Massachusetts makes it to second base!

Massachusetts is seeing an uptick in positive covid tests results. That's not good.

I suspect we might be seeing a downgrade, I am not sure if restaurants are going to remain open for indoor seating.

No one is admitting yet, but schools aren't opening in September.

2 Replies

@maxdancona,

maxdancona wrote:

Massachusetts is seeing an uptick in positive covid tests results. That's not good.

I suspect we might be seeing a downgrade, I am not sure if restaurants are going to remain open for indoor seating.

No one is admitting yet, but schools aren't opening in September.

Huh? I get updates daily on positive covid and death rates in MA and I have NOT seen an uptick. Not sure where you are getting your results. If anything they have been stable or falling.

This is from yesterday:

"Massachusetts health officials on Wednesday reported 30 more people have died from the coronavirus and 264 new cases as the statewide positive test rate remained low.

The 30 new coronavirus deaths bring the state’s COVID-19 death toll to 8,243, the state Department of Public Health announced. The three-day average of coronavirus daily deaths has dropped from 161 at the start of May to 16 now.

The state has logged 110,602 cases of the highly contagious disease, an increase of 162 confirmed cases since Tuesday and 102 probable cases. Of the 110,602 total cases, at least 94,347 people have recovered.

Coronavirus hospitalizations went up by 41 patients, bringing the state’s COVID-19 hospitalization total to 662. Overall, the statewide hospitalization total has declined by 2,900 since May 5."\

https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/07/08/coronavirus-deaths-in-massachusetts-up-30-cases-rise-264/

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@maxdancona,

maxdancona wrote:

No one is admitting yet, but schools aren't opening in September.

Really? After all the evidence of how children rarely get covid and rarely transmit it. After studies from other countries where their children went back to school and there had been no resulting increases in covid rates? That would be stupid.

Even Governor Baker loosened up many of the requirements he initially set in place for schools.

We just had a meeting with my daughter's school on what they are doing for September to accommodate the seating, etc. They are a go as of now.

Now of course if anything should go downhill that would be a different story, but expectations are if things continue the way they have - plans will be all kids in school.

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@Linkat,

The problem isn't kids as victims. The problem is kids as carriers, particularly in high school.

My understanding is that schools will only reopen if we see that the virus is generally under control in the surrounding community. If there is an uptick... then forget it.

We will see if I am right in September.

(I heard about the uptick on NPR).

1 Reply

@Linkat,

Interesting article by an epidemiologist making the case to open schools.

https://www.vox.com/2020/7/9/21318560/covid-19-coronavirus-us-testing-children-schools-reopening-questions

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@engineer,

Yes there was a very similar finding by the American Academy of Pediatrics - which normally takes a conservative approach with children. And they are pushing for children to go back to school because of the all negatives for the children not to go back. That is actually what I was basing my comments on.

Personally, having a child that deals with extreme anxiety - missing school was very stressful and difficult for her even though her school was actually very good with teaching remotely - I can see the impact it has had on her; in part this is why I am so glad she can practice with her team again - kids need this socialization and it really hits many of them hard.

There was also a petition going around here in MA signed by parents and teachers - not sure if that help impact the changes the governor did or not. But it did include alot of these facts that are in the article you provided as well as some of the info from the AAP.

Quote from the AAP "...the academy’s guidelines strongly recommend that students be “physically present in school” as much as possible, and emphasize that there are major health, social and educational risks to keeping children at home...."

here is the full article/interview with the AAP
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/30/us/coronavirus-schools-reopening-guidelines-aap.html

0 Replies

@maxdancona,

maxdancona wrote:

The problem isn't kids as victims. The problem is kids as carriers, particularly in high school.

My understanding is that schools will only reopen if we see that the virus is generally under control in the surrounding community. If there is an uptick... then forget it.

We will see if I am right in September.

(I heard about the uptick on NPR).

That is the whole thing -- kids are not carriers. You need to read through the entire article. Studies from several other countries showed no uptick after their children went to school.

From the article:

"Will my kids bring Covid-19 home to our family?
For most parents, the next question after the safety of their kids will be their own safety and that of loved ones in the house. Even if the kids are all right, could they bring the coronavirus home?

