2
   

Food costs/prices rising, what are the causes?

 
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 10:37 am
CalamityJane wrote:
In Brazil they produce ethanol from sugar, as they have plenty of
sugar cane to fuel. We in the US have plenty of corn.


True enough, but the fact is that with current processes, the ethanol yield from corn is much less (per acre, or per unit of energy consumed in production) than that from sugar. There is a lot of research gong on now for efficient ethanol production from cellulose, but it is hard to tell what it might yield, or when. If it is successful then we will have the ability to produce ethanol from grasses, cornstalks and many other sources, yielding a vast feedstock that doesn't compete directly with food. Until then, the fact is that our currently subsidized ethanol production from corn actually yields little more fuel than is consumed in producing it.

Other biofuels mostly involve the production of deisel fuel. The use of deisel engines in this country is severely constrained by legal limits on the particulate content in exhaust gases - even though these engines are usually a good deal more efficient than Otto cycle IC engines. That is a problem that more enlightened regulation and auto industry investment could (and should) solve.

We burn enough natural gas in the production of electrical power to provide for over half of our transportation needs (and petroleum imports). It would be fairly easy to replace that electrical power with new, zero-emission nuclear plants in a short time (a decade or so). That would solve our GHG problem, wipe out half of our petroleum imports in one stroke. Equally important, it would cost less than our current sources.
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 10:53 am
The Mogambo Guru wrote-


Quote:
"The IMF, glorying as ever in its failures, just like the Federal Reserve, now promotes the laughable idea to 'tackle' rising food prices by having donor economies give other people money to pay higher food prices! Hahaha!"

If you want to see why the damned government is continually raising your taxes, spending more and more money, growing bigger and bigger all the damned time and locking up a full one percent of the population in prison, part of the answer is in the Pinellas Park Beacon newspaper, which reported that federal search warrants were executed at three local pharmacies as part of an investigation into healthcare fraud. So far, so good.

The funny part is that "the agencies involved in the investigation are representatives of the Florida Department of Law Enforcement, Pinellas County Sheriff's Office, Florida Attorney General's Office - Medicaid Fraud Control Unit, Health and Human Services - OIG, United States Office of Personnel Management - OIG, Drug Enforcement Administration, Defense Criminal Investigative Service, United States Attorney's Office and the Federal Bureau of Investigation."

It's like when there is a simple, everyday accident on the road, and suddenly the whole highway is completely shut down because there are police everywhere, police cars all over the place, hazardous materials handling people trundling around in their bulky suits testing for dangerous substances, bomb disposal people trundling around in THEIR bulky suits, SWAT teams taking up positions in the surrounding area, fire trucks, ambulances, police helicopters and even K-9 units swarming all over the highway!

I mean, it's amazing how many government employees are seemingly standing around looking for something to do with their latest equipment upgrades, and itching for a chance to put all that expensive training to work, to (I assume) hopefully show how all of those huge departmental expenses are "proving" to be of compelling value during the upcoming city/county/state budget reviews.


"And the riot squad they're restless,
They need somewhere to go."

Bob Dylan circa 1965.
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 11:08 am
In a recent book Mr Nigel Lawson, Mrs Thatcher's Chancellor of the Exchequer waved away, dismissively, the whole idea of bio-fuel.

Are there figures for the amount of energy falling on, say, a square kilometer of the earth's surface and for conversion coefficients of different crops for energy used by man.

Is there any chance of such a source of energy competing without tariffs and subsidies against energy collected over millions of years and stored in fossil fuels?

Can plant energy sources compete with photcells?
0 Replies
 
BumbleBeeBoogie
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 11:19 am
BBB
spendius wrote:
In a recent book Mr Nigel Lawson, Mrs Thatcher's Chancellor of the Exchequer waved away, dismissively, the whole idea of bio-fuel.

Are there figures for the amount of energy falling on, say, a square kilometer of the earth's surface and for conversion coefficients of different crops for energy used by man.

Is there any chance of such a source of energy competing without tariffs and subsidies against energy collected over millions of years and stored in fossil fuels?

Can plant energy sources compete with photcells?


