BS Detection: How do we know what to believe?

Discovery is mostly accidental, verification is the hard part.

Among the greatest discoveries of the 20th century were DNA structure and coding mechanisms, total accident along with some
major plagiarism

Discovery of radiation and radioactivity, a minor finding that was ignored for many years

Plate tectonics and continental drift was a theory by a crazy weatherman until a geophysicists kids were playing with daddys maps and colored in some anomalies that we take for granted now.

I teach a graduate level course in geologic research . The burst of information made available by the internet has been a 2 way sword. There is much more data available to anyone out there. All you need is a laptop and an account.

Thete is also a lot of garbage and phony data, parading as science out there. We now have to make sure our future researchers have sensitive bullshit detectors and the knowledge to discern what is , or is not BS.
Peer review committees are also up against it in the increasing waves of junk science out there. I was predicting that , soon , many of our professional societies that publish scholarly research, will need forensic specialists in the areas of "questioned documents" to sit on editorial and peer review boards

PS rosborne... Thank you for including that link about the repeal of the second law of thermo. I recall we were having a conversation over on abuzz some time ago and you (or someone had included that link) I love it.

Peer review


I'd say that peer review as a concept is undesirable. I don't want "the authorities" to decide for me what is good science and what is bad science. I would want the people I respect to filter out the bad science from the good science. Systematic, well-funded collaborative filtering is the answer to there being too much clutter around that goes by the name of science. To a certain extent this is accomplished by the tendency of scientists to link to those articles they like. You find a scientist you like, and then you go to the links he likes, which you also are likely to like, which gives rise to new links. (Or you can use a circle of friends, but that takes money to go to conferences, and the official bodies decide whom to fund.) Journals should be abolished. All research should go directly to the WEB so anyone can have free access to it. Journals accomplish nothing more than to improve type-setting and to give idiot University administrators a way to keep their jobs by judging the worth of their faculty by counting publications or positive reviews from the "official" review body of their field. Having a uniform judging body, yes, weeds out bad science, but Who cares? I don't know why people think bad science is such a big deal. No one is forcing you to pay attention to it. Even on Usenet, where there is no filtering at all, about one-quarter of the posts are somewhat interesting, and as for the rest, I suspect they are posted by just a handful of people and the people responding to these people--actually the former don't post as much clutter as others do in posting to tell them how annoying or stupid they are. What I would fear is good science being weeded out and necessarily underappreciated by employers all using the same official guide as to the value of research. So far as research is concerned, one university having just the right attitude about any given scientific field is probably worth more than thirty universities having a standard view.

But then I'm thinking more of math (what I studied) than an experimental science where lying about data is a possibility (math essentially has no data). But is peer review really effective at discovering whether an experiment was faked or bogus? I'm sceptical. Off hand, I'd say that only when the immediate truth is a matter of great consequence, e.g., whether a drug should be approved or disapproved, should something like peer review is desirable.

BS is proportionate to the distance from it. The farther away you are from the source, the more likely you'll be able to detect it.

:wink:

might be useful:

http://www.skeptictank.org/hs/factfaq.htm

Enjoy!

~I love lists. Some of these, I can't make even a guess:~
Is the Universe 15 billion years old: ~likely closer to 12 billion years old~ http://www.aish.com/societywork/sciencenature/Age_of_the_Universe.asp Is Asthma cured by sardines: ~ No, but sardines may help a little~ http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiapcf/south/06/10/offbeat.asthma.sardines/index.html
Was Colin Powell right about WMD in Iraq: ~Likely some biological weapons are hidden there; perhaps even some nukes; they may have found both, but are keeping quiet because of the Made in ____ on most of the stuff~ http://www.counterpunch.org/mahajan02062003.html
Does John Edwards talk to the dead: ~Likely some other entity is deceiving John, and/or John is a skilled lier~ http://www.csicop.org/si/2001-11/i-files.html
Did we land on the moon: ~yes/99%certain~ http://badastronomy.com/bad/misc/apollohoax.html
Do Brain enhancers work: ~They likely do something/enhance unlikely~ http://www.vitalbasics.com/focusfactor.asp?id=3&source=camp1K
Does physics invalidate Evolution: ~No, nor does evolution invalidate religion~ http://www.theonion.com/onion3631/christian_right_lobbies.html
- Do Magnets make you healthy: ~I had some success with relieving minor pains next to a magnet/ perhaps even partial cure/ my guess they rarely make anyone healthy~ http://www.healthandmagnets.com/index.htm?GTSE=GOOG&GTKW=Health+Magnets
How about Magnets and other stuff: http://www.theonion.com/onion3512/new_insoles.html
Is tongue rolling genetic: http://www.discovery.com/area/skinnyon/skinnyon970226/skinny1.html
What causes Gamma Ray Bursts: ~Some recent thinking is some neutron stars and black hole accreation disks produce a very focused beam of gamma ray that occassionally pans across Earth~ http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/newhome/headlines/ast26mar99_1.htm
Is the Sun going to explode: ~About one chance in a trillion for this century unless there is an unknown mechanism/probably never unless you count the swelling to red giant size in about 5 billion years~ http://boston.abuzz.com/interaction/s.330153
~ What killed the dinosaurs. ~ Likely that big asteriod hit near the Yucatan in SE Mexico~
Are my stocks going to go up or down
Can we deflect asteroids before they hit the Earth ~ not this year, but we can deflect half of them next decade if we spend a trillion dollars wisely, starting imediately.
Are computers going to get smart and take over ~not this decade, but probable in our future if humans continue to progress in the recent paths~
Will genetic crops cause problems ~ they already have and things will worsen as the years move on~
Is the ozone hole going to give us all a nasty sunburn ~only if you live close to the north or South Pole/Even there the hazzard is moderate.
Is pollution and human activity causing global warming ~humans likely are responsible for about 0.5 degrees c = 0.8 f of the warming~
Will Stem Cell research help us medically or corrupt us morally ~It will help us medically somewhat and be responsible for about 1% of our moral corruption~
Are the stories I read in the NY Times accurate ~about as good as the National Enquirer or the Jeff Rense radio show. Less accurate than Micheal Savage or Neil Bortz~
Is Michael Jackson crazy and broke
Will it rain tomorrow ~ yes, in at least 10,000 separate locations on planet Earth~
Is that guy selling that used car telling me the truth ~very unlikely~
Did OJ do it ~very likely
Is Elvis really dead ~Yes, but his spirit is living on and Elvis will be resurrected at the end of the millenium~
Am I dreaming ~very improbable~

There are hundreds, if not thousands of answers to almost any question you can ask ~most of the answers are likely flawed if not dead wrong~ Given that anything can be claimed, how should the general population go about estimating the veracity of information? ~You have little chance of getting much right unless the Holy Ghost will help you. Neil~

I always love the moon landing conspiracies. They remind me of a book I read as a pre-teen (by either A.C. Clarke or Ray Badbury I think..) about a space ship launched from earth and as they pass by the moon to see the back side they find miles of staging. Their "moon" is thousands of white sheets stretched over wood framing all placed in orbit and of course you can only ever see one side because if the back side were seen the gig would be up. Always good for a trip down memory lane.. lol