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Terror or insurgency in Uzbekistan, US Ally?

 
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 May, 2005 09:35 am
The US is changing course now - see below - which is encouraging. But it's doing so ever so tentatively ... an indictment of Karimov's terror regime it's hardly. In fact, the US spokesman goes out of his way to proclaim it's got nothing to do with any indictment of the Andijan massacre.

Also, no suspension of the annual $10 million aid has yet been announced - and the US still refuses to join the UK, France, the EU and the UN in their call for an international inquiry.

Quote:
US cuts back Uzbek military links

Nick Paton Walsh in Moscow
Saturday May 21, 2005
The Guardian

The Pentagon has said it plans to scale back its military presence in Uzbekistan after government troops reportedly shot dead hundreds of civilians last Friday.

The US has an airbase in the southern town of Khanabad, known as K-2 or Camp Stronghold Freedom, originally created to supply the invasion of Afghanistan. Analysts have said the need for the base has led Washington to declare Uzbekistan an ally in the "war on terror" and to supply President Islam Karimov's regime with hundreds of millions of dollars in aid.

But on Thursday night, General John Abizaid, the head of US central command, told a small group of reporters that American operations at the base would continue, "although at a somewhat limited scale". He said the scale-back was as a result of the recent "violence". It was not meant to send a "political statement" of disapproval, but "to deal with a potential change in the security situation".

He said that although the violence "happened ... quite a way away", the Pentagon reassesses its "tactics, techniques and procedures to reduce [their] levels of vulnerability". [..]

Washington still funds the Uzbek security forces, giving them $10m (£5.5m) in aid last year, despite admitting that they "use torture as a routine investigation technique".

The move came as Mr Karimov told the UN secretary general, Kofi Annan, that he would not permit an international inquiry into the massacre. Yesterday the EU joined the UN, Britain and France in calling for an investigation. The US has asked for journalists and aid workers to be admitted, but has yet to call for such an inquiry.
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Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 May, 2005 09:38 am
Unfortunately, if we are to judge by the examples of history (in consideration of the policies of many nations, and not just the United States), having heavily invested in the current regime in the past, the effect of an American withdrawl are likely to be an even heavier-handed approach by the Uzbek government, who will both resent American hypocrisy, and blame "rebels" for the loss of their opportunties for grafting . . .
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 May, 2005 09:38 am
For anyone checking in to this page to see what's new, don't forget to flip back a page and read this: Where torture and terror rule, a striking account from the biographer of Tamarlane about his recent travels in Uzbekistan and what he found - something that sounds like a mix between the Soviet Union and junta-era Argentine.
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ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 May, 2005 09:40 am
Well, it is difficult to speak against those one is funding.

Confused
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 May, 2005 03:56 pm
Jonathan Freedland speaks my mind:

Quote:
He's our sonofabitch

The west's support for the Uzbek regime exposes its destructive reliance on despots and tyrants

Jonathan Freedland
Wednesday May 18, 2005
The Guardian

Think of it as the sonofabitch school of foreign policy. Legend has it that when Franklin D Roosevelt was confronted with the multiple cruelties of his ally, the Nicaraguan dictator Anastasio Somoza, he replied: "He may be a sonofabitch, but he's our sonofabitch."

More than 60 years on, that serves as a pretty good expression of American, and therefore British, attitudes to Islam Karimov, the tyrant of Tashkent who has ruled the central Asian republic of Uzbekistan since the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991.

That he is a sonofabitch is beyond dispute. Like so many despots before him, Karimov has looked to medieval times for ever more brutal methods of oppression. Hence the return of the cauldron, boiling alive two of his critics in 2002. Uzbekistan holds up to 6,000 political prisoners; independent economic activity has been crushed; religious practice is severely restricted; there is no free press; and the internet is censored. On December 26, when the world was marvelling at Ukraine's orange revolution, Karimov was hosting an election that was not nearly as close - he had banned all the opposition parties.

