9
   

Is the Euro well and truly buggered?

 
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 26 Oct, 2011 03:53 pm
@High Seas,
It seems to me that they're in a rock and a hard-place position, and the best option is extending the terms of those write-downs and losses - with the hope that future economic "growth" will help alleviate the pain.

I doubt there are any short-term solutions to their problems.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Wed 26 Oct, 2011 04:15 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Quote:
It seems to me that they're in a rock and a hard-place position, and the best option is extending the terms of those write-downs and losses - with the hope that future economic "growth" will help alleviate the pain
While it is nice to see governments admit that our economic system is dependent upon growth, passing plans for saving the economic system which depend upon growth is not prudent planning. As the world gets even more overpopulated with people and as the Earth continues to die as a result governments need to be plotting a course towards sustainability. What we see instead is more "delay and prey".
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 26 Oct, 2011 04:20 pm
@hawkeye10,
Sometimes, as in the current world recession, I believe governments need to spend more - not less. How it's spent is the issue.

Without government assistance, the world's economy will only shrink more.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Wed 26 Oct, 2011 04:33 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Quote:
Without government assistance, the world's economy will only shrink more.
It needs to shrink, we produce and consume far more crap than the Earth can tolerate since we insist upon populating it with 7 billion humans. We NEED to cut consumption as we work to get the population down before nature takes care of the problem through starvation and disease. "The economy needs it" is no longer a good reason to do anything, as the economic system no longer supports our best interests....it has become malignant.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 26 Oct, 2011 04:50 pm
@hawkeye10,
That the developed economies produce and consume "more crap," doesn't mean that trend will change any time soon. With the rich comes the spoils; everybody wants a piece of the pie, and that motivation will continue as long as man inhabits this planet.
0 Replies
 
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Mon 31 Oct, 2011 05:09 pm
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:

Thanks for that clarification. Appreciate it.

Today in New York MF Global (a primary securities dealer, started as a sugar brokerage in London more than 2 centuries ago) filed for bankruptcy.

It wasn't European sovereign bonds gone bad, as is being widely reported - it was collateral swaps (repos to maturity) where the counterparties pulled out (aka asked for cash settlements) as they were entitled to do following lowering of MF's rating to junk. More bankruptcies here and in Europe expected, sadly.
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Mon 31 Oct, 2011 05:55 pm
@High Seas,
P.S. on the positive side, the German government discovered its national debt is lower than it thought - due to accounting error in bank nationalized in 2008:
Quote:
......... €55.5 billion. This small rounding error was discovered at FMS Wertmanagement, a government-owned “bad bank” set up in July 2010. Its assets, which include multiple toxic derivatives, were spun out of Hypo Real Estate (HRE), a lender that was rescued in October 2008 and fully nationalised in June 2009. Apparently, the balance sheet had been reckoned to total €357.8 billion instead of €301.8 billion. Assets held as collateral to offset derivatives positions had been added rather than subtracted. ...

The bank's auditors: PriceWaterhouseCooper. Does anybody know if anyone audits the US national accounts? Any chance we, too, find extra money?!
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Mon 31 Oct, 2011 06:18 pm
@High Seas,
Analysis of collateral swaps similar to those that bankrupted MF Global earlier today: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1916649
Anybody else thinks this is a scenario for the scariest of all Halloween movies Smile
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote:
A collateral swap is essentially a form of secured lending whereby one counterparty transfers relatively liquid assets to another in exchange for a pledge of less liquid collateral. In a typical collateral swap, a bank holding a portfolio of ABS or other securitizations will transfer these assets to a pension fund or insurance company which, in exchange for a periodic fee, will deliver a portfolio of more liquid collateral such as high-grade government or corporate bonds.

The pension fund or insurer thereby receives a higher yield on its (ostensibly) safe investments, while the bank obtains access to a portfolio of liquid assets which it can then re-pledge to obtain funding from central banks and other sources which, in the wake of the GFC, have been less willing to accept ABS and other securitizations as eligible collateral. The development of collateral swaps is thus, in effect, an innovative response to both the post-crisis funding constraints on banks and the need to satisfy new liquidity requirements soon to be imposed under Basel III.

