Economic re-opening: frying pan to fryer

Reply Sat 16 May, 2020 07:33 am
As a fire burns down to coals, you rake the coals together to concentrate the heat/energy and reignite the fire.

Economic re-opening is like raking together the coals of the COVID19 epidemic/pandemic 'fire,'

How long will it take for the re-ignition to show up in the infection and mortality rates? There is a two week gestation period, which is the original reason we were told to stay at home for two weeks to ensure we did not have the infection.

That means that whatever viral transmission occurs after economic re-opening changes behaviors, those infection will take at least two weeks to show up in statistics, assuming they are reported at all by people who do not feel the need to get tested or seek care.

How long is this pandemic going to continue and how much is it going to mutate and change as it circulates? People like to wax optimistic that they are healthy and thus will come out of an infection stronger and more immune than before, but some sources report long-term effects, such as lung scarring.

Are economic re-opening measures a crutch we are using to avoid the more difficult challenge of adapting the economy to stay-at-home culture required by pandemic threats?

It is disturbing to think of the economy as a system for baiting victims back into the fire of pandemic disease. And it's not just pandemic disease that they are exposed to, as evidenced by the significant drop in hospital utilization during these last few months. People are healthier because they have been staying at home, but they are desperate to sacrifice their relative health and safety staying home to go out and play their hand in the economy that they are too dependent on.

How much does the infection/mortality rate have to rise again before we put more effort into adapting the economy so people don't feel so much need to go out and exchange pathogens? Mask use is not that effective and possibly causes more risk than it averts. We need to figure out ways to shop and go out less frequently and otherwise maintain patterns of minimal interaction and exposure while still getting and producing the supplies we need, and having income opportunities despite limiting economic activity to only what's essential and/or safe because it is online/remote/etc.
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mark noble
Reply Tue 19 May, 2020 01:10 pm
Did you view the Dr. Andrew Kaufman Link, I dropped on this site?

Have a Lovely Day
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