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Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

 
 
msolga
 
  0  
Reply Mon 21 Nov, 2011 08:58 pm
@hawkeye10,
I disagree with you about the "ongoing revolution" being a "train wreck" & not much else.

I think what we are witnessing now is the next phase (some call it the "Arab Autumn") in which the people continue to fight for the ideals of their revolution to be realized.

The military "interim government" has turned out to be just as corrupt & offensive as Muburak's rule was.

I greatly admire the Egyptian peoples' determination in continuing to fight for what they want & believe in.

Egypt cabinet resigns as protests intensify:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/11/20111121172949588785.html

-
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Mon 21 Nov, 2011 09:15 pm
@msolga,
Quote:
I greatly admire the Egyptian peoples' determination in continuing to fight for what they want & believe in
as the years pile up where the answer to the question "are you better off than you were last year?" is no we will likely see them agree to be ruled by people little better than Mubarak was, just to get some stability. I have seen several analysis pieces that chalk up the current unrest to economics, where the first one was about politics, which sounds right to me. Those political ideals of yours are likely to get sold pretty darn cheap in a few years.

Quote:
The military "interim government" has turned out to be just as corrupt & offensive as Muburak's rule was.
Shocker right there *sarcasm* The Egyptian elite are pretty weak though, and the Muslim radicals too radical for the people at least for now and too small in number to run the country, so the people are stuck with the military or chaos. I expect them to choose the military.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 21 Nov, 2011 09:18 pm
@hawkeye10,
How in the world can you arrive at conclusions on Libya?
msolga
 
  0  
Reply Mon 21 Nov, 2011 09:21 pm
@hawkeye10,
From the BBC:
Quote:

22 November 2011 Last updated at 00:44 GMT


Q&A: Egypt's new protests

After deadly clashes between protesters and security forces in Egypt, the BBC's Yolande Knell reports on what lies behind the latest round of protests.

Why are the protesters back?

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/56839000/jpg/_56839839_013374576-1.jpg
Protesters run away from tear gas during clashes with riot police near Tahrir Square The unrest has centred on Cairo's Tahrir Square

Protesters are angry at the slow pace of reforms and are demanding the end of military rule. While many welcomed the hand-over of power to the army after President Hosni Mubarak stepped down in February, disenchantment has steadily risen.

The ruling generals are all appointees of Mr Mubarak and have been overseeing the rocky transition to democracy for the past nine months. Activists feel they have failed to dismantle remnants of the old regime or deal with the faltering economy and festering social problems, seeking instead to consolidate their hold on power.

There have been signs that the military is seeking to oversee the priority for the next parliament - the formation of a committee to draw up a new constitution. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (Scaf) is seeking to have veto power over this body, to enjoy a special role as "protectors" of the constitution and to insert provisions that would keep the defence budget a secret.

Who are the demonstrators?

Dissatisfaction is highest among the youth groups that joined the anti-Mubarak revolution and feel they have been marginalised and isolated. Liberals have long expressed grievances with the army, which has put 12,000 civilians on trial in military courts and is accused of torturing detainees.

Greater numbers of Islamists, who expect to be the main winners in planned parliamentary elections and see the military trying to hold sway, are now raising their voices.

The military has floated a timetable that places the full hand-over of power in late 2012 or early 2013, after a new constitution is approved and presidential elections have taken place.

Initially, protesters wanted a precise date to be set. However, a rising number are now calling for Field Marshal Tantawi and the Scaf to immediately step down in favour of an interim civilian council. Their demands also include presidential elections by 2013 and a full inquiry into the latest violence.

Protesters maintain that they will remain in Tahrir Square, the symbolic heart of the Egyptian revolution, until their demands are met. While the military has permitted mass rallies there, it has repeatedly acted to prevent long-term sit-ins that close down the centre of the capital.

Can an election happen now?

The first parliamentary elections to be held after the revolution are due to begin on 28 November and last for several months.

Before the current unrest, concerns were already being raised about whether security could be guaranteed during the long, complicated process of voting. The latest protests and the bitter atmosphere that accompanies them throw that further into doubt.

The ruling military has insisted that it is sticking to the timetable for elections and has appealed to the newly formed political parties, which have been preparing for the vote, to help clear the square and contain the situation.

Is there a way out?

It is hard to predict exactly what will happen now. Emergency meetings have been taking place among the ruling generals on how to proceed. So far they have found that brute force only intensifies activists' anger. The interim cabinet's decision to submit its resignation is a sign of how tough their position has become.

A big test for the protesters is whether they can again draw out the huge numbers that were seen in Tahrir Square during the revolution. This would increase pressure on the military to meet their demands.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15818520
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Mon 21 Nov, 2011 09:31 pm
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:

How in the world can you arrive at conclusions on Libya?
How not to arrive at that conclusion in a "country" that was never a country, with tons of military hardware, where the tribes agree on little to nothing, and which has Zero institutions in part because Gadaffi did not want any??

