3
   

Europe Swings Right as Depression Deepens

 
 
Yankee
 
Reply Tue 9 Jun, 2009 06:24 am
The establisment Left had been crushed across most of Europe, just as it was in the early 1930s.

We have seen the ultimate crisis of capitalism -- what Marxist-historian Eric Hobsbawm calls the "dramatic equivalent of the collapse of the Soviet Union" -- yet socialists have completely failed to reap any gain from the seeming vindication of their views.

It is not clear why a chunk of the blue-collar working base has swung almost overnight from Left to Right, but clearly we are seeing the delayed detonation of two political time-bombs: rising unemployment and the growth of immigrant enclaves that resist assimilation.

Note that Right-wing incumbents in France (Sarkozy) and Italy (Berlusconi), survived the European elections unscathed.

Left-wing incumbents in Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Hungary, Poland, Denmark, and of course Britain were either slaughtered, or badly mauled.

The Dutch Labour party that has dominated national politics for the last half century fell behind the anti-immigrant movement of Geert Wilders (banned from entering Britain). It serves them right for the staggeringly stupid decision to force through the European Constitution (renamed Lisbon) after it had already been rejected by their own voters by a fat margin in the 2005 referendum.

The Portuguese Socialists face Siberian exile after seeing a 18pc drop in their vote. The slow drip-drip of debt-deflation for a boom-bust Club Med state, trapped in the eurozone with an overvalued exchange rate (viz core Europe, and the world), has suddenly turned into a torrent. The country is already in deflation (-0.6pc in April). It has been suffering its own version of Japanese perma-slump for half a decade.

Portugal's opposition is calling for an immediate vote of no censure, while the Government clings to constitutional fig-leaves to hide its naked legitimacy. "O Governo está na sua plenitude de funções," said the chief spokesman. You can guess what that means. Not long for this world, surely.

In Germany and Austria, the Social Democrats suffered their worst defeats since World War Two. I don't say that with pleasure. A vibrant labour-SPD movement is vital for German political stability. It was the peeling away of Socialist support during the Bruning deflation of the Depression years -- so like today's Weber-Trichet deflation -- that led to the catastrophic election of July 1932, when the Nazis and Communists took half the Reichstag seats.

This will not happen again, thankfully, because there is no Bolshevik threat luring business into a Faustian pact with Fascists. But the picture is not benign either. Unemployment in Germany may reach 5m by the end of 2010, according to the five 'wise men' , even if recovery comes on schedule.

But as readers know, I still fear that this depression is quietly deepening. The savings rate is rocketing in the deficit states of the US, UK, Spain, et al, as the "sinners" belatedly tighten their belts, but their fall in consumption is not being matched by an offsetting rise among the surplus "saints" states, China, Japan, Germany-Netherlands, which all points to an implosion in world demand. Yes, the West is printing money.

But that is a harder to trick to pull off than Friedman and Bernanke ever realized. And core Europe is not really printing anyway beyond its chump-change dallying in the covered bond market.

In Ireland -- now crucifixion laboratory for the EMU, and downgraded again today to AA by S&P -- the ruling Fianna Fail was reduced to three seats in the European Parliament. It is the party's worst defeat since the creation of the Republic. Premier Brian Cowen cannot be long for this world either.

As for Gordon Brown, I can only say that having derided UKIP as fringe losers, his attempt to cling top office after UKIP trounced him is quite astonishing.

I find it odd that the press continue to talk about a leadership change as if Labour could possible keep going for another year, with yet another unelected prime minister, and with its authority reduced to tatters. This Parliament ought to be dissolved immediately. An election ought to be called this week.

It is shocking that Westminster's inbred family still cannot see the writing on the wall. If this sorry saga goes on much longer, we may have to conjure up some sort of medieval impeachment process. (My colleague Phil Johnston says no such mechanism exists. Pity)

So, we may lose three or four governments in Europe in coming days or weeks -- or even worse, they may survive. The drama is unfolding as I feared. Half way through the depression, we are facing the exactly the sort of political disintegration that occurs in times of profound economic rupture.

