9
   

Is the Euro well and truly buggered?

 
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Nov, 2011 02:24 pm
@High Seas,
Okay, thanks.

Just as a head-start to getting my confusion cleared up, my next question would be: who is insuring the hedges of these banks to such a large degree, and what's going to happen to THEM in the case of default?

Cycloptichorn
talk72000
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Nov, 2011 02:26 pm
I am clueless regarding Europe but I found this website showing the Scandinavian countries with the highest external debt to GDP.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30308959/The_World_s_Biggest_Debtor_Nations
0 Replies
 
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Nov, 2011 02:26 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
That's exactly where the politicians are trying to mess with the markets - and pretty much where the markets turn around and bite them! Well I found this:
Quote:
.....It’s a reasonably safe assumption, however, that on the whole European banks in core European countries would have been net buyers of protection (or at the very least large users of protection) as they will be the ones with a need to hedge exposure. Indeed, in July Deutsche Bank reported that it cut its net Italian sovereign exposure from €8bn at the end of 2010 to €997m by the start of July and had hedged Italian exposure in its trading book by using CDS. UBS this week announced €14bn gross exposure but a €9bn net exposure to sovereign bonds issued by Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain and Belgium.....

http://www.bondvigilantes.com/2011/10/28/if-sovereign-cds-is-no-longer-an-effective-hedge-then-whos-in-trouble/
....................... and this:
Quote:
Credit value adjustment desks are encouraged under Basel III to use sovereign CDS to hedge their counterparty credit risk, but uncertainty over whether Greek CDS would be triggered in the event of a debt restructuring has caused CVA desks to worry that their sizeable exposures to sovereigns and agencies may not be fully covered.

http://www.ifre.com/sovereign-cds-questions-remain/647152.article

The politicians are claiming Greece's 50% private sector haircut is not legally an event of default. Buyers of hedges (CDS etc) aren't taking it lying down ...... Sorry got to disappear - hope to God I don't have to learn Chinese any time soon... See ya.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Nov, 2011 02:32 pm
@High Seas,
Whew, that's heavy stuff.

From that same link:

Quote:
So who’s in trouble? Unfortunately, nobody really knows since a major problem with CDS is disclosure. It’s very difficult to figure out who has bought protection on a sovereign and who has written protection. As we wrote here, BIS (The Bank for International Settlements) data from earlier this year suggested that the US banks were large writers of protection and the European banks big buyers of protection. However the US banks in their results presentations claimed to have only small net exposures.


SOMEBODY is holding the bag if Greece defaults.

God, the CDS market is fucked and needs to be gotten under control as soon as possible.

Maybe you can answer this question as well - why does the ECB not simply print however many Euros are needed to cover the losses? Surely the downsides to this would be far preferable to watching Greece exit the system, and Italy and Portugal probably collapsing not long after that.

Cycloptichorn
talk72000
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Nov, 2011 02:52 pm
Here is the Eurozone:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/08/Eurozone.svg/450px-Eurozone.svg.png

Not all of Europe

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone

My Polish friend says Poland is buggered by Euro.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Nov, 2011 10:12 pm
Quote:
Until Mr Papandreou stepped out of line, Greece was due to receive another €8 billion tranche of its current bail-out loan, enough to cover wages and pensions until the end of the year and pay back some €2 billion of debt maturing in December. He will be reminded in Cannes that the money could still be withheld: disbursement is due next week. The progress report by experts from the EU and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) praised the government’s reform efforts, but a quick skim through the annex listing “to do” measures reveals dozens of gaps. “Not a single reform has been completed this year,” says one western European observer.

Privatisation is a particularly sore point with international creditors. Agricultural Bank of Greece, a loss-making state lender that has several hundred million euros in loans outstanding to political parties, was due to be sold early this year. It has just asked the finance ministry for a fresh capital injection of €290m to keep going for another six months. The new privatisation agency, which was supposed to raise €5bn by December, have cut back the target to €1.7bn because of delays in packaging state-owned real estate for sale.

