Aug, 2012 02:35 pm
@Torii,
Quote:
....Shakespeare's Hamlet, word for word.......So from probability wise, there is no implication that order is likely
Order doesn’t figure into my query, just randomness and probability

Quote:
"True" randomness is an assumption in the proof.
Quite true Tor but the less the randomness the greater probability of repetition
engineer
 
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Reply Sat 4 Aug, 2012 02:48 pm
@dalehileman,
What is missing on these types of questions is time. How long does a monkey take to type the required number of characters? Now take all the monkeys and all the remaining time in the universe and you will see that there is no chance of getting the works of Shakespeare.
Torii
 
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Reply Sat 4 Aug, 2012 03:18 pm
@dalehileman,
Well, is chaos misunderstood order?

You wrote "we’d expect an occasional repetitions of an object or a collection of objects. Thus why not exact repetitions of entire galaxies or even Universes"

And to the scientific community real order is observable only on very specific scales. I'm not sure if "order" vanishes at the level of galaxies, but replicating entire galaxies, exactly, has lower probability than monkeys typing up Hamlet. As a function of time, I'm sure as n goes to infinity the probability goes close to "1" for the replication-of-galaxy-event, but good luck figuring out an equation to represent that. I know that someone came up with an equation for the monkey-hamlet scenario, and as the number of monkeys, n, goes to infinity, I think the probability goes close to one.

Then again, in reality, monkeys seriously lack concentration, so a monkey is more likely to defecate or urinate on the keyboard than try typing strings of letters on the keyboard.
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dalehileman
 
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Reply Sat 4 Aug, 2012 04:31 pm
@engineer,
Quote:
Now take all the monkeys and all the remaining time in the universe and you will see that there is no chance of getting the works of Shakespeare.
But what if all the remaining time is infinite
engineer
 
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Reply Sat 4 Aug, 2012 05:47 pm
@dalehileman,
People have no concept of infinite. There will be no monkeys and no people before infinite happens so once again, no works of Shakespeare.
Fil Albuquerque
 
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Reply Sat 4 Aug, 2012 07:28 pm
@engineer,
...well "God" knows what happens to residual energy long after the last galaxy disintegrates...I find it totally inelegant that the Universe just ends without circular, completeness...I would gladly bet my neck on my instinct on this one...
dalehileman
 
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Reply Sun 5 Aug, 2012 09:09 am
@engineer,
Quote:
People have no concept of infinite.
Much like “forever.” However I wouldn’t put it exactly so. Though it’s impossible to “picture in the mind’s eye," we can certainly conceive of it

Quote:
There will be no monkeys and no people before infinite happens so once again, no works of Shakespeare.
Eng you might have to elaborate on that observation for the benefit of the Average Clod among us (me). How can the infinite have a “before"
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dalehileman
 
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Reply Sun 5 Aug, 2012 09:13 am
@Fil Albuquerque,
Quote:
...I find it totally inelegant that the Universe just ends without circular, completeness...
By coincidence Fil I feel much the same way. The term “circular” bothers me however as I envision sequential Big Bang, Expansion, Big Crunch’es as being a linear phenom without beginning nor end

But I’d agree that the idea of huge numbers of cold objects and particles mutually accelerating apart forever certainly qualifies as inelegant
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