Will the European Union Survive?

the EU is sanctioning the taking of 80% of funds in accounts at one Cyrus bank and 60% in another.....this is ******* nuts! the last thing governments should be doing now is cultivating even more lack of trustworthiness of government.

That's obviously not true.

It has been one of the conditions of the €10 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank.
And it's about the Laiki Bank, where savers will face a raid 60 per cent of savings over €100,000.


However, all this has little to do with the EU.

That's not entirely true. I agree that Cypres operated an extraordinarily loose, and, for its size, large banking system that appears to have attracted a great deal of Russian money, some of it hot. However a central cause of its colapse is exposure to Greek Bonds, and that was surely an EU problem. The implied economic strength and fiscal prudence of the major EU states protected other member states that posessed neither - and Greece was the prime example. The collective EU failure to enforce or at least replace the original stability pact was the core problem.

This thread has been inactive for the past four years - a period which has seen significant political change across the world and in the Western World in particular.

The internationalist values, which had previously dominated European politics, and to a slightly lesser extent, those of the United States, are now under serious stress in both. Trump has won the presidency in the US with a campaign centered on U.S. national interests and better control of our borders and immigration. The UK has voted for Brexit in a close election which was dominated by similar issues . Dissident political movements have arisen in France, Belgium and the Netherlands advocating similar things, and public concerns about similar issues are growing in Germany, Italy and the Scandinavian countries as well.
The first of two rounds in the French Presidential election occurs tomorrow and The FN party candidate, Marie Le Pen has long been expected to survive this round and become be a finalist in the next, two candidate, final vote in a month or so. However recent polls show some convergence in the results of the current top four candidates and a far from clear picture of which two will win in a largely four way race involving two far left, one far right (Le Pen) and one center right candidate. It has become harder now to forecast the outcome. However it is noteworthy that a candidate, certainly opposed to further expansion of EU powers in France and possibly inclined to consider severing France's ties with the union is among the major contenders

In any event the formerly dominant globalist political regimes in both Europe and North America are being increasingly confronted with political opposition from more traditional and nationalistic motivated oppositions. How all this will play out is still unclear. However in the EU much of this is political tumult is focused on opposition to the forces of "ever closer union" in the increasingly bureaucratic, judicial and frankly undemocratic government of the EU. All this of operates in conjunction (or at least in parallel) with the growing cultural and population threats from very unstable regions in North Africa and the Mid East. The EU needs population and economic growth to sustain its social welfare systems, but it has so far been chronically unable to achieve both on its own and to effectively assimilate the , often culturally hostile, immigrants who are increasingly needed to do it.

Well this thread has remained inactive since my last report of its inactivity just over two years ago. Since then a few new emerging issues have arisen to challenge both the EU and its allies.

The first, obviously is Brexit. A somewhat tumultuous process over the past year appears to be headed for a UK exit, without a negotiated deal to ameliorate some adverse side effects for both the ULK and the Union. While no other candidates come immediately to mind, this event is certainly precedent for other that could conceivably follow : the unthinkable is about to become a fact.

Other challenges remain, one with a largely a East/West divide and the other North/South . Both involve issues of national security and economic performance, and the challenge presented to the EU of mass immigration along the southern border, with limited restraints for further immigration across the Union. Neither is unique to Europe, in that the United States faces very similar challenges, though our economic performance has been less affected than that in Europe.

The gradual growth of EU sovereignty has made visible (here at least) the continuing significance of the NATO Treaty linking our mutual responsibilities to combat external threats or action. This has been exacerbated by continuing under funding , particularly by Germany, the leading EU power, of national defense and military readiness. Would the EU be able, or even willing either to confront a Russian invasion and takeover of the Baltic Nations? The recent behavior of the Putin Government in Russia makes this issue real. The continuing demographic and economic decline in Russia could either limit or motivate such an action, depending on what might actually occur.

Other external threats abound, including Iran. with its historical grudges with the Western powers, frictions with the neighboring Arab world. and a population possibly frustrated with its autocratic rulers. The social, political and economic chaos besetting the Arab world, from the Mideast to north Africa is an immediate source of possibly disruptive immigration and terrorism.

Compounding all this, the EU appears so far to have developed no strategy at all to deal with these long term threats and there appears to be little in the way of cooperation between the EU and the United States for dealing with both.

History is not over: the world remains a competitive place and the rise and fall of dominant powers across the world has not ended.