Our own Roswell wrote:I would also point out that even without Von Neumann machines, all it would take is one single technological civilization (with a healthy desire to reproduce and the inclination to colonize), to cover an entire galaxy within 10 million years (even without suprauminal drives).
This suffers from the same naivete as Fermi's original question. To colonize involves huge resources in energy and materials to get enough materials and people out of the mother well, and to support them on their journey to a colonization site, and to sustain them until they are self-supporting.
Now, suppose we did that here. We've got six billion people here. It would be absurd to suggest we could solve our population problems in this way, because you'd need to get at least a billion, and preferably two billion off the planet,
safely, to make a significant difference. Ask yourself just how probable that would be.
Even if you just suggest small colonizing missions, with a few thousand people to assure genetic diversity, it is naive to think this is doable, in a social sense. To get a few thousand people out there, safe and sound, with enough resources to make it to a habitable planet light years away, and with enough resources to make a good start . . .
Would you be willing to give up air travel, along with everybody else on the planet (which applies to all these questions), for several years to several decades (a time span which applies to all these questions)?
Would you be willing to give up privately owned vehicles of any description?
Would you be willing to give up air conditioning?
Would you be willing to give up all imported goods?
Would you be willing to subsist on only those food and goods which can be produced within a say, 100 kilometer radius of your home?
Would you be willing to do all of that for what would essentially be a group of strangers, and with no demonstrable benefit to you, to your children, to your grandchildren, to your great grandchildren, etc.?
Because that is the kind of sacrifice the entire planet would have to make in energy and material resources to put all that would be needed out of the mother well (the gravity well of the home planet).