Why has Greece failed to put its house in order in the year and a half since Mr Papandreou sought bail-out cash and technical assistance from the EU and the IMF? Lack of political will in his cabinet, where fellow reformers are in the minority, is one reason. Another is incompetence among old-fashioned, deeply politicised civil servants. And with civil servants hard-hit by the latest round of austerity cuts, working to rule has become the norm.


http://www.economist.com/blogs/newsbook/2011/11/euro-zone-crisis

Most likely Greece has does not have the will to follow the EU mandates, and never intended to do so. They did string Merkel and Sarkozy along for a good spell though didn't they!
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Nov, 2011 08:09 am
@hawkeye10,
I fear the next event will be the fall of the current government in Greece resulting from a no confidence vote in their parliament. That would leave these issues still in the air when the next EU financial aid tranche is due - and still with no committment from a Greek government able to deliver on its promises. That, together with the stark lack of constructive action to deal with its continuing deficits on the part of the Greek government, and the increasingly vocal (and often violent) resistence of the people to even the slightest of the many remedies they will clearly have to endure, appears to make a very bad ending to all of this inevitable.

The post-deal suprise of the Greek government, scheduling a surprise referendum on committments they had already made (presumably in good faith), appears to have destroyed any remaining sympathy for them among European governing circles and perhaps among the public as well. Once the major European powers conclude a Greek default is inevitable they will very quickly end all pretense at aid for Greece and focus entirely on limiting the contagion on their other, larger, threatened partners - prominently Italy and Spain. That moment appears to be now at hand.

The worldwide connectivity of financial markets adds likely poorly understood elements of risk for other countries, prominently including the U.S. and the UK, both of which are burdened with high debt levels, current deficits and slow economic growth. We should also worry about the transfer of our own funds to an ailing EU through the IMF.

Perhaps our esteemed Nobel laureate Krugman might care to revisit his earlier proposal for yet another multi trillion dollar "stimulus" on borrowed money.

Meanwhile our Congressional "select" committee appears to be as paralyzed as the Greeks in figuring out how to act responsibly to address our own growing debt crisis.

0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Nov, 2011 08:52 am
It is also interesting to speculate on what may be the follow-on (post Greek default) crises in the Eurozone area, very likely involving Italy and Spain. The Berlisconi government in Italy is already somewhat beseiged in domestic issues, and is, as well, already delinquent in responding to EU demands for economic reforms aimed at increasing economic growth and reducing public debt. Spain for its part is approaching national elections with the likely prospect of the defeat of the ruling socialist party and the restoration of a more conservative government - but still plagued by very high unemployment, particularly among the young, and new discoveries of high debts among regional governments. The growing restlessness of the more financially prudent northern tier of EU governments is already evident (but only Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Estonia use the Euro). A major shakeup of the Eurozone appears increasingly a real possibility.
CalamityJane
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Nov, 2011 09:39 am
@georgeob1,
I don't think Papandreou had a choice, he's foremost Greek and secondly European. They have had a rough year, their national healthcare system is due to collapse, every 5th Greek is unemployed and the ones who are employed saw their salaries slashed to 50 % and more. Government officials base pay was reduced to about 800 Euro a month. This mandatory austerity politics will finish them off completely. With a referendum, Papandreou at least gives the Greek their dignity back.

Of course, should they vote against the EU and revert back to their Drachme currency, a devaluation is inevitable and would push Greece to the brink of bankruptcy for sure.

However, we don't know yet the outcome of the vote, but if the majority of Greece decides against the EU, it most certainly will shake up the EU. Papandreou is much more regarded by the Greek, than Berlusconi ever was by the Italians and I doubt that the Berlusconi government is able to enforce any economic sanctions in Italy. I am also certain that the Spaniards will vote differently at their upcoming national election and perhaps it will be an election against the EU as well.
CalamityJane
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Nov, 2011 09:44 am
Oh wow, change of plans.....This just came in

Quote:
Nov 3 (Reuters) - Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou's government is ready to hold talks with the opposition on its demand for a caretaker government until snap elections are held, a government spokesman said on Thursday.

Papandreou's concession comes as his government appeared on the verge of collapse after his call for a referendum on Greece's bailout package sparked an uproar in the country and abroad. The opposition New Democracy party had earlier on Thursday called for a transitional government to lead the country until it secures a vital aid payment from foreign lenders, with a view to new elections after the funds are received.

"We welcome New Democracy's decision to support the Oct. 26 deal," spokesman Ilias Mossialos told reporters, referring to the EU bailout deal struck last month.

