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It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas (for Obama)

 
 
Reply Thu 9 Oct, 2008 04:15 pm
Obama has climbed out to a 3 to 1 Favorite! Perfect opportunity for doubters to really make some dough at Intrade.
http://img523.imageshack.us/img523/2952/39761118my6.jpg
Their electoral map reflects the gamblers bets on individual States. This is quite promising as well.
http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/8800/17543559ut7.jpg

As for you Intrade doubters; Pollster doesn't disagree:

http://img152.imageshack.us/img152/4908/74627734uj2.jpg

GoBama!
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Type: Discussion • Score: 0 • Views: 2,021 • Replies: 36
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 9 Oct, 2008 04:18 pm
@OCCOM BILL,
If Bush doesn't start another war, Obama is the winner.
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  2  
Reply Thu 9 Oct, 2008 04:51 pm
@OCCOM BILL,
It does look good for him, and I will be surprised, albeit pleasantly so, if he doesn't win.

It's interesting to wonder what might have happened if the economic meltdown held of until December.

Certainly it would have been a lot closer than it now will be, but timing is everything.

It's not a lead pipe lock though. If the stock market stops it's death spiral and starts moving up again it will help McCain. In and of itself it won't help enough, but it will allow people some room to worry about the next crisis. If the next one is security related, McCain could be back in the game.

Maybe al-Qaeda will nuke Paris. That would be a win-win.

While I intend to keep Hope alive, my main focus is now on the Senate races. If the Dems can win enough seats to be filibuster proof, we're doomed.

At the end of each and every presidential term, I have been better off than I was four years before and I don't really expect Obama to break the streak. He will, undoubtedly, dampen it, but he will have to actualize my worst fears to kill it.

This is not to say I don't think he will muck things up for America. I do, but if I can come out on top after Carter, I should be able to do so after Obama.

It's going to be a grim four years though, but I have faith in the American people seeing through and resisting New Age Collectivism.
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Thu 9 Oct, 2008 05:00 pm
.. as I have a faith in Merican to weather another 4 year oligarchy should McPain win.

With the present economic state of affairs, you really think that a PAlin has the knowledge and network to accomplish anything (should she be vaulted into the Capt chair)
dyslexia
 
  2  
Reply Thu 9 Oct, 2008 05:11 pm
@farmerman,
I'm sure Sarah (Spiro) Palin is more than qualified; It's quite amazing what steroids can do in enhancing performance.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 9 Oct, 2008 05:11 pm
@farmerman,
That's a thought; her ignorance may be to our benefit.
0 Replies
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  2  
Reply Thu 9 Oct, 2008 06:12 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Like you, I expect no total melt down either way. But, frankly, I expect too little progress away from some of our impending meltdowns regardless, and one may very well come up in the next 4 years, but that’s another ocean of fish. I will of course be pleased if nothing upsets the apple cart.

For a spell there, it did look like it was going to be tighter and I dreaded the thoughts of Obama trying to buy some insurance through a Biden step down/Hillary fill in. That I'll happily live without.

I don't think the Market Tank will ultimately be written into the history books as the main catalyst. First and foremost, I think the unpopularity of the Iraq war will be said to have been too big of a load to carry.

Palin, I think was a brilliant choice, but only in terms of a desperate move when a desperate measure was required. McCain was a two to one underdog coming into the DNC and the Democrats did come together there and do what needed to be done. McCain was set to tank into the abyss then; before he cunningly erased the entire DNC bounce with his Palin pick. That worked brilliantly.

Ultimately though, the excitement didn't really last, and unfortunately for McCain; she wasn't really ready for the tremendous promotion to the world stage. I'd say she did pretty well for a thinly experienced rookie from nowhere; but the task she was charged with required her to be extraordinary, not ordinary.

By contrast, Obama had the luxury of going with the safer, if boring, old white guy.

McCain didn't so much do it wrong; he just had too big of hill to climb to begin with. The silly campaign suspension stuff could have been used against him to greater affect, and it was silly, but it looks like Obama decided he didn't even need to exploit it.

At the end of the day; I don’t think they’ll say McCain did anything too terribly wrong. They’ll say Obama did it right, and never did anything too stupid to give up the lead he began with… stemming from the collective displeasure of our current President.

Not unlike four years ago; the Democrats had a limited number of choices that wouldn’t have been selected by the American people to be Bush’s successor. John Kerry was on that shortlist… and I believe Hillary Clinton would have proved to be as well.

This is all assuming this thing turns out the way it looks like it will. Wink
ebrown p
 
  2  
Reply Thu 9 Oct, 2008 06:44 pm
Don't credit the financial crisis- it has been clear for months that Obama had all the advantages. Even before the polls started swinging Obama it was obvious to me that he would win-- and I said as much.

First, it is always message and money ( and Obama has both in his favor).
Second, it was always clearly going to be about the economy (which is in Obama's favor)
Third, it was always clear that the Palin phenomenon wouldn't last-- and as predicted, her popularity has tanked (which has nothing to do with the financial crisis).

Obama is a better candidate with a better message who has run a far better campaign.

Without the financial crisis, the reasons that Obama is winning would still be true.

It would have still turned into a very comfortable Obama victory.
ebrown p
 
  1  
Reply Thu 9 Oct, 2008 06:48 pm
By the way... the way to make money in the election markets is to put money in both. For a while IEM was running 65-35 while Intrade was running 50-50.