.........................

Collateral swaps contribute to the complexity of modern financial markets in at least three ways. First, the collateral swap market is extremely opaque. Nobody knows with any certainty, for example, how big this market is, who the major players are, or the size of the aggregate exposures. As a result, it is exceedingly difficult to ascertain the nature and extent of the attendant risks. Second, given the identity of the counterparties, collateral swaps seem destined to strengthen the interconnections between (1) banking markets and (2) insurance and pension markets. Finally, as described above, collateral swaps are a reflexive response to changes in the post-crisis market and regulatory environment.
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Reply Mon 31 Oct, 2011 06:45 pm
@High Seas,
Quote:
Anybody else thinks this is a scenario for the scariest of all Halloween movies


The financial system of today for some reason reminds me of how an anorexic will shove the food around her plate and play with it while trying to convince her table mates that she is eating......
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Reply Mon 31 Oct, 2011 11:56 pm
@hawkeye10,
Quote:
But is it a good deal? This was, after all, the third “comprehensive solution” devised by the euro zone so far this year. With each “unprecedented” effort, the problem has only worsened (see chart 1). Sadly, this latest deal promises to be no more enduring. At best, it will buy time before the next round of panic. At worst, it may push the euro zone into catastrophe. “This is certainly no summit to end all summits,” said Sony Kapoor, managing director of Re-Define, an economic think-tank in Brussels. “Once again, good economics has fallen victim to bad politics


http://www.economist.com/node/21534851

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0 Replies
 
Old Goat
 
  2  
Reply Tue 1 Nov, 2011 05:28 am
The latest brown stuff to hit the fan appears to be a general rejection by the Greek people with the deal that was recently thrashed out to save their collective bottoms.
Apparently, even though it was agreed that half of the Greek debt should be written off, the reaction from the Greek masses seems to be one of outrage at the interference from Germany, with some newspapers portraying Merkel dressed in a Nazi uniform.
I've just been listening to France 24 news who say that the Greek prime minister is now putting the whole thing to a public referendum.
If the Greeks then say no to the deal, I can see that merkel will have one hell of a job trying to convince her parliament that further efforts should be made to accomodate them. I can envisage the Germans saying "well, sod the lot of you then!" and letting them get on with it.

Interesting.....

"There's a hole in my bucket, dear Liza dear Liza,
There's a hole in my bucket, dear Liza, a hole......"
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Nov, 2011 05:44 am
The Greeks are being a bunch of dicks. People were commenting not long after the fall of the Colonels that the government was taking on far too generous a social welfare program, and this observation has been made for the last 30+ years, without regard to this crisis. Not only do those selfish shits in Greece not want to lose a penny of their ridiculously bloated social welfare plans, they do everything they can to avoid paying their taxes. The best thing in the world that could happen to them is if Europe cut them loose. Forgiving any of their debt is a mistake. The screws should be put to them. If that hurts Germany, France and the other relatively sound economies, so what? They've downloaded the costs of the euro zone on all the newly joined nations--and the euro zone benefits Germany and France, although they've tried to escape the cost of the whole project.

I've reached the ponit where i've got no sympathy for any of them, and the Greeks least of all.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Nov, 2011 07:19 am
@Setanta,
Well soon after they kicked out the Colonels, Greece elected Papandreo pere, a UC Berkeley graduate who quickly instituted give away social welfare programs to his favored voters, thereby undermining what was left of any creative spirit among the ever neurotic Greeks, and putting them on the debt-ridden road they have pursued to its recent collapse.

It is hard to figure the political caloculation involved here by the current Greek government. It seems likely they are convinced (rightly or wrongly) that they can persuade the Greek voters to accept the offered package as at least better for themselves than default and a likely exit from the Euro Zone. It is certainly understandable that the government would fear a public backlash from the deal if there is no public "ownership" of the terms or the alrernatives. However, it also seems very likely that this all came as a surprise to the Germans & French. It appears they are worried more about the possible spread of the financial contaigon to Italy & Spain than about the Greeks, and that this action by the Greek government may upset the whole deal.

