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SCOTUS decision thoughts

 
 
Reply Tue 9 Jan, 2024 12:07 pm
I’m thinking it is much more likely than not that the SCOTUS will decide that Colorado and Maine (nor any other state) cannot exclude Trump from their ballots presently. It just makes sense (to me) that allowing each state to decide on a question like that is too disruptive and I think they will find a way to decide against Colorado on a very narrow point, even if just a procedural one.

But on the question of total immunity, I think they will vote 7 – 2 that a president does not have total immunity. And I am hoping that they will somehow indicate in the Colorado decision that if the question of whether a president can pardon him/herself comes to the court, it will decide that a president cannot do such a thing. A president able to do so will essentially be granting him/herself total immunity.

If it were allowed, the president can do whatever he/she wants, legal or illegal, that guarantees he/she keeps the office…and then issue a pardon.

That situation simply cannot exist in a democracy. It is a thing that can only exist in a dictatorship.

That might change Trump's mind about wanting re-election. He might prefer to have someone else...someone committed to pardoning him...elected.

Maybe someone like Mike Pence.


 
tsarstepan
 
  2  
Reply Tue 9 Jan, 2024 12:54 pm
@Frank Apisa,
Frank Apisa wrote:

Maybe someone like Mike Pence.


Ummm...? Mike Pence ain't running anymore. He doesn't need Mike Pence. Most of the other Rep candidates swore they would pardon Trump if they were elected.

But you're giving Trump way to much credit in the emotional intelligence department. He's a pyschopath. He won't intentionally step aside to allow someone else take the Republican name on the 2024 ballot.
Frank Apisa
 
  1  
Reply Tue 9 Jan, 2024 01:50 pm
@tsarstepan,
tsarstepan wrote:

Frank Apisa wrote:

Maybe someone like Mike Pence.


Ummm...? Mike Pence ain't running anymore. He doesn't need Mike Pence. Most of the other Rep candidates swore they would pardon Trump if they were elected.

But you're giving Trump way to much credit in the emotional intelligence department. He's a pyschopath. He won't intentionally step aside to allow someone else take the Republican name on the 2024 ballot.



You might consider the words "satire" and "sarcasm" when reading what I write, Steve. I tend in that direction.
0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  1  
Reply Thu 11 Jan, 2024 08:56 pm
All of 'em have promised to pardon him. The check is also in the mail.
0 Replies
 
engineer
 
  3  
Reply Fri 12 Jan, 2024 06:46 am
@Frank Apisa,
I think you are right on both cases and I agree with the 7-2 take as well. States banning Trump from the ballot might feel good, but if Republican electors decide to vote for Trump anyway, it doesn't mean much. I'm sure that whoever the Republicans put on the ballot in Maine and Colorado would just be a place holder to get Trump electors in place.
bobsal u1553115
 
  2  
Reply Fri 12 Jan, 2024 07:13 am
@engineer,
I think the individual states were making a feel good rulings, too. As long as it spoiled Loser Donnie's digestion, it was worth it.

I don't think there is anyway for the Loser to win with the diluted vote of a placesitter. The place sitter would have to carry a state and every GOP voter would have to be in on the gag.

engineer
 
  2  
Reply Fri 12 Jan, 2024 06:50 pm
@bobsal u1553115,
But that's not too hard to do. The placeholder says "vote for me and my electors will vote for Trump" and everyone would know. Even in states with faithless electors, the electors are free after the first ballot.
bobsal u1553115
 
  2  
Reply Fri 12 Jan, 2024 07:35 pm
@engineer,
That would require the place holder to actually win in enough states to beat Donnie the Loser. Where those who weren't in on the gag might well vote for Biden or vote No Label or write in someone else or not even vote. Who would that stand in be? Haley? Puddingfingers Whiteboots? If they're so dishonest, why in the world would they give away the Presidency? If they don't win it doesn't matter who the electors vote for, Biden won.


Who Are Electors And How Do They Get Picked?
December 14, 2020 5:01 AM ET
Domenico Montanaro - 2015

https://www.npr.org/sections/biden-transition-updates/2020/12/14/946080856/who-are-electors-and-how-do-they-get-picked

Another official move in America's sometimes-convoluted presidential election process takes place Monday as the electors of the Electoral College cast their votes.

It's one of the final steps in picking a president, but who are these electors and how do they get selected?

