@sandy111,
Quote:In fav of A = 10/40 = .25
B = 12/20 = 0.6
C= 15/30 = 0.5
D = 7/10 = 0.7
Thus ,
Not favouring A = (1-0.25) = 0.75
Favouring B = 0.6
Fav C= 0.5
Fav D = 0.7
Thus,Final Not Fav. A = (0.75) (0.6) (0.5) (0.7) =0.157
Thus, Fav A = 1- 0.157 = 0.85
You're overlooking the fact that 'favoring B' = 0.6 doesn't imply that 'not favoring A' is also 0.6. That's only true if the other 8 people in the second group all thought A is the correct answer. In fact, it is likely that the other 8 people's votes would have been spread across A, C, and D in some distribution that isn't 8, 0, 0.
I attempted to come up with a reasonable method for determining that distribution.
And why are you multiplying the probabilities? Let's take a very simple case:
2 choices (A and B), 2 groups with 3 people each
2 people in group 1 think A is correct
1 person in group 2 thinks B is correct
Using your method, we'd say:
not favoring A = 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9
therefore favoring A = 8/9
not favoring B = 2/3 * 2/3 = 4/9
therefore favoring B = 5/9
Clearly, this is incorrect as the ratio 8/9 : 5/9 should be 2 : 1.