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Pension and overpopulation

 
 
Reply Tue 1 Dec, 2009 06:25 pm
In the developed countries there are pension plans both private and government and the problem would be under population once the baby boomers die off. In the developing countries the only pension plan is biological i.e. parents having as many kids as possible so their kids can look after them when they grow old. If the governments and corporations in these countries could muster their energies and creativity to device a partial pension later to a full pension plan maybe it would help parents not wanting that many kids to look after them in their old age. Family planning didn't seem to work nor providing free television sets to the villages. World over population is a problem as it is the main cause of poverty, war and pandemics from unsanitary conditions as a result of ignorance. Do you think I am right or am I just whistling in the wind?
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Type: Discussion • Score: 0 • Views: 2,010 • Replies: 19
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roger
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Dec, 2009 06:32 pm
@talk72000,
For once you may be right. On the other hand, good pensions are likely to extend the lives of the aged. I do have problems with the idea of Zimbabwa extending pension benefits.
BillRM
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Dec, 2009 06:43 pm
@talk72000,
Also the technology level of the society in question factor in very strongly.

In a low technology culture with a large percent of it total population still involved in food production children as workers pay off from an early age.

In a high technology culture children do not pay off in economic terms at all.

Pension and the lack of same is a secondary factor.

djjd62
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Dec, 2009 06:45 pm
the world does indeed seem to have a penchant for overpopulation Razz
BillRM
 
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Reply Tue 1 Dec, 2009 06:53 pm
@djjd62,
the world does indeed seem to have a penchant for overpopulation
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Not at all in the developed countries. Western European and Japan is way below the 2.1 replacement birth rate and the US is just at or near that point and our population growth would be flat if not for emigration.
djjd62
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Dec, 2009 06:55 pm
@BillRM,
my post was being, by the way of how you are saying, humour
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talk72000
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Dec, 2009 06:56 pm
@BillRM,
More and more of the poor are moving away from the farms and villages and ending up in ghettos near the bigger cities. Family farms are getting smaller as they are divvied up to the kids and it reaches a point where the size of the farm matters as to whether it will survive. A farm too small is not efficient enough nor can it build up the surplus needed to survive a bad year or crop. I feel a pension for workers in the cities should be the first step then gradually work towards helping the farms and so on.
BillRM
 
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Reply Tue 1 Dec, 2009 08:04 pm
@talk72000,
Well if they are off the farm then having many children will not be in their economic interest and humans being humans will in short order follow their own interests and cut the birth rate down. Lack of old age pensions does not change that fact.

The solution to breaking up farmland into too small plots had always been in history to limit the inherent to the oldest son.

City dwellers tend to find that investing heavily in a few children and savings is the best solution to the lack of a social safety net.

See the rate of savings in China and even without the Chinese government pressure the birth rate would be going down.

Having poor third world countries trying to fund western style pension programs is a no starter as they had too many others used for capital such as infrastructure, once more see China for an example.

talk72000
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Dec, 2009 04:37 pm
@BillRM,
China doesn't have that problem with a Communist government policy of one-child policy. It will start shrinking as the next few generation come on stream being mostly males (80% or more as a result of female infanticide). India, Africa and some South American countries would pose problems as they have somewhat democratic governments but many with corrupt governments or leaders stashing millions if not billions in secret Swiss bank accounts while their countries suffer starvation or pandemics or whatever disaster.
talk72000
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Dec, 2009 04:44 pm
@roger,
I don't think old geezers having their lives extended a few more years will make as big a dent as new babies. Life extension is linear whereas new babies is geometric. Besides who would want to live a long and decrepit life hobbles with aging muscles and impaired senses.
BillRM
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Dec, 2009 06:19 pm
@talk72000,
First in my opinion the birth rate decrease in China is more involve with the fact that children are less of a economic asset then in the past, then the evil all powerful communist government that is in fact no longer communist.