Remember, the dangerous phase in the Great Depression was Stage II, after the collapse of Austria's Credit-Anstalt in mid-1931 set off a disastrous chain-reaction that Autumn (until then, most people thought they faced no more than a bad recession, like today).

Don't count on the political fabric of Europe holding together if our green shoots shrivel and die in the credit drought of the long hot rainless summer that lies ahead.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/ambrose_evans-pritchard/blog/2009/06/08/europe_swings_right_as_depression_deepens

 
au1929
 
  1  
Reply Tue 9 Jun, 2009 09:57 am
The US government , on the other hand, has made a sharp left.
Yankee
 
  1  
Reply Tue 9 Jun, 2009 11:21 am
Ironic, isn't it?
H2O MAN
 
  -1  
Reply Tue 9 Jun, 2009 11:42 am
@Yankee,



The US will Swing back to the Right as our Depression Deepens in 2012
Foofie
 
  2  
Reply Tue 9 Jun, 2009 06:19 pm
@H2O MAN,
H2O MAN wrote:




The US will Swing back to the Right as our Depression Deepens in 2012


Also, because those that voted for Obama as part of a liberal guilt catharsis now have a clean conscience and can vote for someone else, I believe.

I have an inkling that Sarah Palin may become popular by those that wanted a woman president, and Hillary's ship has sailed.
H2O MAN
 
  0  
Reply Tue 9 Jun, 2009 07:49 pm
@Foofie,
Foofie wrote:


I have an inkling that Sarah Palin may become popular by those that wanted a woman president, and Hillary's ship has sailed.


Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee would be a great pairing.
Finn dAbuzz
 
  3  
Reply Tue 9 Jun, 2009 08:16 pm
I have been predicting this shift for some time now in this forum.

Usually members who are European and liberal respond that the move to the right is only on the fringe; that it is not sustainable.

Europeans are not about to surrender their culture and history to muslim immigrants who not only resist assimilation but demand concessions.

If Europe's politically correct technocrats continue along the path to Eurabia, the shift right will not only continue, it will be more drastic, and violence will not be far behind.
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Jun, 2009 11:38 am
Enough drivel about the BNP already
Posted By: James Delingpole at Jun 9, 2009 at 11:55:36
Daily Telegraph

God, I am sick to death of the BNP. I don't mean the party - they only got two seats in the Euro Elections, for heaven's sake - I mean all the rival politicians and commentators and dinner party chatterers falling over themselves to say just how utterly disgusted they are by this victory for the racist "far right."

In yesterday's Twittersphere the talk was of little else and the subtexts of every Tweet could be loosely translated thus: "See what a caring, lovely, non-racist person I am?","Do you know just how many black people are close personal friends of mine? An awful lot, let me tell you"; "I have a West Indian supermarket near me. It sells all sorts of marvellous ethnic things: smelly dried fish, ackee fruit. The proprietor is a delightful fellow and we always have a jolly chat. Did I mention he's black? Well he is and it doesn't affect our relationship one bit"; "Oh, well I live next to an Indian restaurant and I so much prefer a lovely Sag Aloo to fish and chips with their awful racist Union Jack connotations. Kinder to the environment too. And the chap who runs it has taught me to say "two Cobra beers and some spicy poppadoms" in Gujerati." etc.

Next time, what I suggest these people do is come clean and Tweet the subtext. At least then we won't to have endure their half-baked, ill-thought-out, glib, bien-pensant inanities sullying one of the most important political debates of our age.

The people who voted BNP are on the front line of this debate. They don't have the luxury of being able to nip in and out of a cornucopia of simply marvellous ethnic food shops, and thrillingly directional Grime Bhangra clubs and delightful arthouse cinemas selling wholemeal samosas and showing seasons of Iranian cinema, before retreating to their lovely safe white enclaves. It's on their doorstep, all the time, and there's no escape: for the white working classes (of the North and North East especially) multiculturalism has been a disaster.