Here, again, the data appears reassuring. One large review of over 700 scientific publications found that children accounted for only a small fraction of Covid-19 cases, and that they were rarely the first case in a cluster of infections in a household. For example, in China, only 5 percent of household clusters were found to have a child as the index case. Similarly, in Switzerland and Holland, children accounted for only 8 percent of household transmission clusters."

I think the big thing is - is it worth the small risk that you child could bring home covid? Pretty much every parent would risk it. It is so small and the impact to the children not going is so much worse.

From AAP -
"What we have seen so far in the literature — and anecdotally, as well — is that kids really do seem to be both less likely to catch the infection and less likely to spread the infection. It seems to be even more true for younger kids, under 10 or under 12. And older kids seem to play less of a role than adults.

Here in Colorado, I’ve been following our state health department website very closely. They update data every day and include the outbreaks in the state they are investigating. As you can imagine, there are lots and lots in long-term care facilities and skilled nursing homes, some in restaurants and grocery stores. There have been a total of four in child care centers, and we do have a lot of child care centers open. In almost every one of those cases, transmission was between two adults. The kids in the centers are not spreading Covid-19. I’m hearing the same thing from other states, as well."

Well sounds like NPR is the only one saying there is an uptick.

1 Reply

@engineer,

It find it amusing to see Liberals agree with Betsy DeVos.

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@Linkat,

I did read the article. I am skeptical (and I have a public health expert in my family that is helping me stay informed).

There are quite a few scientists who point out that there is far from being enough data to make conclusions. Children aren't being tested a the rate adults are tested, and there isn't consistent data from schools that have been controlled for other social distancing measures, etc.

1 Reply

If you are pissed off from those pictures of 19 year olds celebrating Spring Break on crowded beaches, but want 17 year olds to spend 6 hours a day in a crowded building.

... explain to me why this isn't silly?

1 Reply

@maxdancona,

maxdancona wrote:

I did read the article. I am skeptical (and I have a public health expert in my family that is helping me stay informed).

There are quite a few scientists who point out that there is far from being enough data to make conclusions. Children aren't being tested a the rate adults are tested, and there isn't consistent data from schools that have been controlled for other social distancing measures, etc.

For children's health - I will respect AAP - and then tend to be conservative in regards to children's health.

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@maxdancona,

maxdancona wrote:

If you are pissed off from those pictures of 19 year olds celebrating Spring Break on crowded beaches, but want 17 year olds to spend 6 hours a day in a crowded building.

... explain to me why this isn't silly?

Because they are completely different situations - where one is a free for all reckless partying and one is strict guidelines for learning purposes.

Spring breakers are not wearing masks; spring breakers are not staying in the same classroom and being prevented from touching and being close together.

There are parameters being put in place in the schools to minimize this. Yes, there are risks, but they are minimal especially with the restrictions put in place. If you have a child - you realize that the benefits far outweigh the risks.

The AAP is not supporting spring break, but they are supporting in class teaching due to "we’re seeing studies documenting this. Kids being home led to increases in behavioral health problems. There were reports of increased rates of abuse." There is lots of data of how much the kids are missing academically which is huge, but even leaving that behind - there are others such as "Students are also expected to need a greatly increased level of social and emotional support from counselors and therapists, in part because of the impact of spending months in social isolation, often while families experienced job loss, economic hardship and health distress."

Curious if you have kids in school? To be honest I do not know one parent who does not support their kids going to school in person.

Actually I do know one - but their child is a 19 - he is in college and his will be attending college virtually. But that is because he is organ donation receiptant and thus for health reasons cannot take a chance.

But I do think this says it best....

"From our perspective as pediatricians, the downsides of having kids at home versus in school are outweighed by the small incremental gain you would get from having kids six feet apart as opposed to five, four or three. When you add into that other mitigation measures like mask wearing, particularly for older kids, and frequent hand washing, you can bring the risk down.

I do think it’s a balance. I’m not going to come out here and say on June 30 that everything is going to be perfect in the coming school year. There will be cases of Covid-19 in schools even where they make their best efforts. But we have to balance that with the overall health of children."

It really depends on your perspective..what you think is more important - like all things in life there is risk vs reward. In this case, I feel along with AAP and this epidemiologist (which I think know a little more overall on this area) it is worth the small risk than the impact it is having on our children. I guess I just put children above my own chance of catching this.

