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Hopes, Fears Surround China's Transition Of Power

 
 
Reply Mon 13 Feb, 2012 11:41 am
Hopes, Fears Surround China's Transition Of Power
by Louisa Lim - NPR Morning Edition
February 13, 2012

First of three parts

China's leader-in-waiting, Xi Jinping, is due to arrive in the U.S. shortly, providing the first glimpse of the next generation to lead the world's second-largest economy. This once-in-a-decade transition of power, which begins this fall, is rife with unpredictability, particularly as an unfolding political scandal grips China.

Despite the country's growing prosperity and status, at home the voices of criticism are ever louder. Mass protests — even small-scale revolts against the Communist Party — are becoming more common. In the post-Tiananmen era, China's guiding formula has been economic development without political liberalization.

"Reform has gone backward, strengthening the privileged," says liberal political analyst Hu Xingdou. "For private businesses, the situation is getting worse. The rule of law is deteriorating. A decade of stability has allowed development, but it's hard to say if this is short-term [development] preceding a collapse or a real step toward modernization."

Generational Differences

China's current leaders are mainly technocrats, with a large preponderance of engineers, like President Hu Jintao. Their university education was highly ideological, much of it falling around the time of the Cultural Revolution. If any of them spent time studying overseas, it was likely to have been in the Soviet Union.

"They are extremely conservative, far more conservative than our generation," says Yang Baikui, a university classmate of the man likely to be China's next premier, Li Keqiang.

Because of their educational background in law and political science, they may be less scared of political experimentation or rule of law. That's certainly a hope, but there's also a fear that this generation may also be more nationalistic, more arrogant, maybe sometimes too bold or risk-takers. We don't know.

- Cheng Li, of the Brookings Institution

"They reaped all the benefits of all the political movements. They weren't ever attacked; they were the ones attacking other people," says Yang, a translator who spent time in jail for aiding Tiananmen Square activists.

"And until now, they have always been the beneficiaries of communist rule, much more so than those who came before them and those who came after them," he says.

The generation of new leaders came of age in very different times. Many of them studied social sciences at university in the 1980s, the most liberal era in modern China, allowing them to become familiar with Western intellectual thought. Most of them have traveled abroad; Xi's daughter is studying at Harvard. According to U.S. diplomatic cables made public by WikiLeaks, Vice President Xi Jinping has specifically mentioned his love of Hollywood movies, specifically Saving Private Ryan.

Cheng Li, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, says this generation of leaders is "more cosmopolitan."

"And also because of their educational background in law and political science, they may be less scared of political experimentation or rule of law," Cheng continues. "That's certainly a hope, but there's also a fear that this generation may also be more nationalistic, more arrogant, maybe sometimes too bold or risk-takers. We don't know."

Tackling The Tiananmen Taboo

Among some quarters, there is hope that boldness could mean a willingness to tackle political reform. Some even believe there's a chance the new generation could take on the biggest political taboo of all: the protests in Tiananmen Square in 1989, which were labeled as counterrevolutionary.

Chen Ziming, who Beijing determined was the "black hand" behind the student movement and who was sentenced to 13 years in prison, says "there is a possibility the next generation may overturn the verdict on the events of 1989."

"It's a good bargain. They lose nothing, but they win points," Chen says. "I don't think it will happen immediately, but they may consider it when they've consolidated their position. With the current leadership, there was no chance. But with the new leadership, there is a chance."

Others disagree, saying the incoming leaders have no proven track record as political reformers. Whether they embark on political reform — and how to do so — could well emerge as the defining issue of the next generation.

"The dilemma is that the leaders, if they want to open the system, they deal with serious challenges," says Cheng of the Brookings Institution. "But if they don't want to open the system, they face the possibility of revolution."

Wang Lijun (shown here in 2009) was recently relieved of his duties as the top policeman in the southern Chinese city of Chongqing and then spent a day at a U.S. consulate, where he was rumored to be seeking asylum. Before his fall from grace, Wang had been a close ally of Bo Xilai, a once-rising star in the Communist Party.

Signs Of A New Factional War?

Another key question is how much internal unity there really is, given that the Communist Party is splintering into unofficial groupings. Xi Jinping is from the princeling faction — the children of the communist elite. The man tipped to be his premier, Li Keqiang, is from the more populist faction, who hail from humbler backgrounds and may have risen up through the Communist Youth League.

Brookings' Cheng describes the new reality as "one party, two coalitions" — in other words, "populists versus elitists, or Communist Youth League versus princelings" — requiring leadership by consensus. Political analysts frequently cite Japan's Liberal Democratic Party — in which the factionalization has become institutionalized — as an example of how China's Communist Party could develop.