But, hey, what's a little human rights violation among friends? And Karimov has certainly been our friend. Shortly after 9/11, he allowed the US to locate an airbase at Khanabad - a helpful contribution to the upcoming war against Afghanistan. Since then he has been happy to act as a reliable protector of central Asian oil and gas supplies, much coveted by a US eager to reduce its reliance on the Gulf states. And he has gladly let Uzbekistan be used for what is euphemistically known as "rendition", the practice of exporting terror suspects to countries less squeamish about torture than Britain or the US. This was the matter over which the heroic Craig Murray, the former UK ambassador to Tashkent, fell out with his employers: he argued that Britain was "selling its soul" by using information gathered under such heinous circumstances.

Brushing Murray's qualms to one side, London and Washington remained grateful to Karimov. A procession of top Bush administration officials trekked to Tashkent to thank the dictator for his services. Donald Rumsfeld, not content with that 1983 photo of himself shaking hands with Saddam Hussein, praised Karimov for his "wonderful cooperation", while George Bush's former Treasury secretary, Paul O'Neill, admired the autocrat's "very keen intellect and deep passion" for improving the lives of ordinary Uzbeks.

And perhaps this egregious example of sonofabitchism would have remained all but unnoticed had it not been for the past few days. For having ugly friends can only work if people don't look at your companion too closely - and this week the world saw Karimov in action. When opponents took to the streets last Friday, the dictator ordered his troops to open fire. Uzbek official figures speak of 169 dead; human rights groups estimate the toll at between 500 and 750 - most of them unarmed.

When crowds demonstrated in Lebanon, Ukraine and Georgia, the Americans welcomed it as "people power". But the brave stand in Uzbekistan brought a different response. Washington called for "restraint" from both sides, as if the unarmed civilians were just as guilty as those shooting at them. In the past couple of days, the tune has changed slightly. Now the state department wants Tashkent to "institute real reforms" and address its "human rights problems". It is at least possible that Washington may soon decide Karimov has become an embarrassment and that he should be replaced by a new, friendlier face - but one just as reliable. Less of a sonofabitch, but still ours.

Sonofabitchism has always been an awkward business, even in Roosevelt's day; it hardly squares with America's image of itself as a beacon in a dark world. But the contradiction - some would call it hypocrisy - is all the greater now. For this is the Bush era, and the Bush doctrine is all about spreading democracy and "the untamed fire of freedom" to the furthest corner of the globe. If that's the rhetoric, then it's hard to reconcile with a reality that involves funneling cash to a man who boils his enemies.

Maybe Bush should just break with the past and fight his war for democracy with pure, democratic means. But that would frighten him. Allow elections in countries now deemed reliable - say Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Morocco - and who knows what havoc might be unleashed? Washington fears it would lose its friends, only to see them replaced by the enemy itself: radical Islamists, the force most likely to win democratic contests in large swaths of the Arab world.

That is the conundrum. And yet the case that America, and Britain for that matter, should not only talk the democratic talk but walk the democratic walk is powerful - and not only in pure, idealistic terms. This argument has realpolitik on its side, too.

First, despots make bad allies - who all too often become adversaries. Let us recall two men who once played the role of America's sonofabitch. In the 80s, the US backed Saddam against Iran and Osama bin Laden against the Soviets. The US gave those men the guns that would eventually be turned on itself.

Second, pragmatic pacts with the devil don't work. For one thing, by repressing their peoples, tyrannies foment, not prevent, terrorism. But such deals in the name of democracy also taint the very cause they are meant to serve. Thus liberal reformers across the Middle East now struggle to make their case to Arab publics who have grown suspicious that "democracy" means US occupation, a sell-off of oil and Abu Ghraib.

Third, if democracy really is the panacea the Bush doctrine insists it is, then shouldn't it be trusted to work its magic? Put another way, surely a government that truly represented its people would bring the freedom and stability Washington yearns for - regardless of its political complexion?