There is no path to a good outcome in Libya. It will take Libya a decade to get back to where they were 12 months ago, at least.

Quote:
Libya has never had a truly professional national army — a cornerstone in the building of a modern state — one that was not the personal tool of a king or dictator and purposely kept weak and divided to avert coups. And the effort at building one by the struggling new interim government may be its most difficult and important task.

Only a respected army will be able to persuade or force the various competing and heavily armed militias around the country to disarm and join together under a unified leadership. The challenge was underscored over the weekend when a militia from the town of Zintan captured Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi, Colonel Qaddafi’s son and onetime heir apparent, without any help from the army, and then refused to turn him over to the central government.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/22/world/africa/libyas-toughest-test-may-be-building-an-army.html

This being the Army that is no where in sight.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 21 Nov, 2011 09:43 pm
It took each of the principal democracies of the world a fairly long time to sort out their own internal conflicts and contradictions before they created stable democratic rule (even France is on its Sixth Republic) , and it shouldn't surprise any of us if the Egyptians (and others in the Arab world) following the early stages of a similar path don't encounter their own (sometimes violent) fits and starts as well.

Moreover the different stages of economic development and the different culltural starting points all work to make the proceess even more unpredictable and sometimes surprising from our collective perspectives.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Mon 21 Nov, 2011 10:18 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
Moreover the different stages of economic development and the different culltural starting points all work to make the proceess even more unpredictable and sometimes surprising from our collective perspectives


A collapsing global economy, Iran looking to take over the region, and the normal Israeli/ Palestinian issues add lots to the party as well. These boys and girls are going to have a swell time over the next years and decades.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Mon 21 Nov, 2011 11:29 pm
@hawkeye10,
Quote:
Three months after Col Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown, Libya's new authorities are trying to assert their control over the entire country.

Mr Keib was elected prime minister by the National Transitional Council (NTC) last month.

The NTC is a coalition of rival factions that came together to oust Col Gaddafi, who was killed in his birthplace, Sirte, on 20 October.

'Competence'
On Monday, Mr Keib said he was finalising his cabinet with the NTC and expected to announce the lineup on Tuesday.

"We will use competence as a basic measure and this way we will be able to include all of Libya's regions," he told a news conference


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15831241

Wait! Let me Guess....this not NOT mean that all of the tribes will be represented with an eye towards equality, does it........
0 Replies
 
msolga
 
  0  
Reply Tue 22 Nov, 2011 01:00 am
@georgeob1,
Yes, I mostly agree with you, George. (Just thought I'd shock you. Wink )
That's pretty much how I see recent events in Egypt till now ... the first stage was the popular movement to rid the country of Mubarak's dictatorship, the next (current) phase is the move toward civilian government by removing the military "interim government" & demanding genuine democratic elections ....
Where things go from here, in the short & long-term, who knows?
But I admire the Egyptian peoples' fierce determination enormously.

Hawkeye, I don't know how you can so confidently declare something like this:

Quote:
The Egyptian elite are pretty weak though, and the Muslim radicals too radical for the people at least for now and too small in number to run the country, so the people are stuck with the military or chaos. I expect them to choose the military.

I don't think any of us here are "experts" on internal politics in Egypt.
We gain our information & insights through the (largely Western) media.
To state that you believe the demonstrators, who have risked so much in their fight for democracy, will settle for military (order over "chaos") is perhaps underestimating the resolve of the Egyptian people?

I really can't see the point in arguing such points with you. You are speculating on the basis of your opinions & I would be speculating, too, perhaps arguing for the outcome I might prefer.

That seems to me a pretty pointless exercise, given that we are both completely removed from the situation & are receiving all our information second hand.

The reason I posted to this thread today was because of the new upheavals in Egypt. I am very interested in following the developments, but I can't pretend to be "expert" enough to predict what will eventuate. I think we are all interested observers.
-
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Nov, 2011 01:21 am
@msolga,
Quote:
I really can't see the point in arguing such points with you
If you do decide that you want to argue the point you know where to find me...then we shall see who has the best evidence.
msolga
 
  0  
Reply Tue 22 Nov, 2011 01:35 am
@hawkeye10,
I didn't think it was a competition, hawkeye.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Nov, 2011 01:50 am
@msolga,
msolga wrote:

I didn't think it was a competition, hawkeye.

