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Could Israel joining the SCO China alliance and bring peace to Palestine?

 
 
Reply Sat 24 Sep, 2011 12:54 pm
My question is this:

Palestine allies with Muslim/Arab middle eastern states.
Arab/Muslim middle eastern states ally with Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) basically Russia and China.

Israel allies with USA and NATO.

Question #1: Is the conflict about --choice 1-- [Islam, land, Sharia law, Palestine, Mohammed] or is it about --choice 2 -- control over the [Red Sea, Persian Gulf, Iran pipeline to Pakistan/India, Israels hegemony, Arab state hegemonies etc]

If it were about #1 Israel will never be able to reason because they are primarily Jews. Demanding Israel's Jews to convert to Islam is not ethical.

#2 seems more reasonable to assume (with #1 as a front or cover). So if #2 is the problem, then really this is not a Palestine-Israel issue at all. This has much broader implications.

The Palestinian refugee situation could be used by other Arab-states as a way to spread anti-Israel hatred. By keeping the conflict alive, and forcing the Palestinian people stay in the meat grinder by not allowing them to merge into other Arab states. Then they can file human rights abuse charges through the United Nations against the State of Israel. This huge Vote of the UN alliance (SCO for example) could be used unjustly to assail Israel and exploit the Palestinian issue to deliberately prevent peace, and use the world's hatred of Israel as a weapon to attack the USA with. In this case the alliance of Israel and USA is bad for Israel because Israel serves the US against the SCO and is hated for it, and bad for the US because of its support for Israel, while Israel has been made to seem worse than it is because of the unbalanced UN alliances voting in favor of the SCO states.

So what about this?

If the conflict is caused by the USA & NATO alliance with Israel (because of the geopolitical strategies of that western alliance) and the SCO and pro-Islamic world powers are allying against US hegemony in the middle east (and they are backed by China and Russia), then I ask.... What about Israel and the Jewish people's interests, which must be respected?

Lets think of Israel in a vacuum of idealism for a moment, and just pretend. Ideally, to create peace in the middle east, Israels militaristic, economic, geopolitical aspirations must be "in line" with the same aspirations of the Arab states and SCO members.

What would it take to merge those interests? Could Israel align itself with Russia and China instead of the USA? If the threat #1 above was not the real problem (and the, 'all Jews must be killed for Islam' nonsense was curbed) and Jews (who have a lengthy history as middle eastern people regardless of whether Muslims believe the Jews are really the true Israelites of the Old Testament or not, and that Muslims are, etc) were respected as a middle eastern people and allowed to remain and control the State of Israel as a Jewish state as it is... could an alliance be built (and why not)? Israel aligning itself with the SCO (laughable it seems, I know). But if this could happen. Israel would be aligned with those middle eastern powers and could have peace...ideally (assuming #1 Jew/Muslim prejudices are stopped). Like in the Godfather "All our ships must sail in the same direction." (Otherwise war and death is inevitable - note all the WWIII scenarios that have been popping up lately).

So, what is the downside? The US loses some geopolitical ground in the middle east. So what? This would be a solution for Israel at least, would it not? Israel gets out alive, the middle eastern states don't have Mossad spies breathing down their neck, it becomes harder for the USA to operate in the region, but they can operate from their bases in Iraq.

Forget about what happens for the US, I would just like to know why uniting with Russia and China (SCO) is not in the cards for Israel, especially with the possible impending collapse of the US economy and the rise of a strong militaristic China? Many Jews are from Russia, many Jews were in power in Russia before the creation of Israel. Many Jews have socialist philosophies in Israel who came from Russia and Old Europe. Could this realignment work for Israel, and why not.
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Finn dAbuzz
 
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Reply Sat 24 Sep, 2011 03:28 pm
@iwonderwhatif,
You have made a rather large assumption that the conflict between Middle Eastern Muslims and Israel is not existential.

The fact that since 1973 Israel has maintained essentially peaceful relations with all of its Muslim neighbor states, except Lebanon, would seem to suggest that political accommodation is possible, however the fact that Israel has, during this same time period, been engaged with no less that 7 extended armed conflicts with either Lebanon or the Palestinians strongly argues that it is not.

Israel does not have fundamental points of conflict with Lebanon and the Lebanese, and while there have never been diplomatic relations between the two countries, Lebanon was the first Arab League nation to approach Israel for a peace treaty in 1949 and didn't participate in either the 1967 or 1973 Arab -Israeli wars. Yet 4 of the 7 wars Israel has fought in since 1973 were with Lebanon.

These 4 wars may have involved fighting on Lebanese territory, but the Israeli's actual opponents were Syria and/or Iran who funded and directed Hezbollah

Setting aside whether or not the theocracy in Iran poses an existential threat to Israel on ideological grounds, clearly Iran has mid and long term goals for controlling the entire Middle East region. Israel has been and always will remain a threat to those goals. It is hard to imagine a scenario in which Iranian hegemony is established in the region and Israel remains a democratic, Jewish state. As long as Iran has designs on the region, political accommodation with Israel will not be possible. In addition, short of using military force, neither the Chinese nor the Russians will be able to persuade Iran to give up its imperial goal and reach an accommodation with Israel. The fact that Iran has been actively supporting Hamas in the second front of Israeli's wars since 1973 - Palestine, further demonstrates the extent to which Iran considers Israel a mortal enemy.

Syria has territorial disputes with Israel (Golan Heights in particular) and there is a long list of Syrian grievances towards Israel (including the recent destruction, by Israel, its developing nuclear weapons program) that would make it very difficult to effect an accommodation between the two nations. Add to this the fact that Syria has become a client state of Iran based, in part, on their shared animosity for Israel and it is clear that both countries represent implacable foes for Israel that the SCO would find extremely difficult to defang in any promises it made to the Israelis.

This addresses only Lebanon, arguably the easier of the two flashpoints to quell. Adding Palestine to the mix increases volatility by tenfold. While the expressed desire of Iran's leaders to wipe Israel off the map might be dismissed as posturing, the same cannot so easily be accomplished with the Palestinians and, in particular, Hamas.

Whether illegitimate or even deserved, the Palestinian grievances against Israel far exceed in intensity and consequence any that Syria or Iran may lay claim to. There is a legitimate reason to question whether or not Hamas will ever be prepared to offer Israel peaceful co-existence.

On the plus side for your proposal is the fact that the SCO would have a much easier time coercing the Palestinians than the Iranians or Syrians, but if Iran doesn't want an accommodation with Israel there is no reason to believe they wouldn't stand in Palestine's corner as respects the SCO.

As difficult as it would be to arrange an accommodation between Israel and its current regional foes, we haven't even asked the question, why would the SCO want to bother to try? From a resource standpoint they need the Arab nations and Iran a lot more than they need Israel, so why would they jeopardize relations with them to improve their relations with Israel?

It doesn't make sense, and kicking to the street the long time alliance between the US and Israel seems more of a symbolic than strategic goal.

One might argue that for China or the SCO to establish a broader hegemony in the region they need the US out of the picture, but if you are assuming that a collapse of the US economy would pave the way for this accommodation between SOC and Israel, the purpose of the accommodation can't be to rid the region of US influence, the economic collapse will have already accomplished it.

Admittedly it might offer the US some temporary geo-political relief to free itself of the diplomatic burden of close ties with Israel, but how does that compare with losing the entire region to Chinese and Russian control?

I see no chance of this coming to be and that is less because of religious and or historical hatreds, but because it doesn't suit the goals of most of the key players.
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