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FALLOUT BEGINS FOR BUSH POODLE BLAIR

 
 
Reply Fri 2 May, 2003 08:00 am
Edinburgh, May 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair's Labour Party lost seats in regional and municipal elections, the government's first political test since Blair defied public opinion to join the U.S. in waging war on Iraq.

Labour lost control of Birmingham, the U.K.'s second-biggest city, and suffered setbacks in Scotland. With results for 9,671 local council seats declared, Labour had lost 775, the opposition Conservatives had won 533, which their leader Iain Duncan Smith called a ``fantastic result,'' and the anti-war Liberal Democrats had gained 184.

``There's a warning in these elections for Tony Blair of the danger of being out of touch with Labour's traditional supporters,'' said John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University in Glasgow, Scotland.

Blair sent 45,000 troops to fight alongside the U.S. in Iraq, ignoring a million-strong anti-war protest in London and a rebellion by a third of Labour's legislators. The war ended in a coalition victory, which helped Blair limit the opposition gains.
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Dartagnan
 
  1  
Reply Fri 2 May, 2003 10:18 am
These results as a negative reaction to Blair's fealty to Bush were my first thought when I heard the news this morning...
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Fri 2 May, 2003 10:25 am
In Wales, where additionally regional/country election have been, however, Labour had a hugely successful night thanks largely to the popularity of leader Rhodri Morgan.

That will be little comfort to Tony Blair. Mr Morgan was not his chosen candidate and represents a distinctly Old Labour tradition. (More: Poll brings mixed messages)
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fbaezer
 
  1  
Reply Fri 2 May, 2003 10:31 am
The Scottish parliament was a big blow.

Labour lost 8 seats, the Scottish National Party lost 6. Conservatives and Liberal Democrats did not win or lose.
Greens won 6, Scottish Socialists won 5 and Independents won 4.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Fri 2 May, 2003 11:13 am
And the far right British National Party is now the official opposition in Burnley after making gains in the local elections.
It won seven new seats, including that of the deputy council leader, Labour's Andrew Tatchell, to take its tally to eight.
Labour retained control of the council with 23 seats while the Liberal Democrats were forced into third place with seven.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 3 May, 2003 06:37 pm
The vote aggregate for England is said to be 35% for the Conservatives, 31% for Labour and 30% for the Liberal Democrats.

For Labour, it is said to be the worst result since 1979. For the Libdems it's the best score they ever had.

In the last national elections the overall national score in the UK was 32% for the Conservatives, 41% for Labour, and 18% for the Libdems. Of course, turnout then was 59%, and in these local elections a mere 37%, I believe.

So Labour lost in first place to those who decided to stay home, in second place to the Libdems (who were fairly critical about the war), and only in third place to the Tories.

Then there's the small parties, the Scottish and Welsh nationalists doing badly but others doing well. The BNP gets a lot of attention - winning 11 council seats to get to a total of 16 - but the Greens is several times larger - winning 12 to get an overall 53 local councillors, getting their best electoral result since the European elections of 1989.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 3 May, 2003 06:38 pm
Quote:
Labour counts cost of collapse in Muslim vote
By Nigel Morris
03 May 2003


A collapse in Labour support among Muslim voters who were opposed to war in Iraq was blamed for the party's loss of its important Birmingham city council.

Labour lost 11 seats in the city, with the Liberal Democrats ousting Labour in many areas with large Muslim populations, such as Sparkbrook, Aston and Nechells. The pattern was repeated in other parts of the country, with the Liberal Democrats becoming the main beneficiary.

Mohammad Naseem, the chairman of Birmingham Central Mosque, said: "There were a great many people who demonstrated against the war in Iraq and not just from the minority or religious communities." Asked if anger amongst worshippers at the central mosque was widespread, he said: "Up to the last man, they were against the Labour Party policies over the war."

In Leicester, home to another substantial Muslim community, Labour lost eight seats and the Liberal Democrats emerged as the single largest party on the city council.

Patricia Hewitt, the Trade and Industry Secretary and MP for Leicester West, said: "Iraq is a Muslim country and local Muslims have been very, very concerned, and many of them very opposed to the war."

There were also signs of a backlash among Muslim voters in Luton, where Labour lost 13 seats, 11 of them to the Liberal Democrats.

Lord Rennard, the Liberal Democrat campaign chief, said: "In areas with ethnic minority populations, people were disappointed in the way Tony Blair went to war without United Nations approval. They remembered Charles Kennedy's message that we wanted a second resolution."