If you dont let ideas and versions of the truth compete then you will never know anything about anything, all you will have is a hodgepodge of other peoples ideas and versions of truth floating around your head.
msolga
 
  0  
Reply Tue 22 Nov, 2011 01:56 am
@hawkeye10,
It's not that I have a problem with different opinions of the same events. Or different versions, as you put it. (They can't all be "the truth").
It's that I'd prefer the different perspectives presented in a discussion to be based on more than unsupported opinion & speculation.
msolga
 
  0  
Reply Tue 22 Nov, 2011 01:57 am
@msolga,
OK, you can have the last word now. Smile
I'll leave it here.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Nov, 2011 01:48 pm
@msolga,
I'm duly shocked ! Wink

I think Hawkeye's analysis is probably sound, based on the past behaviors of the major political forces in Egypt. The problem for him and all of us now is there appears to have been a so far unprecedented change in the voiced expectations of the Egyptian people, something which is quite capable of significantly changing the long-standing political equation there. Old models may no longer work and there is ample reason already to suspect them. and any predictions based on them. I think that is the central point.

hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Nov, 2011 02:07 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
been a so far unprecedented change in the voiced expectations of the Egyptian people
I dont buy that, as the first revolution was not about freedom so much as it was about dignity. The Egyptians fancy themselves to be a great culture and finally the Mubarak regime got to be too seedy to stomach. I dont think that what the people want has changed much though, and the only people who can give them what they want are the military. What remains to be seen is how far will they go to embrace Muslim fundamentalism, we are assured by observers not far but I dont buy that yet. Another thing that I am going to be watching for is how the Egyptians deal with Iran as the new Regional major power.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Nov, 2011 02:14 pm
@hawkeye10,
hawkeye10 wrote:

Quote:
been a so far unprecedented change in the voiced expectations of the Egyptian people
I dont buy that, as the first revolution was not about freedom so much as it was about dignity.


That's evidently your opinion, however, I doubt seriously that you have enough knowledge and understanding to prove or demonstrate it to a critical observer.

What happened a few months ago in Egypt was something of a type and intensity that has repeatedly produced major alterations in the political trajectories of many other countries in the world, and which in those cases has opened the political stage for new actors and new political forces. The situation in Egypt is a dynamic one, and, while your forecast is a possibility, it is by no means a certainty or even the greatest likelihood. I think that's what Olga was suggesting.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Nov, 2011 02:20 pm
@georgeob1,
I'm also in disagreement with hawk about "dignity" as the motivation for the Egyptian people to demonstrate against Mubarak. hawk has a tendency to arrive at political conclusions that are not supported by any credible source that I'm aware of, in addition to the fact that politics is a messy business that's not simple to forecast under most circumstances.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Nov, 2011 02:26 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Quote:
I'm also in disagreement with hawk about "dignity" as the motivation for the Egyptian people to demonstrate against Mubarak
All you need to do is to go back and listen to the people speak on why they were rebelling against the Regime, it was not because they had some ideological desire for democracy and it was not because they wanted more say in their own destiny, it was because the daily indignities of being an Egyptian had gotten to be too much to bare. Egyptians are at heart a rather moderate and submissive people, and I dont think that this has changed. They well might end up submitting to the radical muslims rather than the military at some point though, which would be bad for us. I suspect this is why the US has to date not back off an inch from supporting the military elite, financially and otherwise.
0 Replies
 
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Nov, 2011 04:25 pm
Quote:
Egypt military pledges faster power transfer
Last Modified: 22 Nov 2011 22:08/Al Jazeera

Egypt's ruling generals have said they are prepared to hold a referendum on immediately transferring power to civilian authority if people demand it.

In a televised address to the nation on Tuesday, Field Marshal Muhammed Hussein Tantawi, head of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), said the body is committed to holding parliamentary elections as scheduled, with the first round to begin on November 28, and to elect a president before July 2012.

....Tantawi also announced that he had accepted the resignation of the interim prime minister, Essam Sharaf.

As Tantawi finished his speech, a crowd reaching as many as 100,000 in Cairo's central Tahrir Square signalled their disapproval by chanting "Irhal!" or "Leave!" ...<cont>


http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/11/20111122173917310139.html

Quote:
Egyptian protesters reject military's timetable for elections
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 22 November 2011 20.51 GMT

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2011/11/22/1321994569785/Protesters-in-Tahrir-squa-007.jpg
Protesters at the mass rally in Tahrir Square calling for the departure of Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, head of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces.

Egypt's revolution was plunged into fresh uncertainty after hundreds of thousands of angry demonstrators rejected a promise by the country's military council on Tuesday to accelerate the transition to civilian rule.

In an extraordinary display of people power, protesters at a mass rally in Cairo's Tahrir Square demanded the immediate departure of Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, the head of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (Scaf), just as they had demanded President Hosni Mubarak's humiliating exit in February.

"We are not leaving, he leaves," the crowd chanted.

Tantawi, who served as Mubarak's defence minister for two decades, appeared on state television in full military uniform to announce that a first round of parliamentary elections would go ahead as planned next week and that presidential elections – seen as crucial to real civilian rule – would be brought forward to next summer.

Previously the military had floated late next year or early 2013 as the date for transferring power.

Tantawi said he was accepting the resignation of the civilian caretaker government led by Essam Sharaf, and that he was sorry for the estimated 30 people who had died in the latest unrest.

Egyptian media reported that Sharaf could be replaced as the head of a new government of national salvation by Mohamed ElBaradei, the former chief UN weapons inspector. ...<cont>



http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/nov/22/egypt-protesters-tahrir-square-tantawi

 

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