UK: Public backing for war falls

By Anthony King

Public backing for the war against Iraq has fallen for the first time since the conflict began, according to the latest YouGov survey for The Telegraph.

The decline in popular support for the action - from 59 to 54 per cent - underlines a widespread sense that the war is nothing like people felt they were led to expect.

It was meant to be marked by cheering crowds and thousands of Iraqi soldiers eager to surrender. It is turning out to be a war of ambushes, suicide bombers and continual enemy harassment.

It was also meant to be a short war and, less than a fortnight ago, 15 per cent thought it would be over within days or even hours. As the figures in the chart indicate, no one thinks that now.

Just a week ago an overwhelming 84 per cent thought the war was going "very" or "fairly" well for the coalition forces. That figure has now fallen to 65 per cent. The proportion thinking the war is going badly has nearly trebled.

Even more telling is the gap between the imagined war of a few weeks ago and the actual war. YouGov showed its respondents a list of "predictions people made before the war about what would happen once fighting started" and asked if they thought each prediction had proved accurate or not.

The figures in the section headed "predictions and reality" speak for themselves. Large majorities believe that what they were told would happen before the start of hostilities has not happened.

Roughly half of those questioned, 48 per cent, think the Anglo-American forces have succeeded in securing Iraq's main oil fields and a somewhat larger proportion, 53 per cent, believe the use of "smart" weapons has minimised civilian casualties.

However, the chart as a whole paints a picture of a people who feel that, deliberately or otherwise, they have been misled. Many are aware that there have not been widespread uprisings against Saddam Hussein and that Iraqi resistance to the coalition forces has failed to crumble.

The notion that Britain's forces would have little difficulty in taking control of southern Iraq, including Basra, is also dismissed.

Similarly, few believe that American and British forces have been greeted as liberators by the Iraqi people or that large parts of the Iraqi army have surrendered. Most do not think the British and Americans have succeeded in bringing in large amounts of humanitarian aid. Perhaps worst of all, most people seem clear that the Anglo-American coalition has utterly failed to win its "hearts and minds" campaign.

People were asked which of several statements about sentiment in Iraq they thought was probably nearest the truth. Few Britons, 16 per cent, believe the Anglo-American forces are welcome in Iraq.

A large majority, 78 per cent, adhere to the gloomy view that "most Iraqis wish to see Saddam removed from power but nevertheless regard the coalition forces as enemy invaders".

Under the circumstances, it is a tribute to allied spokesmen's candour that trust in the British and American governments to tell the truth, although never great, has scarcely diminished.

Ten days ago 47 per cent trusted the Government to tell the truth during the war. The corresponding figure now is 49 per cent.

The proportion trusting the American Government was lower 10 days ago at 36 per cent. It is still lower at 34 per cent but has changed little.

Despite recent setbacks, delays and the signs of declining support for war, however, Robin Cook's suggestion in a newspaper article yesterday - which he later withdrew - that Britain should wash its hands of the conflict receives little support.

Only 26 per cent believe Britain should withdraw from its coalition with America and withdraw its troops from Iraq.

YouGov elicited the opinions of 1,004 adults on line yesterday. The data has been weighted to conform to the demographic profile of British adults as a whole.

• Anthony King is Professor of Government at Essex University