Was the Exodus natural or supernatural, fact or fiction?

It's fiction. Obviously.

It's really neither fact nor fiction.

That there was an exodus of Jews from Egypt into what was then called Galilee is undeniable historic fact. There is no reason, either, to doubt the existence of a leader whose name was something like Moyshe (Moses). The supernatural aspects, however, i.e. the plagues sent by god, the parting of the Red Sea etc. etc. are obvious embellishments to the bare bones of historic fact. Likewise, most historians today believe that the description of Jews being oppressed in Egypt is, at the very least, an exaggeration. Some recently deciphered Egyptian writings would seem to indicate that the Jews were not particularly welcome in Egypt. Their leaving would likely have caused a sigh of relief rather than pursuit.

I've always been a little disturbed over this story. Pharaoh seemed like a pretty decent guy, at least for the times, and probably would have done the right thing. So what happens? God "hardens his heart" and then has an excuse to punish him. What's up with that?