1 Reply

@Linkat,

Quote:

Because they are completely different situations - where one is a free for all reckless partying and one is strict guidelines for learning purposes.

Spring breakers are not wearing masks; spring breakers are not staying in the same classroom and being prevented from touching and being close together.

There are parameters being put in place in the schools to minimize this. Yes, there are risks, but they are minimal especially with the restrictions put in place. If you have a child - you realize that the benefits far outweigh the risks.

I get what you are saying. I am still skeptical. The virus doesn't care if it is a worthy activity or not.

I do not believe it is possible to maintain social distancing, mask wearing or touching in an American high school. I was in high school, I taught high school, I now have a daughter in high school. I do not believe that it is possible for a high school to operate for any significant amount of time with precautions. High schools can't even get teens to stop drinking, or give up their phones, or use condoms, or stop using pot. Does Brenda really wear a mask when she is making out with Johnny after history class?

There is an argument that the benefits outweigh the risks. I don't buy the arguments that the risks aren't significant. We are talking about a large group of human beings stuck inside in a relatively small space for 6 hours a day.

I still predict that schools will not be open in any meaningful way this fall. We will see if I am correct.

1 Reply

@maxdancona,

I am in part living in my personal bubble on the high school front.

My daughter is in a small private high school and everyone knows each other - there are 17 kids in her graduating class. So yes, in her situation this can be done and done well.

Going back to my high school with a graduating class of just under 1,200 and a place known for having some trouble there - yeah I could see it being difficult. But I see it as difficult especially for these schools to do online learning.

I guess it depends on what you are trying to accomplish and what you feel is more important. Kids dropping out of high school; not being engaged in the learning; failing or the 2% or so chance of getting covid. For the risks - we can look to what has happened in other countries (which we know) and see what the risks are. I would be curious to know though how they handled their school day...I do not think the articles specified that - did they wear masks? Did they limit contact; distance; etc?

There is not a 100% correct answer, but either way we could be in for a disaster. I just have more confidence in the AAP as they make recommendations based on what is best for children.

1 Reply

@Linkat,

My daughter is at Cambridge Rindge and Latin. I don't see how they keep their students and faculty from catching the virus.

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I have my own personal public health expert Wink

, but what he is saying is being said by others.

Quote:

“We all want our kids back in schools,” said Jha, who is a father of three children. “The issue isn’t, ‘Do you want kids back in schools?’ The question is, ‘Are we ready to have schools open and stay open throughout the entire fall?’

“There are two things that matter: the size of the outbreak in the community… and [whether] your school [is] ready,” Jha said. “Do you have the ventilation? Do you have the spacing? Do you have the testing? If you don’t have all that … you can say ‘I want schools open’ all you want: You’re not going to be able to keep them open because teachers are going to get sick, staff are going to get sick, kids are going to get sick.”

https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2020/07/09/harvard-doctor-ashish-jha-schools-reopening-closed-by-columbus-day

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Just for the record (and if farmerman is reading, he might appreciate it).

My personal public health expert is telling me that my attitude on masks is mostly crap. He admits that there is no conclusive science (point Max), but then tells me that there is enough circumstantial evidence and that I should shut up and wear a mask.

My mind is being changed.

1 Reply

@maxdancona,

i always fall back on the surgeon argument...

why have surgeons been wearing masks while they operate since the 1930's?

Quote:

The purpose of face masks is thought to be two-fold: to prevent the passage of germs
from the surgeon's nose and mouth into the patient's wound and to protect the surgeon's
face from sprays and splashes from the patient. Face masks are thought to make wound
infections after surgery less likely.

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if surgeons can wear masks for long stretches of time and do an incredibly difficult job, surely
the public can suck it up and put them on while they're out in public for thirty minutes...

1 Reply

@Region Philbis,

Region Philbis wrote:

if surgeons can wear masks for long stretches of time and do an incredibly difficult job, surely
the public can suck it up and put them on while they're out in public for thirty minutes...

I gave in on the argument. Now you are just piling on. (That being.saidmthere are a lot of things surgeons do that I don't.
but why should we argue when I have already conceded the point)

The topic at hand is reopening schools.

1 Reply

Massachusetts makes it to second base!

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