Serbs See Rift With West if Kosovo Gains Independence

September 16, 2007
Serbs See Rift With West if Kosovo Gains Independence
By NICHOLAS WOOD
New York Times

BELGRADE, Serbia ?- Eight years after it was hit by NATO airstrikes, the former Yugoslav Defense Ministry still lies in ruins on Knez Milos Street, a reminder of what the Serbs consider unwarranted aggression by the West in the war over the Serbian province of Kosovo.

Their anger is flaring again as Western governments, particularly the United States, speak of recognizing Kosovo this year as an independent state. The governments say that in the absence of reconciliation, doing so would help stabilize the region by officially separating the Albanian-dominated province from the rest of Serbia.

Serbian politicians, even pro-Western ones, worry that a recognition of Kosovo would introduce a new era of Serbian isolation and hostility toward the West, leaving Europe with little sway here.

Since the war ended, in 1999, Europe has tried to integrate Serbia into NATO and the European Union. As a regional power, Serbia expected an easy path into Europe, especially since many of its neighbors have joined the union.

But Europe has also demanded that Serbs make a fresh start by chasing down important war crimes suspects wanted at the tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in The Hague. Serbia has complied only fitfully.

If Western countries recognize Kosovo, then "we do not need the European Union," Velimir Ilic, Serbia's minister of infrastructure and an important political ally of the Serbian prime minister, said in an interview. "It means they are not our friends."

He added, "It is a tough choice, but Serbia has its pride and its integrity."

Mr. Ilic, who has a reputation as a populist politician, is the only senior government official to issue such a statement. But others agree that a nationalist reaction would chill relations with the West.

A widespread recognition of Kosovo "could lead to a chain of events with unforeseen consequences, including the loss of Serbia's European perspective," Leon Koen, the former leader of Serbia's negotiating team on Kosovo, wrote in the daily newspaper Dnevnik.

Serbia's senior diplomat for European integration predicted that whatever support there was among Serbs for arresting war crime suspects and sending them to The Hague would vanish if Kosovo were recognized.

"I can't see how anybody would be ready to support cooperation" with the tribunal, said Milica Delevic, a reformist who is Serbia's assistant foreign minister responsible for relations with the European Union. "We will be in trouble."

Western governments are determined to resolve Kosovo's future to stabilize the province and calm the ethnic Albanians, who make up more than 90 percent of the population and clamor for independence. The United States has spoken openly of recognizing Kosovo and is pushing the Europeans to settle on a policy.

But the Europeans have painted themselves into a corner, having pushed for a deal at the United Nations Security Council that Russia has blocked. That leaves Europe divided just as it is trying to display a strong foreign policy.

Kosovo has been administered by the United Nations since 1999, after a NATO bombing campaign there to oust Serbian forces that had committed widespread atrocities against ethnic Albanians.

The wartime Yugoslav president, Slobodan Milosevic, was defeated in elections in 2000 and turned over to the war crimes tribunal in The Hague, where he died while his trial was under way. Yugoslavia continued its dissolution, with Montenegro claiming independence from Serbia in May 2006.

Meanwhile, Serbia has made faltering progress toward membership in the European Union and NATO. It hopes to complete formal agreements on closer ties with Europe this year, and last year, Serbia became a member of the NATO Partnership for Peace program, one step short of full membership in the alliance.

Senior members of the pro-Western Democratic Party ?- including the Serbian president, Boris Tadic, and the foreign minister, Vuk Jeremic ?- have reassured Western allies that Serbia remains committed to membership in European-Atlantic institutions regardless of what happens in Kosovo.

But signs of a break with the West are emerging, and officials close to the Serbian prime minister, Vojislav Kostunica, are advocating a closer relationship with Russia, the ally that has forestalled attempts in the Security Council to grant Kosovo independence.

Political analysts say that conservative newspapers and state-owned news media have promoted more favorable views of Russia, and of President Vladimir V. Putin in particular.

At the same time conservatives within Mr. Kostunica's circle are questioning the value of ties with NATO.

"We want cooperation, but not full membership," said Dusan Prorokovic, Serbia's state secretary for Kosovo, and a senior member of Mr. Kostunica's Serbian Democratic Party. Mr. Prorokovic added that most Serbs had not forgiven the alliance for its entry into the war and the 78-day bombing campaign. "Personally, I cannot forget that," he said.

Two senior government ministers have accused NATO of trying to make Kosovo a state for its own purposes.

"The debate is being steered in a direction that makes strategy toward NATO membership and the European Union very difficult," said Ms. Delevic, the assistant foreign minister.

European Union officials insist that a compromise between ethnic Albanians and Serbs is possible.

Whatever the outcome, officials in Brussels contend that Serbia's long-term interests lie with the West. "I don't think Serbs want to be part of the Russian Federation," said Cristina Gallach, spokeswoman for Javier Solana, the European Union's chief foreign policy representative. "They see their future in the European Union."

But as the decision time for Kosovo looms, regional analysts say that the nationalists who dominate Serbia's Parliament control events in Serbia.

"People in Brussels presume that every country in Europe is dying to get into the European Union," said James Lyon, Belgrade director of the International Crisis Group, a policy research organization with offices throughout the Balkans. But if Kosovo splits off, Europe's leverage over Serbia will evaporate, with its ability to promote change, he said in a telephone interview.

"What do you do with a country that doesn't want E.U. membership?" he said.