You can see that without such a government the US birth rate during the 1930s fell like a rock due to the great depression.

As far as the great inbalance of wealth that is due to a small and weak middle class and as those countries economic grow that will change also in due course.

Oh China population will not be as greatly effected by a lack of females as you might think as a fairly wealth China will end up importing 10s of millions of women from poorer countries around the world.
talk72000
 
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Reply Thu 3 Dec, 2009 06:10 pm
@BillRM,
In South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore with their wealthier economies, marriageable men are marrying mail-order brides from Thailand, China, Phillipines. I am not sure if the Japanese are doing the same as they are even more race conscious than others. Only the rich will be getting the mail-order brides. The poor will just have to die out. Who is going to marry them? 20% of 1,000,000,000 is still 200 million so China will not be underpopulated by any means. Climate really matters in survivability. The US is a cold country and the homeless will certainly while the homeless in India and China might not as winter in Southern China and India will not kill them like the winter in USA. The depression may have depressed the birth rate in USA but in warmer tropical countries poverty will not lower birth rate. Very little is required to survive in tropical countries.
talk72000
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Dec, 2009 06:12 pm
@talk72000,
Oops, I don't think old geezers having their lives extended a few more years will .NOT make as big a dent as new babies.
0 Replies
 
BillRM
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Dec, 2009 02:45 am
@talk72000,
Sorry but you are being silly if babies are an increasing burden to families instead of an economic benefit then couples will have less children in all parts of the world.

There will be no overall population problem on earth as a result and that can now be seen in more and more areas of this world.
talk72000
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Dec, 2009 05:53 pm
@BillRM,
Obviously you don't understand that population growth is geometric.

http://www.env.go.jp/en/wpaper/1994/eae230005000001.gif

It is simple mathematics. I don't know how you got your engineering degree. The performance of American car makers filled with engineers with your mathematical ability would definitely lead to bankruptcy which has been the case with General Motors and Chrysler.
ossobuco
 
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Reply Fri 4 Dec, 2009 07:04 pm
"Besides who would want to live a long and decrepit life hobbles with aging muscles and impaired senses."

You appear to understand nothing about the beauty of life.
0 Replies
 
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Dec, 2009 07:05 pm
"Besides who would want to live a long and decrepit life hobbles with aging muscles and impaired senses."

You appear to understand nothing about the preciousness of life.
0 Replies
 
BillRM
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Dec, 2009 07:51 pm
@talk72000,
Sorry but just because you got a curve going up in a non-linear manner does not prove that it will do so in the future.

Graph home prices growth from the year 1950 until the year 2007 and by using it predict the current price of homes. You would be off by a 100 percent or so.

Graph gold prices in the last few years and if you bet it will keep that slope up you will likely lost your shirt and your pants.

Sorry but just because you have such a graph tell you nothing about break points.
talk72000
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Dec, 2009 06:00 pm
@BillRM,
http://www.worldometers.info/population/

I don't expect too much of you with your limited abilities. Just check the websites and hopefully you will understand it. Every year 77 million babies are born that is twice the population of California.
BillRM
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Dec, 2009 07:21 pm
@talk72000,
Every year 77 million babies are born that is twice the population of California.
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And so what? This is not a planet wide problem it is a problem now only found in smaller and smaller areas of the world. Over population is not of any great world wide concern.

In the high technology areas overpopulation is not happening at all in fact the reverse is true. Europeans leaders are trying to find ways to get women to have at least enough children to reach the break even point.

In the lower technology areas that are changing toward higher technology it is slowing and stopping also.

Only in the poorest of the poor areas where children are still needed as cheap labor is the birth rate holding up along with the high death rate.

It is the need for cheap labor by families not lack of old age pensions that is driving this and moving them toward higher technology is the only way of stopping their sad cycle of over population and then great die outs due to bad crop years.

Hell most of African is now facing the threat of depopulation thank to HIV alone.

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