Labour also discovered hostility to the war in some areas with a strong left-of-centre, middle-class vote. The party lost 17 seats in Durham, with the Liberal Democrats winning power, and 10 in York, which was also won by the Liberal Democrats.

In Brighton & Hove, where there were boundary changes, Labour lost 20 seats and control of the council.

Andrew Cornwell, chairman of the Green Party, which picked up three seats in Brighton, said: "People saw that we were taking a principled stand against the war and Labour has lost voters as a result."

The Labour campaign was also undermined by the hostility of many party activists to the war in Iraq. It is believed to have been a factor in the party's failure to field candidates in a third of the seats contested in England. In many other areas, Labour struggled to get out its loyalists to campaign on the doorsteps.
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dlowan
 
  1  
Reply Sat 3 May, 2003 06:42 pm
fbaezer wrote:
The Scottish parliament was a big blow.

Labour lost 8 seats, the Scottish National Party lost 6. Conservatives and Liberal Democrats did not win or lose.
Greens won 6, Scottish Socialists won 5 and Independents won 4.


So - I take this to mean that disenchanted Labour voters are not turning to conservatives, but to more left wing parties?

How interesting!

I wonder, is this trend of breaking up the voting bloc new to Great Britain?
It has been happening in Oz for a while, leading to governments ruling with the support of non-government parties.
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ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Sat 3 May, 2003 06:45 pm
Luckily Mr. Bush has found a new best friend. Australia.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 3 May, 2003 06:59 pm
dlowan wrote:
So - I take this to mean that disenchanted Labour voters are not turning to conservatives, but to more left wing parties?

How interesting!

I wonder, is this trend of breaking up the voting bloc new to Great Britain?


In the elections for the Scottish parliament, they use a form of proportional representation, I believe. This makes it a lot easier, of course, for small parties to enter the game than it would ever be on the UK level.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 3 May, 2003 07:18 pm
Overall results Scottish parliament:

Labour 50 MSPs, -6
Scottish National Party (SNP) 27, -8
Conservatives 18, no change
Liberal Democrats 17, no change
Scottish Green Party 7, +6
Scottish Socialists (SSP) 6, +5
Independents 3, +2
Senior Citizens 1, +1

The Scottish Socialists did best in Glasgow, with 15% of the vote - ending in third place behind Labour (38%) and the Scottish Nationalists (17%). Conservatives, Libdems and Greens each got 7% of the vote there.

They are pretty radical - "The SSP has the ambition of [..] establishing an independent socialist republic that will stand up to the economic power of the multinationals and the political power of Washington, London and Brussels."

The Scottish Greens did best in Lothian (Edinburgh), where they polled 12%, coming in fourth after Labour (25%), SNP (16%) and Conservatives (15%).
Results per region
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dlowan
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 May, 2003 03:19 am
ehBeth wrote:
Luckily Mr. Bush has found a new best friend. Australia.


Let us not become too excited, Beth - he has found the Australiam Prime Minister - I would not draw too many conclusions about his status with the country as a whole.

Interestingly, it seems there may be a reward - a free trade agreement - at least until the usual US interest groups block or reverse it.
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dlowan
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 May, 2003 03:25 am
nimh wrote:
Overall results Scottish parliament:

Labour 50 MSPs, -6
Scottish National Party (SNP) 27, -8
Conservatives 18, no change
Liberal Democrats 17, no change
Scottish Green Party 7, +6
Scottish Socialists (SSP) 6, +5
Independents 3, +2
Senior Citizens 1, +1

The Scottish Socialists did best in Glasgow, with 15% of the vote - ending in third place behind Labour (38%) and the Scottish Nationalists (17%). Conservatives, Libdems and Greens each got 7% of the vote there.

They are pretty radical - "The SSP has the ambition of [..] establishing an independent socialist republic that will stand up to the economic power of the multinationals and the political power of Washington, London and Brussels."

The Scottish Greens did best in Lothian (Edinburgh), where they polled 12%, coming in fourth after Labour (25%), SNP (16%) and Conservatives (15%).
Results per region


Interesting figures, NIMH, although it is impossible, of course, to know how much of this is due to a normal swing against the party of a sitting government, how much due to non-war influences on the popularity of the Labour Party, and how much due to the war.

Polls - and I am unsure of their accuracy - in both Oz and the UK suggested that the populace fell in behind their governments once the war began, despite an apparent majority who disapproved until that point.

This looks like a real protest vote about SOMETHING.
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