The US and world economy in 2003

Worse and then worser that is what I think

JD, Didn't your English teacher tell you never to use "worser?" c.i.

Yes but sometimes I rebel - and then sometimes worse is worser in my pea brain it all make sense if you know what I mean.

I'll second worser. All the leading economic indicators are down. There's war talk, which always costs a lot. The Governors Association site talks about raising taxes and slashing services. In order to streamline companies and cut losses, more and more companies are laying off personnel. This cuts the consumer levels, goods and services. adds to the unemployed. More and more people are joining the healthcare disadvantaged (how's that one?) group. And, the thing is, we have yet to see a plan or budget discussed. When we have just finished three straight years of a downward spiral, it would take an inheritance from a very rich uncle to bail us out.

And for me, it's probably natural as a senior citizen to look at things in a slightly jaundiced way. But I have spent the week-end with younger people, including my son and my son-in-law, who each work in that rarified money atmosphere. And they are not sanguine about the next few years.

We are connected to a worldwide economy, and I am afraid of a domino effect.

I voted "Worse" too, but I lean toward "More of the Same", really. I don't expect thrilling recovery. I would expect a relatively flat first and second quarter at least for 2003, with any sustained, substantial recovery unlikely sooner than the third or fourth quarters. While there is potential for major shock to the Global Economy, I believe that not highly likely. Any substantial easing of Mid East and/or North Asian Tensions will have tremendous Global Economic impact, but even were they to occur early in the year, their effect would be at best minimal by year-end. It took us a while to get into this mess, and it will be a while longer before we are out of it.


timber.

JD and mamajuana, What's so interesting about both your opinions is that most of the financial pundits on the media are saying that the economy in the US will improve in 2003. These are supposed to be the 'experts.' But the experts were saying that 2002 would be a good year too! mamajuana, Your slight jaundice about raising taxes, huge layoffs, and the war with Iraq are all important indicators of what to anticipate for our future economy. In this regard, I think (IMHO) that both of you have the general right idea. The only points I would like to make are these: 1) Our economy is plugging along with our unemployment at less than six percent, 2) inflation is pretty much controlled, 3) the new regulations requiring the CEO and CFO to sign off on their financial statements should provide for a more 'reliable' report to investors, 4) although wars may effect the stock market immediately after war is declared, but the market recovers within a few months, and 5) Bush is talking about speeding up the tax cuts. Still think our economy will be "worser?" c.i.

c.i. I have heard that ugly worser word deflation but cannot remember where. I was in the last day or two. One thing I am bothered about is that Congress has to raise the limit on the National Debt by April or the US will be in default and the House has not even marked it up yet. That does not leave much time.

I think it will be worse. I'm not quite sure why, but there seems to be a lot of talk about it and it doesn't look good.

More of the same.

War is the "all bets are off" situation. Same for a terror attack (on the US) etc.

The USA situation in the markets of 2003 will be similar to those of 2002.

Little improvement.

Wait till 2010!

New Haven, That's also my take on the economy, but IMHO that our economy and the world's will improve before 2010. Let's hope that the final "stimulus" package that the dems and GOP are talking about will take effect on 1/1/2003. c.i.

With the Iraq war nearing it's end, we must hope that our government concentrates more on our economy. They've been quite silent; makes us wonder if they are capable of handling more than one crisis at a time? c.i.

Bush initially asked for $700 billion in tax cuts, but the congress cut that in half. It seems Bush is now asking for $500 billion in tax cuts, while the majority of Americans say tax cuts at this time is the wrong thing to do. I don't think Bush listens too well. c.i.