Luddites are to be found everywhere until they become extinct.

BBB
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 11:55 am
That's as maybe but you need to show that Mr Lawson is a Luddite to avoid the statement being a meaningless blurt; possibly being not even true if the meek do inherit the earth. As they will.

And to answer the points I asked might justify posting.
0 Replies
 
eoe
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 12:19 pm
What are the causes? Usually there's only one.
Greed.
0 Replies
 
CalamityJane
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 12:31 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
True enough, but the fact is that with current processes, the ethanol yield from corn is much less (per acre, or per unit of energy consumed in production) than that from sugar.


You are right, George. Yet, the US doesn't have the climate to produce
enough sugar cane like Brazil, and with our global warming trends,
the soil conditions for anything other than corn, will get slimmer and slimmer in the years to come.

Thus, perhaps the reason for steeper prices for other grains.

Quote:
There is a lot of research gong on now for efficient ethanol production from cellulose, but it is hard to tell what it might yield, or when. If it is successful then we will have the ability to produce ethanol from grasses, cornstalks and many other sources, yielding a vast feedstock that doesn't compete directly with food. Until then, the fact is that our currently subsidized ethanol production from corn actually yields little more fuel than is consumed in producing it.


Exactly. The more sources we have to produce ethanol, the better for
the consumer.

Quote:
Other biofuels mostly involve the production of deisel fuel. The use of deisel engines in this country is severely constrained by legal limits on the particulate content in exhaust gases - even though these engines are usually a good deal more efficient than Otto cycle IC engines. That is a problem that more enlightened regulation and auto industry investment could (and should) solve.


Well, in Europe, most cars run on Diesel fuel. Mercedes has introduced (once more) a Diesel fueled model to the United States. We will see how
the sales figures are.
0 Replies
 
CalamityJane
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 12:37 pm
George, solar energy is the answer

Quote:
Solar plants consume little or no fuel, saving billions of dollars year after year. The infrastructure would displace 300 large coal-fired power plants and 300 more large natural gas plants and all the fuels they consume. The plan would effectively eliminate all imported oil, fundamentally cutting U.S. trade deficits and easing political tension in the Middle East and elsewhere. Because solar technologies are almost pollution-free, the plan would also reduce greenhouse gas emissions from power plants by 1.7 billion tons a year, and another 1.9 billion tons from gasoline vehicles would be displaced by plug-in hybrids refueled by the solar power grid. In 2050 U.S. carbon dioxide emissions would be 62 percent below 2005 levels, putting a major brake on global warming.



Source
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 01:15 pm
CalamityJane wrote:
George, solar energy is the answer


I certainly agree about the environmental merits of solar power and that it merits continued investigation & research to find economic applications for it. However solar power costs a LOT more than our conventional sources -- about twice the cost of power derived from coal or natural gas fired plants and about three times the cost of power from our nuclear plants.

Moreover, solar power is unevenly available across the country and a significantly increased investment in transmission facilities would be required to support a national grid based on solar power.

I don't think our economy could endure a doubling or tripling of our basic energy costs without huge dislocations of our patterns of production & consumption, and very significant social & international political consequences.

Even in Europe, where the political commitment to resolving the AGW matter is high (although that is matched by an equally high level of hypocrisy in terms of failing to match words with actions --except for Germany, which is investing heavily in renewables, mostly wind power) there has been very little progress in the application of solar power. Lots of high-sounding rhetoric, but solar power there is no more advanced than it is here (less than 2% of consumption). The reason for this is its cost.

I believe there is real potential for applications of solar power to replace some of the electrical power consumed in homes, offices and some industrial facilities, particularly in some regions of the country - Southern California, a good example. I also believe we should continue to subsidize such applications at about the level we are doing now. However this doesn't reach the major portion of our consumption of electrical energy, and, as we have already seen, the relatively high cost seriously limits the willingness of people to use it.

Nuclear plants are safe and very efficient (the lowest cost source we have, except for hydropower from dams). They can be used with equal efficiency in northern latitudes. The 98 operating nuclear plants we have today deliver 20% of our total electrical power and have a better operational reliability record and lower cost profiles than the coal & gas plants that compete with them. Merely doubling the number of these plants would achieve the goals set for us in the ill-conceived Kyoto treaty. The most amazing thing about the current energy "crisis" is that we haven't done so already.