"You do see this kind of factional infighting become increasingly transparent, and Chinese society, Chinese intellectual community and Chinese leadership becoming more diversified or pluralistic," says Cheng. "That's a welcome development, but it also poses serious challenges."

However, a political drama currently roiling the country could signal the outbreak of a new factional war. Wang Lijun was a hero and the crime-busting top cop in the southern city of Chongqing — until 10 days ago, when he was reassigned to become a deputy mayor, with duties including overseeing sanitation and public records.

Then Wang fled to the U.S. consulate in the southwestern city of Chengdu, and spent an entire day holed up there. At first, the Chongquing government claimed he was on leave, undergoing "vacation-style therapy" for stress. But now the central authorities have announced an investigation. Some speculate that, faced with a corruption investigation, Wang had tried to claim asylum; others hint that he might have been seeking shelter after falling out with his former boss, Bo Xilai, a prominent member of the Communist Party's princeling faction, who was once a contender for a top political spot.

A U.S. State Department spokeswoman said Wang had left the consulate of his own volition, although photos from the scene showed a massive Chinese security presence.

The events are shaping up to be the scandal of the year — if not the decade — in China, galvanizing the microblogging community in a way that no other political drama has managed to do.

The scandal won't affect Xi Jinping's trip to the U.S. But the political impact will reverberate through the next leadership lineup, tainting Bo Xilai by association. The court intrigues once played out behind closed doors have been plunged into the public sphere, complicating an already tricky transition.
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BumbleBeeBoogie
 
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Reply Tue 14 Feb, 2012 11:30 am
@BumbleBeeBoogie,
A Pragmatic Princeling Next In Line To Lead China
by Louisa Lim
February 14, 2012

Second of three parts

In northwestern China's Shaanxi province, a neatly manicured and landscaped memorial park the size of six soccer fields is one sign of the revolutionary lineage of Xi Jinping, the man set to become China's next leader.

Known as a Communist Party princeling, Xi is the 58-year-old son of Xi Zhongxun, a deputy prime minister and revolutionary hero who died in 2002.

The elder Xi was born in Fuping county in Shaanxi, more than 600 miles southwest of Beijing, and is considered a hometown hero.

On a recent day at the memorial park, a man who gives his name as Li says Xi Zhongxu "liberated the poor masses, and allowed us to live a good life." The man is referring to Xi's role as the architect of Deng Xiaoping's special economic zones, which played an important role in China's process of reform and opening up.

But in the memorial hall devoted to Xi, decades of his life are undocumented. That's because he fell out of favor in 1962, accused of disloyalty to the party. He spent many of the intervening 16 years in jail, some of it in solitary confinement, until he was rehabilitated in 1978.

A family photograph from 1958 showing Xi Jinping (left), 5, with his brother Yuanping and father, Xi Zhongxun, is on display at a museum in Xi Zhongxun's hometown in China's Shaanxi province.

His son, Xi Jinping, also suffered: He was labeled a "reactionary student" when he was just 14 years old, according to the state-run Shaanxi Farmers' Daily newspaper.

Despite that, the younger Xi — China's current vice president — spent much of that time trying to join the very Communist Party that was persecuting his father, applying as many as 10 times before his application was accepted in 1974, according to the Hong Kong newspaper Ming Pao, citing an article said to be written by Xi himself.

"At that time, if you want to have a career, you do need to have that ticket," says Cheng Li, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, explaining how joining the Communist Party was the only chance of social mobility in the political context of that era.

An Understanding Of Rural Life

From age 15, Xi Jinping was sent to live in the countryside, spending seven years in a remote Shaanxi village, first as an ordinary farmer, then as a low-level official.

"He told Chinese official media many times that was his formative experience. He learned a lot of things: humanity, humility, adaptability and endurance," Li says. "Certainly it also gave him a chance to understand rural China."

Xi's relatives still live at the ancestral home where his father grew up in Zhonghe village. His 81-year-old uncle, Xi Zhongfa, uses the one-story earthen hut with dirt floors as storage space. Eighteen years younger than Xi Zhongxun, the old man simply says of his older brother, "He was good to me."

Life is still hard in the village. These elderly relatives still don't have hot water inside their house, and depend on an outside faucet for cold water. They say they don't enjoy any perks, and the only sign of their famous relative is a small, broken plastic sign on the wall of the ancestral home, attesting to the fact that Xi Zhongxun lived there.

Xi Jinping has been back to the village at least twice to visit, and many neighbors appear to have been impressed as much by his generous girth as the low-key manner of his visit.