These days I don't know where else to find such a good return with no risk.

0 Replies
 
kickycan
 
  1  
Reply Thu 9 Oct, 2008 08:45 pm
I've never voted for the guy who won before. This is going to be weird. What should I do to celebrate? Maybe I'll have a big bash here on A2K on election night.

I'll call it...Barackfest!--Election Night Party '08

Oh my god, that sucks. How about maybe

Changestock '08

I don't know...I'm going to have to think about this...
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 9 Oct, 2008 08:56 pm
@kickycan,
Barackstock sounds okay to me! LOL
kickycan
 
  1  
Reply Thu 9 Oct, 2008 08:58 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Perfect! That's the name! Barackstock is born!
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Thu 9 Oct, 2008 09:45 pm
@OCCOM BILL,
Quote:
For a spell there, it did look like it was going to be tighter and I dreaded the thoughts of Obama trying to buy some insurance through a Biden step down/Hillary fill in. That I'll happily live without.


Interesting rumor, that one. Biden said, on Sept 10, "maybe Hillary would have been a better choice." So far as I could establish, it was the following day when this rumor began to circulate (the context was post Palin-nomination, of course). But there was nothing out of the Obama camp that made the suggestion, rather it was bloggers, particularly on the right, who appear to have fostered and furthered the rumor. Some of this was hopeful "obama will look like a flipflopper" and some of it, undoubtedly, was a furtherance of the Limbaugh 'operation chaos project' (which had allied projects such as the formation of PUMA, ClintonsforMcCain, etc).
ebrown p
 
  2  
Reply Fri 10 Oct, 2008 07:20 am
@kickycan,
Quote:

I've never voted for the guy who won before.


Kicky, could you cast your vote for McCain.... just in case?
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Fri 10 Oct, 2008 11:14 am
@ebrown p,
Quote:
it was obvious to me that he would win-- and I said as much


Yes you did, and it was in such stark contrast to your clearly expressed ideology that we all knew it had to have been a keenly formulated prediction.

Laughing
0 Replies
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Fri 10 Oct, 2008 05:59 pm
@blatham,
blatham wrote:

Quote:
For a spell there, it did look like it was going to be tighter and I dreaded the thoughts of Obama trying to buy some insurance through a Biden step down/Hillary fill in. That I'll happily live without.


Interesting rumor, that one. Biden said, on Sept 10, "maybe Hillary would have been a better choice." So far as I could establish, it was the following day when this rumor began to circulate (the context was post Palin-nomination, of course). But there was nothing out of the Obama camp that made the suggestion, rather it was bloggers, particularly on the right, who appear to have fostered and furthered the rumor. Some of this was hopeful "obama will look like a flipflopper" and some of it, undoubtedly, was a furtherance of the Limbaugh 'operation chaos project' (which had allied projects such as the formation of PUMA, ClintonsforMcCain, etc).


Good to see you, Bernie

I honestly don’t know if the Hill-replace-Biden scenario occurred to me before or because of the rumor. But strategically, after watching the enormous bounce McCain got from Palin, I have to assume it crossed more than one mind as a potential emergency measure. While I personally think it would be a disastrous move, there is no shortage of dissenting opinions.

I don’t believe anyone was hopeful "Obama will look like a flipflopper." Frankly, I don’t think the charge itself carries any weight. Yes, it stuck to John Kerry, and many deemed him an untrustworthy weathervane (including me), but it had nothing to do with the name flipflopper. It had to do with his record and the lousy job he did of explaining it. You’ve no doubt noticed lots of people trying to hang the flipflopper sign on plenty of worthy politicians, but it just doesn’t stick. Kerry lost ground for being a flipflopper, not because he was called one.

The hell bent Hill-people continue to intrigue me. I suspect the famous ones are advancing their fame at the expense of their convictions, and the non-famous are just self-defeating fools.

Isn’t this cute, btw:

http://o.aolcdn.com/photo-hub/news_gallery/5/8/580359/1223675780551.JPEG

Source
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Fri 10 Oct, 2008 06:15 pm
@OCCOM BILL,
I think the one thing that could sink Obama right now would be an eratic move, such as switching running mates, or reversing any major positions. He has to hold a steady and measured course.
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Fri 10 Oct, 2008 06:26 pm
@edgarblythe,
edgarblythe wrote:

I think the one thing that could sink Obama right now would be an eratic move, such as switching running mates, or reversing any major positions. He has to hold a steady and measured course.
I couldn't agree more. Well, an erratic move or a game-changing event… and possibly a really elective last minute sliming (you know they’re going to try.) I only ever considered that anyone would consider such a desperate measure as a VP switch, if times got desperate. They ain't. Wink
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Fri 10 Oct, 2008 10:43 pm
@edgarblythe,
Quote:
...such as switching running mates, or reversing any major positions


Fear not edgar. The former would only have happened if Obama found himself 11 points behind in the polls, and the latter has frequently happened already but with no ill effects for The Expected One.
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Fri 10 Oct, 2008 10:51 pm
@OCCOM BILL,
Quote:
...and possibly a really elective last minute sliming (you know they’re going to try.)


Yes, horrific sliming like bringing up his associations with

Bill "He was just a guy in the neighborhood" Ayers

Jeremiah "I never heard him say those things" Wright

Tony "I didn't know about his problems" Rezko

You may or may not think the associations mean very much, but do you really buy Obama's explanations?
 

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