The good news is that new nuclear plants are really coming. At least a dozen new plants are scheduled for construction in the next seven years - mostly co-located with existing plants.
0 Replies
 
CalamityJane
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 02:06 pm
Agreed George, the initial cost for solar energy are exorbitant high,
however once the panels and energy storage facilities are set up,
the savings will be substantial. Sunlight is for free! There is no emission
from solar panels, and there is no contribution to the greenhouse effect.

Don't consider this as a state to state problem, when parts of the
southern US can produce an alternative energy source for the entire United States.

With more research and technology, solar energy can be more effective
on a smaller scale and far more cost effective than it is now. I am
convinced that in 10 years time, the solar technology will be superior to
all other sources.
0 Replies
 
CalamityJane
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 02:25 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
Nuclear plants are safe and very efficient (the lowest cost source we have, except for hydropower from dams). They can be used with equal efficiency in northern latitudes. The 98 operating nuclear plants we have today deliver 20% of our total electrical power and have a better operational reliability record and lower cost profiles than the coal & gas plants that compete with them. Merely doubling the number of these plants would achieve the goals set for us in the ill-conceived Kyoto treaty. The most amazing thing about the current energy "crisis" is that we haven't done so already.


So you think, a Chernobyl cannot happen in the US? I'm not so sure,
and what about the radioctive waste, George - where do you burry that?
There is no safe way to dispose of it, as you know.

Nuclear plants need to be highly secured 24/7, and it costs additionally.

Is there enough uranium mining done to supply all the additional nuclear
plants, and for how long will the uranium last?
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 02:27 pm
The question relates to today's sunpower and the millions of years stored sunpower.

George- how are nuclear costing comparisons at $40 oil. Which can happen. Same with bio-fuel.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 02:27 pm
Energy storage is a very difficult thing to do on the scale of regional electrical power consumption. We don't have any such facilities, and, as far as I know, none are planned or contemplated.

The post construction operating costs of solar power are higher than you may think (enormous land areas are required and because of the low power densities involved, very extensive and expensive power collection and transmission facilities are required). The post construction operating costs of nuclear power are still three to five times lower (per unit of power produced) than solar.

Again, I believe the small scale local applications of solar power are worthwhile and should be continued - even though, with subsidies, they are still more expensive than conventional alternatives. The limit here is that this won't ever exceed (say) 20% of our total consumption. It is the large scale applications of solar power - major installations producing (say) 1,000MW, delivering power to the grid, that are the most problematic - at least with available technology. No such plants exist - anywhere, and their costs would be enormous. It simply isn't yet an available, feasible technology.

I'm all for more research on both large and small scale applications of solar power, and I agree that in the long run (say four or five decades) it may well be the best large-scale source for us. For large-scale applications, solar is simply not yet a feasible option.
0 Replies
 
CalamityJane
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 02:29 pm
I guess there won't be enough uranium left


Quote:
This is the conclusion of Thomas Heff, a research affiliate at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), who believes that the proposed escalation in the world's nuclear power facilities will lead to a shortfall in the quantities of fuel (mainly enriched uranium) necessary to run the reactors. He thinks that uranium "inventories" (reserves) are dwindling fast, and that there is a slackening in investment in securing future supplies, certainly in the face of proposed numbers of new nuclear plants to be inaugurated across the world.


And this here is confirming the shortage of uranium
http://www.uraniumminer.net/
0 Replies
 
Francis
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 02:37 pm
spendius wrote:
The question relates to today's sunpower and the millions of years stored sunpower.


Wasn't it Intelligently designed? Twisted Evil
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 02:41 pm
A real issue. There has been almost no investment in uranium mining or enrichment in the last few decades. However, the new plant construction to which you referred has already stimulated new investment in uranium extraction, and added investments in enrichment will surely follow.

Significantly the shortages will affect other countries far more than us.
The United States has huge reserves of enriched uranium left over from Cold war weapons programs, and equally large reserves of plutonium that could readily be used in new designed reactors. Together these sources could meet our current consumption needs for several centuries.