It begins and ends with loyalty — loyalty to state and national parties. That in part is how the candidates are all but guaranteed to have the electors' votes match the ballots cast by regular people in general election voting in each state.

Who are they and who picks them?

There are 538 electors, one for each U.S. senator and U.S. representative, plus three for Washington, D.C., which gets three electoral votes in the presidential election even though it has no voting representation in Congress.

The number of electors has changed through history as the number of elected members of Congress has changed with the country's expansion and population growth.

The establishment and role of the Electoral College is spelled out in Article II, Section 1, Clause 2 of the U.S. Constitution. It was modified by the 12th Amendment in 1804 and the 23rd in 1961.

How electors get picked varies by state, but in general state parties file slates of names for who the electors will be. They include people with ties to those state parties, like current and former party officials, state lawmakers and party activists. They're selected either at state party conventions or by party central committees. Each presidential candidate gets their own unique list of names on their slates.


Are they bound by the popular votes in those states?

In some places, yes; in others, no. Thirty-two states plus the District of Columbia have laws requiring electors to vote for the candidate the party has nominated, or they have to sign pledges.

Some states threaten electors with fines or even criminal penalties for going "faithless." In New Mexico, it's considered a fourth-degree felony; in South Carolina, they are subject to criminal action; Oklahoma holds out a fine of $1,000; it's $500 in North Carolina.


Many of these states also will throw out the vote of a rogue elector and replace them with someone who holds the line.

(so this has to keep fairly secret, secrecy is not the hallmark of a Trump production)


So is there a chance that President Trump could overturn the election results through the Electoral College?

Almost certainly not.


While there have been people who stray from the will of the voters before, historically 99% have shown fidelity to the state's popular vote results.

That's largely because of the process that takes place, with state parties selecting them. So there's already a natural vetting process.

How many faithless electors have there been?

Hawaii elector David Mulinix cast a vote for Bernie Sanders in the 2016 Electoral College. He was required by law to vote for Hillary Clinton.
Cathy Bussewitz/AP

In 2016, seven went against the popular vote in their states. That was the most since 1972 and the first time there were any faithless electors since 2004. Those seven were also more than all the faithless electors combined (four) dating back to 1976.

In the 2016 presidential election between Trump and Hillary Clinton — two candidates who were unpopular — two Texas electors strayed from Trump and selected Ohio Gov. John Kasich and ex-Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, a libertarian star.

Trump should have won 306 electoral votes but wound up with 304 instead.


(Trump got screwed by two votes from 'faithless electors'!!!!)

On the Democratic side, more electors abandoned Clinton. In Hawaii and Washington state, five electors cast ballots for Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, former Secretary of State Colin Powell and Faith Spotted Eagle, a Native American activist who was prominent in trying to block the Keystone XL pipeline.

Before then, there was just one faithless elector in 2004, one in 2000, one in 1988 and one in 1976.


It's an interesting speculation, but once again Trumps big mouth and leaky as hell organization has removed the element of surprise needed to pull of this trick. We're just waiting for Trump's expected dishonesty and he's never failed to show it. The fact that he'd have to come up with 10 to 30 different states' conflicting laws and procedures for selecting electors is a degree of difficulty that a man who can't even keep from convicting himself of his indicted charges by flapping his gums to reporters and X formerly known as Twitter, has no chance in hell of pulling off.
engineer
 
  3  
Reply Wed 17 Jan, 2024 07:52 am
@bobsal u1553115,
You are making assumptions that this would be a normal election and that previous results would be indicative of future performance. It would be very easy for electors in states where Trump is banned to say "vote Republican and I will then vote for Trump because we all know that is who we want." The 'R" on the ballot will say "a vote for me is a vote for Trump". The local party will vet electors strictly on their willingness to go with the plan. The electors will either vote for their candidate on the first ballot (when no one will receive the required 270 votes) and vote for Trump on subsequent ballots (which is completely legal) or vote for Trump on the first ballot and say to hell with any local penalties. There are state laws around faithless electors, but federally they are completely in the clear. I'm sure someone will pick up the fine for them and any jail time would be made up on the conservative lecture circuit.
bobsal u1553115
 
  1  
Reply Thu 18 Jan, 2024 08:16 am
@engineer,
And you assume it won't. It hasn't so far.
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