And this isn't, pace some tedious bien-pensant commentators, about racism pure and simple. It's partly about immigration numbers - far greater than the indigenous communities are capable of absorbing without disruption. Mainly, though, it's about assimilation.

The racial tension and unrest in Britain now would not be half so great if were not for the fact that thanks to the imbecilic liberal-leftist philosophy of "multiculturalism" two generations of immigrant communities have actually been encouraged by the apparatus of state and at taxpayer's expense NOT to assimilate. In some areas of towns in the north - Bradford, for example - white people are made to feel that they don't belong any more. And these white people whose families have been there for generations are supposed to go, what, exactly? "Ah! Bless! Bah gum I don't 'alf love living in this wonderful melting pot"?

However dangerous the BNP are - not, in fact, very, I don't think - they're not nearly so dangerous as the liberal commentators who write meaningless "Thought For The Day" drivel like "Far better would have been to enjoin our principal parties to get their act together and offer a viable politics of hope to eclipse the dark underbelly of society."

Every time a politician, media commentator, or glib dinner-party-chatterer bangs on about how disgusting they find the BNP, what they are unwittingly (at least I hope it's unwittingly) doing is shutting down the debate. "Here is a topic so beyond the pale of reasonable discussion that the only proper reaction is to pass the smelling salts, bury your head in the sand, and hope it all goes away," is what they are saying.

But it won't go away. Read Mark Steyn's America Alone: the Islamisation of Europe - it's one of the pressing problems of our age. (Why the hell do you think Geert Wilders did so well in the Euro Elections? You think, what, people just liked his crazy name?). Unchecked - and almost worse - unassimilated immigration is a threat to all Western countries.

And it's not "racist" to want to discuss this issue. It doesn't automatically make you hateful or a Nazi or the next Nick Griffin. It just means that you think.

Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Jun, 2009 01:58 pm
@Yankee,
Europe's Backlash
DAVID PRYCE-JONES
Britain is engulfed in political turmoil. And about time too. Prime Minister Gordon Brown took over from Tony Blair two years ago, and has shown consistently poor judgement ever since. For reasons that must stem from a narrow and self-regarding character he is unable to admit to mistakes, but always justifies them, thus reinforcing these poor judgements. In local elections in England (i.e. not Wales or Scotland), his Labour Party has been more or less wiped out, left without control of a single council even in its heartlands.

In simultaneous elections for the European parliament in Brussels, Labour has done even worse. In a very minimal turnout of 34 percent, Labour received only 15 percent of the vote, lower than the Conservatives by a long margin and UKIP " the United Kingdom Independence Party, a ramshackle single-issue party aimed at getting the country out of the European Union. Third, after UKIP! This is really unprecedented. Socialism itself is becoming a thing of the past.

Also unprecedented for Britain is the election to the Brussels Parliament of two members of the British National Party, which undoubtedly has a fascist core. Sir Oswald Mosley, the fascist leader of the 1930s, never succeeded in having a member of his party elected to parliament. Nick Griffin, today's fascist leader, is a good deal less intimidating than Mosley, an uncharismatic man without much powers of speech or intellect. But the Brussels Parliament is elected by proportional representation, and the BNP will therefore find quite a like-minded fascist bloc in it, comprised of various nationalities, including now Hungary which in the Jobbik Party has a real throwback to the 1930s.

However, this voting pattern does not derive from nostalgia for Hitler and Mussolini, but far more simply from the way that every European government has bent over backwards to favor Muslim immigrants over local populations. In one country after another, the government has privileged Muslim immigrants in matters of welfare benefits, housing, communal subsidies, concessions over customs that are illegal and brutal but supposed to be untouchable because sanctioned by Islam, and even in the practice of law. The ensuing Islamization of the continent is the source of immense popular anger, hitherto unexpressed. Put another way, European governments may have had benevolent intentions towards Muslims, but in practice they prove to be efficient fascist-making machines.

Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Jun, 2009 02:31 pm
Eng-a-land swings like a pendulum do
Bobbies on bicycles, two by two
Westminster Abbey, the Tower, Big Ben
The rosy red cheeks of the little children . . .
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Jun, 2009 02:48 pm
Just some facts:
the conservative European People’s Party group has preserved its position as the biggest bloc in the European parliament. Centre-right parties making significant gains in some of the largest EU countries, including France, Italy, Spain and Poland.
The Socialist group lost ground but finished well ahead of the Liberal Democrats to remain in second place.
The Greens picked up new seats, narrowing the gap with the Liberal Democrats.

The make-up of the new EU parliament:

http://i42.tinypic.com/2hzlu0l.jpg
http://i44.tinypic.com/14xfkli.jpg
http://i41.tinypic.com/6thg1v.jpg

Graphics via the EU-Parliament website.

Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Jun, 2009 02:56 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
Walter Hinteler wrote:

Graphics via the EU-Parliament website.


Forgot the LINK - you can get the 27 national results from that site, too.
0 Replies
 
Foofie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Jun, 2009 06:21 pm
@H2O MAN,
H2O MAN wrote:

Foofie wrote:


I have an inkling that Sarah Palin may become popular by those that wanted a woman president, and Hillary's ship has sailed.


Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee would be a great pairing.


Yes. Take me to the voting booth. I like both of them. If the "silent majority" ever needed to end their silence, it is now.
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  2  
Reply Sat 20 Jun, 2009 04:50 pm
THE LEFT'S COLLAPSE
In Europe that is...

America's self-declared progressives see the U.S. future in Europe's welfare model. Across the Atlantic, meanwhile, voters en masse are dumping the political movement that gave them the nanny state. Hmmm.

Of late, the winning political formula in Europe is simple: Promise to ease heavy tax and regulatory burdens and shake up stagnant economies. The welfare system is seen as broken. France's Nicolas Sarkozy and Italy's Silvio Berlusconi took this path to power. In the largest economy, Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel looks poised to defeat a divided left in September's elections.

Across the Continent, the left is in disarray. France's Socialist Party, which last won a Presidential election in the 1980s, refuses to move to the center -- and further sinks in the polls. Italy's leftist parties compromised themselves in a brief two-year stint in office, before Mr. Berlusconi swept them out in April of last year. The center-left ruling parties in Britain and Spain, which inherited economies revitalized by courageous politicians who implemented free-market ideas, are also in trouble.

Even in a recession so widely attributed to unfettered capitalism, socialists are unable to take advantage. Consider the results last week of elections for the European Parliament. Center-right parties gained in Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, Britain, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and across most of eastern Europe. Sweden, Denmark and Greece were exceptions.

It's dangerous to generalize about 27 very different countries. Gordon Brown's Labour Party, in power since 1997, built on Thatcherism and now finds itself blamed for Britain's economic troubles. The new "kinder and gentler" Tories, who have sidelined Lady Thatcher, hold a comfortable lead with elections due within 12 months. Mr. Sarkozy and Ms. Merkel, though incumbents, could blame "Anglo-American capitalism" to make gains in the Parliament elections. The far right, with its bogeymen of globalization and immigration, attracts protest voters who once favored the nostrums of the left.

This political shift hardly portends the second coming of Lady Thatcher, alas. In his three tours at the Palazzo Chigi, Mr. Berlusconi has never found the mettle to push real change. Ms. Merkel, who was forced into a "grand coalition" with the Social Democrats after an inconclusive election in 2005, dropped her plans for a flat tax and other market measures. In this climate, she's not about to revive them. Two years ago, Mr. Sarkozy promised "rupture" with France's statist past and won decisively. A lot of his program has passed, but he is also a chameleon who can sound more the dirigiste than Colbert (Jean-Baptiste, not Stephen).