The reprocessing of spent fuel from existing reactors (something that by law we don't do) could yield new fuel for modified reactors, on an almost 1 for 1 basis - thus doubling the power potential from existing fuel.

Finally prototype designs have already been tested for fast fission reactors that could use the abundant U-238 isotope, yielding a hundred-fold increase in fuel availability. (Though I should confess that I don't know enough about the practical safety & efficiency aspects of these designs.)

Your point about the ultimate finiteness of fissile fuel is probably valid, but over a much longer time scale than you may realize. However, I do agree with you that in a long enough run, solar must be the answer.
0 Replies
 
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 02:50 pm
Another thing to worry about, stem rust/wheat production -
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/26/opinion/26borlaug.html?scp=1&sq=rust+never+sleeps&st=nyt
0 Replies
 
CalamityJane
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 02:52 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
However, I do agree with you that in a long enough run, solar must be the answer.


Yes, but by the time, solar power is considered a sole energy supplier,
we will have exhausted all other natural reserves, in addition to having
excessive amounts of radioactive waste, not to mention the possibility
of a nuclear accident which can and does happen. http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/3mile-isle.html
0 Replies
 
CalamityJane
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 02:54 pm
ossobuco wrote:


Interesting. I can't read the article, but will google for more info.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Apr, 2008 03:38 pm
CalamityJane wrote:
georgeob1 wrote:
Nuclear plants are safe and very efficient (the lowest cost source we have, except for hydropower from dams). They can be used with equal efficiency in northern latitudes. The 98 operating nuclear plants we have today deliver 20% of our total electrical power and have a better operational reliability record and lower cost profiles than the coal & gas plants that compete with them. Merely doubling the number of these plants would achieve the goals set for us in the ill-conceived Kyoto treaty. The most amazing thing about the current energy "crisis" is that we haven't done so already.


So you think, a Chernobyl cannot happen in the US? I'm not so sure,
and what about the radioctive waste, George - where do you burry that?
There is no safe way to dispose of it, as you know.

Nuclear plants need to be highly secured 24/7, and it costs additionally.

Is there enough uranium mining done to supply all the additional nuclear
plants, and for how long will the uranium last?


The Chernobyl Reactor was of a type optimized for plutonium production as part of the Soviet nuclear weapons program. Without exception, every Western nation rejected applications of this graphite-moderated design for public power production, based on theoretical considerations involving the safety and stability of the reactor in several prominent accident scenarios. Only the Soviet Union used this type of reactor for power production.

Thus, strictly speaking, a Chernobyl-like accident could not happen in this country, simply becaise there are no reactors like it here. All U.S. reacors are water-moderated and cooled, roughly one third boiling water reactors, and two thirds pressurized water reactors. All of these designs are intrinsically self-limiting and safe under nearly all accident scenarios, particularly including those that occurred at Chernobyl.

You included a link to the NRC report on the Three Mile Island accident, but I wonder if you read it. Did you note the assessment of the impact on public health outside the plant?? None, zero, zip, nada. No adverse effect whatever. The public dose of one additional millirem was about what you would get on a flight from San Diego to LA. Hardly anything significant. And that was the worst accident we have seen after 40 years of delivering 20% of our electrical energy needs - a safety record far better than any other source of energy.

Safe disposal of the spent nuclear fuel is a completely solved problem from the engineering and physics perspective. Politically it remains an unsolved problem in this country because of the NIMBY effect. The public radiation dose from burning the coal that yields 50% of our electrical energy far, far exceeds what results from the nuclear plants that deliver 20% of our electrical power, and every year delivers a dose that exceeds the lifetime projections of the dose in regions directly adjacent to the storage facility at Yucca Mountain (that is if anyone was actually there in that empty desert.). Moreover the biological pathway for the public radiation dose resulting from burning coal (airborne particulate) is far more deadly than that resulting from the operation of nuclear reactors or the storage of spent fuel.

The nuclear "safety" issue is primarily psychological - the fear of hazards unseen and poorly understood.
0 Replies
 
 

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