Bayes' formula

Only the Illuminati know and they ain't talking.

Call any young just out of school broker. You'll get fresh out of the book education and meet a possible future colleague: education and networking in one phone call.

Here's a good explanation with an example that you can modify:
http colon slash slash betterexplained dot com slash articles slash an-intuitive-and-short-explanation-of-bayes-theorem slash

Change "cancer" to "economy outperforms."
Change "no cancer" to "economy underperforms."
Change "test positive" to "stock goes up."
Change "test negative" to "stock goes down."

Yes, markr is correct.

For anyone reading... Bayes' theorem is pretty interesting and has some real world consequences. We use it in computer science quite a bit for things like spam filtering and predicting what articles make it to your Facebook feed.

It also has some important consequences when it comes social issues... such as drug testing.