Perhaps most reassuring to policymakers would be this fact. Even Middle Eastern democrats themselves are not calling for an overnight revolution; they know that in their stifled societies the only public sphere that exists, besides the state, is the mosque. It is for that reason that if elections were held tomorrow in, say, Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood would take power.

But if the west made the vast financial and military aid it already gives to these regimes conditional on perhaps a three-year programme of gradual liberalisation - lifting emergency laws, allowing proper funding of political parties - then soon some space would open up, terrain occupied neither by the despots nor the mullahs. Different parties and forces could start organising for a future ballot in which they had a decent shot at success.

That surely would be more logically consistent than the current, contradictory reliance on tyrants to advance the cause of freedom. And it might have a chance of working in practice - even in a place as benighted as Uzbekistan.


http://www.multicultureelplein.nl/assets/mcplein/nieuws/images/guardian1a.jpg
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dlowan
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 May, 2005 10:22 pm
Goodness - that is a very interesting analysis, Nimh.

I guess so much for the "we won't support any more ruthless killers for purposes of real-politik" declarations coming from the US recently, eh?
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Lash
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 May, 2005 10:33 pm
The writer destroys his own thesis.

With--
Third, if democracy really is the panacea the Bush doctrine insists it is, then shouldn't it be trusted to work its magic? Put another way, surely a government that truly represented its people would bring the freedom and stability Washington yearns for - regardless of its political complexion?
----

Bush spoke his mind about Karimov. What more does the writer expect him to do... shouldn't democracy be trusted to work it's own magic...?

What is Bush expected to do?
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 22 May, 2005 01:36 am
Quote:
Time Bomb

A crisis in faraway Uzbekistan reverberates around the world. Could it spark a renewed cold war?
With Eve Conant in Washington, Nadya Titova in Moscow and Owen Matthews in Istanbul
Source
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sun 22 May, 2005 12:07 pm
Lash wrote:
The writer destroys his own thesis.

[..] Bush spoke his mind about Karimov. What more does the writer expect him to do... shouldn't democracy be trusted to work it's own magic...?

What is Bush expected to do?


I can think of a few things.

1) Suspend the annual $10 million of US aid to Karimov's regime, immediately.

2) Announce that the US will no longer militarily co-operate with a regime that represents the very totalitarianism it strives to eliminate. Ergo, announce that the American military basis will be closed altogether - and that it is "meant to send a political statement".

A lot of indirect investment is connected with it, and it symbolises a sense of strategic safety for Karimov. Taking it away will be a powerful pressure tool. And the basis can probably be moved to Kyrgiszstan, if Karimov doesnt give.

3) Suspend the apparent practice of sending terror suspects to Uzbekistan to be interrogated there (according to Karimov standards, one would assume). Continuing it would make one indebted to the very fellow you want out.

4) Join the UK's Jack Straw and unambivalently "totally condemn" what is the biggest state-sponsored massacre since Tien an Men Square. More specifically, join France, the EU and the UN in their call for an international inquest in the Andijan massacre.

You said this is a job for the UN - but the UN relies on its powerful members to bolster the clout to push something like this through. The EU has given its voice - but the US as of yesterday had refused to.

I think that probably has a lot to do with why Karimov blithely dismissed the demand so far. He can afford to rebuff the EU as long as he know the US wont join up with it. As long as thats the case, Karimov is well entitled to think "this too, shall pass".

Now there's a wishlist for an American citizen passionate about democracy like you. I would appeal to all Americans on this board to write a letter to their Congressman to ask for exactly such or equivalent action. Without a sense that their voters think its important, nothing much is likely to move.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sun 22 May, 2005 12:26 pm
And, Lash, democracy can only "be trusted to work it's own magic" once it actually exists, of course.

Thats what the author references: going on his own proclaimed beliefs, Bush should not be scared of what might happen when democracy does emerge.

To get democracy into place in the first place, when brutal dictators are in the way, might first require some help from the outside, on the other hand.