All this adds yet another strange twist to this affair. The EU recovery plan uses techniques to leverage the limited bailout funds they have made available to save their banks and limit the spread of the contaigon. However, it is based on an odd "voluntary" haircut for private bondholders, designed to avoid technical default and thereby enable them to allow their main national banks to cling to the fiction that their Greek bondholdinbgs retain face value, and "guarantees" to new lenders that may not work. The European bank capitalization program, done without any supporting action on the part of the European Central Bank (as was done here with the Fed.) perversely creates new incentives for ther European banks to curtail ordinary lending, just as Europe appears to be slipping again into recession.

Equally odd is the anti business, redistributionist rhetoric of the U.S. administration and the occupy movement in a world that continues in the grip of a widespredad financial crisis chiefly created by the foolhardy spending and debt accumulation of governments - in both America and Europe (and possibly China). It appears they arer bashing the only force that can save them.
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Nov, 2011 07:25 am
@georgeob1,
I'm guessing that the government wants to create a situation of 'plausible deniability." They can turn to their euro zone partners and say, "Well, we tried, what are we to do with an electorate like this?"; or, alterrnatively, if the people begin to piss and moan about austerity measures, they can say: "You voted for this program." There's not enough money in the world to make it worth one's while to be in government in Athens.
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  3  
Reply Tue 1 Nov, 2011 07:27 am
@georgeob1,
By the way, failure to comment in my last post doesn't mean i'm buying that horseshit about ". . . anti business, redistributionist rhetoric of the U.S. administration . . . " I believe if you ever got through a post without trying to make your partisan rhetoric look plausible, i'd fall over dead.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Nov, 2011 09:22 am
@Setanta,
You say it is partisan rhetoric. I say (and believe) it is far closer to the objective truth than the alternative sources of such rhetoric.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Nov, 2011 09:25 am
@georgeob1,
Um, that's because you're the source of the partisan rhetoric! Nobody expects you to believe any differently.

However, it has been well and long established that your rhetoric is not based on facts or any sort of study on your part, so I'm sure you understand why someone like Set wouldn't take it seriously.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Nov, 2011 09:27 am
@Setanta,
Quote:
The best thing in the world that could happen to them is if Europe cut them loose. Forgiving any of their debt is a mistake. The screws should be put to them. If that hurts Germany, France and the other relatively sound economies, so what?


I 100% agree - they should be cut loose. For their own good, really. And it wouldn't bother me one whit to see the wealthy euro banks actually be punished for their bad investments.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
CalamityJane
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Nov, 2011 09:45 am
Well, I held off long enough and hoped for a decent solution between the EU and Greece, but this non-compliance and defiance is just plain incomprehensible. It's like the beggar negotiating with the Salvation army if he really should take this winter coat handed to him, all the while it's below zero outside.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Nov, 2011 09:48 am
@CalamityJane,
CalamityJane wrote:

Well, I held off long enough and hoped for a decent solution between the EU and Greece, but this non-compliance and defiance is just plain incomprehensible. It's like the beggar negotiating with the Salvation army if he really should take this winter coat handed to him, all the while it's below zero outside.


I don't know what's so hard to understand about it. The people of the country are somewhat corrupt, they believe that the gov't is completely corrupt (and there's some evidence to prove this), and they figure they are screwed either way. The Austerity measures that the EU wants in place to approve these loans are ruinous to their way of life and it's going to destroy the economy of Greece even more than it already has been; why not just tell the EU to **** off and live with the results? At least that way, the bastards who engineered the other half of the deals take a bath, instead of being bailed out on the backs of the Greek workers (who don't consider themselves to be the source of the problem). If they're going to be screwed either way, might as well take as many people who were involved down with them as possible.

Cycloptichorn
 

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