"I’ve just finished reading Dan Kennedy on the media’s negative reaction to John McCain’s awful speech last night, and nowhere in it does he mention a very salient fact - that after the speech, Intrade’s price for McCain becoming president increased significantly, while Obama declined."
He has the figures, so go over and check them out. They indicate something's moving below the short term weather system of the polls.
As I have mentioned on a previous thread, I get a sense that all those fervent conservatives for Obama from earlier in the year are going to disappear and slope quietly back across the party lines just about now, now that the Republican party has chosen someone to make them feel good about.