I wouldnt think that'd be something I'd need to point out to a proponent of the war against Iraq! I mean, according to your logic here, we could also just have left Saddam in place and wait for democracy to "work its own magic"?

If not actual financial or logistical support to the opposition like given in the Ukraine and Georgia, the least the West can be expected to do is cut actual support to the dictator, right?

I thought we agreed that the West has a duty to follow up on its own rhetorics and bring about democracy around the world through any means at hand, diverging only when it comes to actually starting a war for it.
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Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Sun 22 May, 2005 12:43 pm
Respect, Habibi . . .
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squinney
 
  1  
Reply Sun 22 May, 2005 12:58 pm
Don't forget...

http://www.thesmokinggun.com/graphics/art/bushlay12.gif
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ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Sun 22 May, 2005 01:02 pm
crikey
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Lash
 
  1  
Reply Sun 22 May, 2005 01:05 pm
I was thinking about this earlier.

No one here would prefer totalitarianism over freedom, so don't crawl on any high horse to speak to me about this--but you are counting several things as fact that you have no way of knowing.

Rather than overthrowing the Uzbek government, isn't the path of least resistance trying to influence Karimov before takling more striingent (dangerous) methods?

Don't you think the people of Ubekistan would suffer more than Karimov if we stop the paltry 10 mil?

Can you prove we send prisoners to Uzbekistan to be tortured? That's quite a bold accusation without proof.

What is the difference in the statement the US made and the one you insist we sign on to?

I think this should be analyzed before everyone jumps on board. That's likely what the WH thinks as well.
0 Replies
 
squinney
 
  1  
Reply Sun 22 May, 2005 01:08 pm
See ABOVE for what the White House thinks.
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Lash
 
  1  
Reply Sun 22 May, 2005 01:09 pm
I was also wondering--just questioning this further--

In my country, if a band of armed people broke into a jail and started releasing prisoners, they'd be shot.

Firing on an unarmed crowd--no excuse.

But, what actually happened deserves discussion.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Wed 25 May, 2005 01:24 pm
Lash wrote:
I was also wondering--just questioning this further--

In my country, if a band of armed people broke into a jail and started releasing prisoners, they'd be shot.

Firing on an unarmed crowd--no excuse.

But, what actually happened deserves discussion.

Hold on here for a sec. Your country is a democracy. One where there are a myriad ways to express one's dissent. I think we have brought sufficient proof here that the Uzbek regime, on the other hand, imprisons, tortures and executes like it's Libya or Syria. Victimising anyone remotely thought to be an opponent.

I wouldnt quite equate Karimov with Saddam - he hasnt gassed anyone yet - but the differences are definitely smaller than the similarities. This is not a regime where you can go for peaceful sit-ins with flowers in your hair.

And, let's say - if in Saddam's Iraq (or Assad's Syria if you like), a group of mostly unarmed protestors had broken into a local jail to free a group of local businessmen, who were held (and probably tortured) there on trumped-up charges, would you not have cheered? Would you have tut-tutted about how one can't encourage such behaviour?

I dont believe a word of it - and thank God. Just over in the other thread, you were still proudly recounting how the "US funds Revolutions" - including the one in Kyrgistan - and that wasnt exactly unarmed either.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Wed 25 May, 2005 01:35 pm
Translated from the Sueddeutsche Zeitung (keep in mind that German is not my native language):

Quote:
EU threatens with sanctions
Uzbekistan should allow independent inquest


Sueddeutsche Zeitung
24 May 2005

The EU states on Monday in sharp words demanded of the government of Uzbekistan to let the behaviour of its security forces in the provincial town of Andijan be investigated. They threatened the imposition of sanctions in case President Karimov does not agree to the demand. Possibilities include the cancellation of trade benefits as well as the suspension of development aid.

