@vresv,
The probability is 1 - it will eventually fail, although it may take hundreds or thousands of years. I suspect you're interested in something like Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF). If that's the case, you'll need failure rate data for the components of the system.
The probability of 1/10 that you came up with is relevant if the question is:
Given 10 clusters with equal failure rates, what is the probability that
when a cluster failure occurs, it is this specific cluster that fails?