According to Xi's aunt, Ding Fengqin, he gave the relatives a coded warning against corrupt or unseemly behavior.

Family members still live in the ancestral home of Xi Jinping's father in Zhonghe village, Shaanxi province.

"He called for family unity among the cousins. He told them to act according to national rules, and not to cause trouble," she says.

Business-Friendly, Open-Minded

For much of his life, Xi's fame has been overshadowed by his second wife, Peng Liyuan, who is a major-general in the army and a very popular singer. For Xi's part, on graduating from Tsinghua University in Beijing, his first job was as secretary to Geng Biao, a powerful military bureaucrat and then defense minister.

After that, most of Xi's career has been far from the center, in the rich, eastern coastal provinces of Fujian and Zhejiang and the city of Shanghai. He is seen as being business-friendly and having a no-nonsense attitude unusual among Chinese officials. Li Shih-wei, chairman of Ten Fu tea company and head of a Taiwanese investment association, describes their meetings in the 1990s.

"When he held meetings with us Taiwanese businessmen, he made sure the heads of the relevant government departments were present," Li recalls. "If we raised a problem, he'd ensure it was resolved then and there. He works very efficiently and in a very straightforward way."

Wang Jing, a businesswoman and chief executive of the Newland computer group, is another old friend. In 1993, she considered leaving Fuzhou, the provincial capital of Fujian, because of the bureaucratic difficulties in starting a business there. At the time, Xi was party secretary in Fuzhou, and Wang changed her mind after getting his help.

"He put much effort into supporting high-tech businesses," she says, describing him as being consistently ahead of the curve in his concerns. "Now the government is concerned about food safety. But back then, in Fujian, they were already looking at it. Another interest was building an ecological, environmentally friendly city."

Despite Xi's redder-than-red princeling background, friends say he's surprisingly open-minded. Jason Hsuan, the Taiwanese chairman of TPV, which bills itself as the world's leading computer-monitor maker, has known Xi for 22 years.

Hsuan describes Xi's voracious appetite for knowledge, saying the mainland Chinese politician has read widely about Taiwan's economic development and its democratization. He says Xi met a wide circle of Taiwanese in Fujian, including members of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party, which favors formal independence from Beijing.

In 1994, while on an official trip to Germany, Hsuan accompanied Xi on a stopover in Amsterdam. Hsuan says Holland's liberal policies toward drugs and prostitution fascinated Xi.

"I remember he asked so many questions, and I thought, 'Wow, he doesn't look like a communist,' " Hsuan says. "He was amazed at why the Dutch government has opened up this, but have pretty good control. He may not think it's a good idea to have this kind of thing in China, but he likes to learn."

Xi Zhongfa, 81, is the uncle of Xi Jinping, the man who is almost certainly China's next president, but the elder Xi's living conditions are very basic, with no hot water inside his house and little heating.

Building Political Capital At Home

Hsuan says Xi has always shunned ostentation, preferring to eat simple food like dumplings or noodles with minced pork. The pair used to play tennis together, but normally played at what Hsuan says was "a very average" court at a local school, rather than the more rarefied surroundings inside the government guesthouse.

Xi has twice been sent in to clean up after major corruption scandals. Sources say his daughter, who studies at Harvard under an assumed name, leads a low-key existence, unlike some of the flashier offspring of princelings, who have made headlines with their champagne-swilling, high-society lifestyles.

Friends describe Xi as genial and loyal, willing to travel out of the way to catch up with old companions. According to Hsuan, Xi has a "very strong" sense of humor.

As an example, he describes an incident in 1992, when the pair tried to visit Pearl Harbor, in Hawaii, during a tropical storm. Unwittingly they strayed onto the grounds of a military base, and were stopped by guards and asked to leave. On leaving, Hsuan says Xi joked, "Well, Jason, we have successfully occupied Pearl Harbor without any sacrifice of soldiers."

But that humor has not been on public display. Xi Jinping's most well-known public statement, and one indication of a more acerbic side to his personality, emerged on a tour of Mexico three years ago. Then, he criticized what he called "some foreigners with full bellies and nothing better to do than engage in finger-pointing."

"First, China does not export revolution; second, it does not export famine and poverty; and third, it does not mess around with you. So what else is there to say?" Xi said.

Nationalists at home went wild; others feared the comment was not statesmanlike.

Now, the stakes are higher. Faced with a political transition complicated by factional infighting, Xi needs a successful U.S. trip to burnish his credentials overseas and build political capital at home.
ninasen
 
  1  
Reply Fri 17 Feb, 2012 01:10 am
@BumbleBeeBoogie,
Whatever, we all hope peace.
0 Replies
 
 

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