Up to a thousand people were killed during recent unrests in the East of Uzbekistan, according to human rights organisations. [..] In their declaration the 25 Foreign ministers of the EU countries now condemn "the excessive, disproportional and arbitrary use of violence by the Uzbek security forces." [..] Brussel expressed its "deepest" regret that Karimov has thus far resisted an independent international investigation of the events. High-ranking German diplomats on Monday demanded that Uzbekistan should allow experts of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) into the country. [..]
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Wed 25 May, 2005 01:55 pm
Translated from Monday's Sueddeutsche Zeitung:

Quote:
SZ-Interview with Uzbek opposition leader
"Terror is used to enrich the country"
Muhammed Salih considers President Karimov's fight against Islamists to be staged - West should suspend aid


Muhammed Salih , 55, Uzbek writer, is leader of the Democratic Freedom Party Erk. This is one of the two most important opposition movements in Uzbekistan, alongside the movement Birlik (Unity), from which it split off in 1990. In 1993 Salih had to leave the country and today he lives as refugee in Norway.

SZ: Uprising in Kyrgszstan, unrest in Uzbekistan: Will these developments lead to democracy or, as some fear, to the next Islamist dictatorship?

Salih: What is taking place here is a change in social structure, a spontaneous popular uprising. Some of the Western criticism here reminds me of the debate ten years ago. The Western countries at the time were satisfied with the democratisation process in the Soviet Union and had no higher expectations, feared, even, "too much progress". A revolution should not be considered. But it came to a breakthrough anyway. Considering the fact that democracy is no privilege of selected races, the West should have no problem with promoting younger democracies. After all, what should we do? Should we turn to China for support for our democracy movement? Or to Russia to get support in acquiring the freedom of opinion? No. This time the West must believe in a peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy in Central Asia.

SZ: The Uzbek President Islam Karimov however warns against Islamist tendencies.

Salih: The existence of islamist groups in Central Asia can not be ignored - the regime of Uzbek President Islam Karimov contributes to them finding a place in the country. After the democratic oppositional groups were forbidden, they were replaced by Islamists. The West however praises Karimov as a "fighter against terror". But the terror stands in relation to Karimov's regime and army. Many states help the "allies against terrorism" with all means, like never before - to such an extent that terrorism already constitutes a source for national enrichment [for the Karimov regime].

SZ: The Islam in Uzbekistan, like in all of Central Asia, is considered moderate. Before the Soviet era it was suffused with Sufism, the Islamic mysticism.

Salih: The peoples of Central Asia have for decades practised an adaptable, open form of Islam. [..] This part of the continent has no radical Islamic roots.


OK, I gotta stop translating its closing time in this internet cafe ...
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 25 May, 2005 01:57 pm
Quite interesting what the just released Freedom House study: How Freedom is Won: From Civic Resistance to Durable Democracy* says about Uzbekistan:

Quote:
Transition Characteristics
The Factor of Violence: mostly nonviolent
Forces Driving the Transition: powerholders
Strength of Nonviolent Civic Coalitions: weak or absent

Narrative
An active civic movement, the Birlic (Unity) Peoples Movement, inizially pressed for language and cultural rights as well as redness of ecological problems. Birlik's efforts in 1989-90 were joined by student, environmenatl, and political groups. This activism was primarily centered on the capital Taschkent. When the failed hardliner Soviet coup collapsed in August 1991, Uzbek civic groups pressed for independence. But the process toward statehood - which was declared in December 1991 - was mainly led by the indigenous Communist elite. Some protests were suppressed through state violence.

source as above: Country Reports, Uzbekistan, page 32-33


* "This Freedom House study analyzes 67 transitions from authoritarian rule that have occurred since 1972, the beginning of what political scientists call the 'Third Wave' of democratization. The study examines four key characteristics of each transition -- the societal forces driving it, the strength of nonviolent civic resistance, the level of violence, and the sources of that violence -- to determine how successful transitions to democracy are achieved. In large measure, the study finds that transitions generated by nonviolent civic coalitions lead to far better results for freedom than top-down transitions initiated by elites. The findings suggest that policy makers should offer support to nascent civic resistance movements in order to foster democratic change."
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