Except for Britain and certain quarters of Vienna, conservatism in Europe shares little with the Hayekian brand of liberalism. A paternalistic right, along with the socialists, passed restrictive labor codes and created state-run pension and health systems. The welfare state empowered narrow interests to defend the status quo. Before the Obama Administration Euro-fits the U.S. economy, Americans need to know that this model saps economic dynamism and is nearly impossible to fix.

For decades, Europeans have been frustrated with low growth, chronic unemployment and fading competitiveness. The answers tend to come from the right, and successful center-left politicians have embraced market reforms (think Tony Blair). On the Huffington Post earlier this week, columnist Robert Kuttner bemoaned the left's collapse in Europe: "American progressives used to look longingly to Europe, with its stronger trade unions and its more comprehensive social protections. Those are still there, but unraveling under assault." Failure will do that.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124545309071432827.html
0 Replies
 
contrex
 
  1  
Reply Sat 20 Jun, 2009 05:31 pm
@au1929,
au1929 wrote:
The US government , on the other hand, has made a sharp left.


Only someone who was politically illiterate would write that.
0 Replies
 
mclark
 
  2  
Reply Mon 22 Jun, 2009 11:43 am
@Finn dAbuzz,
I agree totallly. I've been predicting this for years.

Remember how America shifted left in the 1930's when the export-economy nations (Japan and Germany, with a little help from Italy) shifted to the right? This is happening again. No way the Republicans regain power in America for a generation, after they became the 'party that caused the Second Great Depression'. America swings further to the left as Europe swings further to the right. European wars with Muslim nations, aided by China, are now coming in to view.
0 Replies
 
mclark
 
  1  
Reply Mon 22 Jun, 2009 12:02 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Liberals are martyrs at heart. They want to sacrifice themselves for the sins of their fathers. It is their strength and their weakness.

Europe now is beginning to realize that they have brought the Trojan Horse into their countries. And they now realize they will need to fight for their lives, or be swallowed by the black blanket of Islam, suffocated, and removed from History.

Many in the new-far-right in Europe refer to Islam as a fascist force (which it is) -- and see themselves as being the last line of defense between a fascist Europe (read: Islamic Empire) and what they regard and honor as European values.

It's NOT the 1930's repeated...but it's going to be even more tragic and gruesome in the end.
0 Replies
 
mclark
 
  1  
Reply Mon 22 Jun, 2009 12:09 pm
@H2O MAN,
The political scenario in America in 2012 will be so dire that superficial media stars like Palin and Hucksterwannabe will step back from the podium as fast as they are able. Not much chance of these two moving to the fore.

Ron Paul is probably the only Republican/Independent who will have the weight of reform in his bag of tricks -- he's sincere; and he is a fundamentalist philosopher who can think on his feet.

The time for businessmen running America is over.
H2O MAN
 
  1  
Reply Mon 22 Jun, 2009 12:12 pm
@mclark,
I disagree.

PrezBO and the left have done such a good job of demonizing successful businessmen that they will be toxic in 2012.
mclark
 
  1  
Reply Tue 23 Jun, 2009 04:35 am
@H2O MAN,
Actually, Obama has been much more discrete than I would have liked. I would have liked to see him have Hank Paulson and his buddies at Goldman Sachs (including Geithner) sent up river with Madof. There is a lot of room in prison for these crooks on Wall Street, in Washington, and in America's insurance companies.
0 Replies
 
 

Related Topics

THE BRITISH THREAD II - Discussion by jespah
FOLLOWING THE EUROPEAN UNION - Discussion by Mapleleaf
The United Kingdom's bye bye to Europe - Discussion by Walter Hinteler
Sinti and Roma: History repeating - Discussion by Walter Hinteler
[B]THE RED ROSE COUNTY[/B] - Discussion by Mathos
Leaving today for Europe - Discussion by cicerone imposter
So you think you know Europe? - Discussion by nimh
 
  1. Forums
  2. » Europe Swings Right as Depression Deepens
Copyright © 2022 MadLab, LLC :: Terms of Service :: Privacy Policy :: Page generated in 0.03 seconds on 01/23/2022 at 02:57:20