@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:
Obviously what I am writing is my speculation... I am not going to argue it too much (we will soon see if I am correct).
I think you're more interested in saying what you want to happen in the form of a prediction than you are interested in actually discussing what you think may or will happen and why.
Quote:1. A reelection campaign is often seen as a referendum on the incumbent. Because Trump is such a polarizing figure, and because he has had such a tumultuous term, this will be especially true of this election. I think the Democratic nominee is irrelevant.
That can only happen for voters who are neutral toward the Democrat alternative. I think many people are soured on the Democrats to the point that they wouldn't trust them to do what they expect them to do if they win the election. All they can really trust them to do is cooperate and facilitate in all the ways that they do once they are in control of government. For people who trust Democrat ideology/planning, that is no problem but for people who question it, it is something to avoid.
Quote:2. Obama is still seen positively by two thirds of Americans. However, people are going to be focused on the past 4 years. Who is thinking about 2015 now?
Obama (and Michelle) are great people and politicians in lots of ways, but they got co-opted by the Democratic party for use as yes-men for economic policies that were dictated beyond their influence.
Think about it: we got cash4clunkers and then pedicabs at the 2012 Democrat convention, but by 2016 all the economic innovations were stifled because the economic stimulus worked and no one wants to innovate when it means risking revenue generated by maintaining the status quo.
That is why the Democratic party is fundamentally conservative by means of selling hope of change. If you vote for them, they will give you change with a big price tag, and the sales will stimulate the victory of the status quo. Call it conservatism-by-selling-progress, but it's ultimately not that different from conservatism by selling anything else.
Quote:3. Lots of middle Americans who voted for Trump will swing to Biden. Anyone who is upset with Trump's handling of the Corona virus, farmers or blue collar workers who were hurt by his trade war will swing to Biden. As will anyone who is upset with the Georgia scandal, or upset with his attacks on women, or his twitter posts....
I think you underestimate the willingness of people to suffer economically for principle. You could bring them to their knees by escalating the economic suffering to the point of desperation, but they would blame progressives for the torture and not the incumbent.
The only way you could them to vote Democrat is by giving them a plan that they really believed in, but you'd also have to convince them that the plan wouldn't change once they voted it in, and I don't think there are many who would trust the Democrats to keep their word, even if they liked their plan.
People like the Republican party because they like the philosophy that liberty and not government can work for the common good. Democrats try to block the progress of liberty with regulations instead of doing what they should, i.e. facilitating legitimate choices and outlawing things that should be outlawed instead of legalized and taxed.
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