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# Help with Probability Calculation

Thu 15 Dec, 2011 01:24 pm
I have a simple stats/probability question.

I need a formula to calculate probability of death.
Lets say 20% of people with cancer will die this year. and 2% of people without cancer will die this year.
(d1=0.20, n1 =0.02)

Also 5% of smokers will die this year, and only 1.5% of non-smokers will die this year.
(d2=0.05, n2 = 0.015)

I need a formula, that takes these values, and calculates the probability that a person will die if he has cancer (b1 = 1) and he is a smoker (b2 = 1). The formula should take b1 and b2 as arguments, where both can be 0 or 1.

it is also useful if number of b1,b2 (and also d*, n*) can be 1 to N

Thank you in advance
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fobvius

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Fri 16 Dec, 2011 03:52 am
@mathStudent,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability
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