Revealed: new doubts on Blair's Iraq dossier

Revealed: new doubts on Blair's Iraq dossier
Martin Bright, Gaby Hinsliff and Antony Barnett
Sunday September 14, 2003
The Observer

Dramatic new evidence from the intelligence services casts fresh doubts over Tony Blair's central claim that Iraq continued to produce chemical and biological weapons until the outbreak of war, The Observer can reveal.

Newly disclosed Cabinet Office documents show that the Prime Minister's categorical assertion was based only on a single source and was attacked as 'too strong' by a senior intelligence official. The same official attacks the dossier's descriptions of the graphic effects of mustard gas and VX, a nerve agent, as 'grossly misleading'.

The production claim, which remained in the dossier despite warnings from experts, was repeated in Blair's foreword to the dossier and, more crucially, in the key Commons debate on 24 September last year after the dossier was published.

He told Parliament: '[The dossier] concludes that Iraq has chemical and biological weapons [and] that Saddam has continued to produce them.'

Single-source claims are not usually considered reliable by the intelligence services and have become notorious since the death of Ministry of Defence scientist Dr David Kelly focused attention on the uncorroborated claim that Saddam could deploy his weapons of mass destruction within 45 minutes.

The Liberal Democrats' foreign and defence spokesman Menzies Campbell said: 'This is a further and serious undermining of the Prime Minister's case for war. After the exposure of the 45-minute claim, no one can continue to have any confidence in assertions based on a single source.'

The new documents were only sent to the Hutton inquiry into the death of Kelly late last week and will be published tomorrow, amid strong speculation that Sir Richard Dearlove, head of M16, is to appear as a surprise witness.

They came amid claims that Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, was still arguing even on the brink of military action for the Prime Minister not to commit troops. A book by political journalist John Kampfner also claims Blair 'had his doubts throughout' about the intelligence, and that he secretly agreed to go to war in spring 2002 during talks with President George W. Bush in Texas. The Prime Minister has repeatedly insisted he finally made up his mind just before the parliamentary vote 11 months later.

The documents obtained by the Observer will fuel debate on whether experts' concerns were suppressed in the rush to publish the September dossier on Iraqi weapons, which strengthened the case for war.

And they shed a revealing new light on last Thursday's report on intelligence handling by the House of Com mons Intelligence and Security Committee (ISC), which has access to classified information.

They criticised the section on chemical and biological weapons, saying that the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) drawing up the dossier for Downing Street did not know for sure what banned agents had been produced and in what quantities, and that 'this uncertainty should have been highlighted to give a balanced view of Saddam's chemical and biological capacity'. The memos seen by The Observer show such concerns were echoed far more bluntly behind the scenes.

The first letter, from a member of Defence Intelligence staff invited to comment on the then draft dossier, highlights a key paragraph stating Iraq had a 'useable chemical and biological capability' including 'recent production of chemical agents'. The official says these words are 'too strong', adding: 'This is based on a single source.'

A second internal memo, also from a Defence Intelligence official, four days before the dossier's publication, says it 'still includes a number of statements not supported by the evidence available to me'. It had not been established 'beyond doubt that Saddam has continued to produce chemical and biological weapons'.

Air Marshal Sir Joe French, former head of Defence Intelligence, and his deputy Tony Cragg, will be questioned by the Hutton inquiry tomorrow. They are likely to be asked how and why experts' complaints were dismissed. The inquiry will also question Greg Dyke, director general of the BBC, about why the corporation refused to back down on claims that Alastair Campbell 'sexed up' the dossier.

Campbell was exonerated last week by the ISC, but it did find that the section on chemical and biological weapons had been hardened up in early September.

Although this reflected new intelligence, 'much of it was still explicitly based on judgment and assessment', rather than hard facts. JIC papers should have done more to point out 'the uncertainties and gaps in the UK's knowledge'.

Downing Street refused last night to comment on the disclosures, saying that all evidence to the Hutton inquiry was a matter for the law lord himself.

Reports of a row between the Government and the Church of England over next month's planned 'thanksgiving' ceremony for troops at St Paul's were played down by the Ministry of Defence, which said a service had now been agreed.