"As far as the other proposals are concerned, we are ready to seriously discuss them, in the interest of country."
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Nov, 2011 09:46 am
@CalamityJane,
I don't argue with your conclusions. However, I think it is already clear that Merkel & Sarkozy were (justifiably) offended by Pampandreu's action, coming as it did after he make committments to them. Moreover the growing public unwillingness in Germany and now the Netherlands to subsidize a Greek public still unwilling to face the music that they have made is also increasingly clear. It appears to me that a Greek default and departure from the Eurozone is inevitable (three generations of Papandreu's is enough to sink any country).

The issue has now moved to Italy and Spain, and in some ways they may prove to be just as intractable as that in Greece.
0 Replies
 
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Nov, 2011 10:33 am
@CalamityJane,
The joke in Berlin is that if the Greeks don't decide to leave on their own, the rest of the eurozone should confound them by going ahead and adopting the drachma.
http://im.media.ft.com/content/images/232ebe88-0570-11e1-8eaa-00144feabdc0.img
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Nov, 2011 11:34 am
@High Seas,
..... and the joke in London (UK isn't in the eurozone) is..........
If a military junta came to power in Greece through a coup, it would be rather a good thing, because military juntas are not allowed in the EU.
CalamityJane
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Nov, 2011 11:38 am
@High Seas,
Haha, at least some do see the humor in all of this. Interesting times in Europe, especially with Erdogan now playing "Kochloeffel" who wants to steer around the EU too.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Nov, 2011 01:04 pm
@talk72000,
I'm in Poland now, and from what little I've observed here, it would be a death-nell for their growing economy - the strongest in Europe.
talk72000
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Nov, 2011 02:33 pm
@cicerone imposter,
My friend says the Germans are buying land and property in former Prussia. Western Poland is in German hands and he suspects the Russians will gobble up the Eastern half and there would be no more Poland.

The Greece situation is a geopolitical one. It is a Greek Orthodox country so it backed Serbia and Russia when NATO bombed Yugoslavia. Then there is the Cyprus situation with the Turks sending Turkish troops to help the Turkish Cypriots. There is tension between Turkey and Greece. Greece with an economy of tourism, fishing and oil tanker transport (remember Onassis, one time richest guy in the world) suffers from a high Euro value. They probably bought military hardware most likely from Germany with German loans for the million-dollar Leopard tanks and 20 or 50-million-dollar fighter/bomber aircrafts and warships to counter Turkey.
0 Replies
 
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Nov, 2011 06:48 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Poland isn't in the euro zone - still uses the zloty. If they don't like the euro they don't have to join. Italy is the biggest euro problem - by now Greece is toast.
http://media.economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/full-width/images/print-edition/20111105_FNC011.gif
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Nov, 2011 06:53 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Walter could give you a more reliable answer, but my understanding is that the 1919 Versailles Treaty imposed on Germany was so catastrophic for its people that it directly led to Weimar hyperinflation - that's the real problem, nobody knows how to stop the printing press once it starts. Ever saw the Fantasia (Disney) part with the apprentice magician trying a spell on some buckets of water and a few mops? Maybe someone can locate it? And anyway the appalling consequences of such treaties are very long-lived: the last payment due under the Treaty of Versailles (1919) was paid by Germany in 2010.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Nov, 2011 01:02 am
@High Seas,
I know Poland uses the zloty; I'm in Poland now.
talk72000
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Nov, 2011 02:15 pm
@cicerone imposter,
I only know what my friend tells me. He says they are using the Euro even though they are not yet in the Euro zone. They are probably using both currencies, maybe.

Quote:
Greece Signs Contracts for 183 Leopard 2s, 150 Leopard 1s
Aug 05, 2005 09:51 EDT
Related Stories: Contracts - Awards, Europe - Other, Issues - International, Legal, Lobbying, Middle East - Israel, Middle East - Other, Other Corporation, Tanks & Mechanized
Advertisement
LAND_Leopard_1A5_Greece.jpg
Greek Leopard 1A5
(click to view full)

EDefense Online reports that Greek government representatives in Berlin signed a contract for the purchase of 333 used tanks: 183 Leopard 2A4s and 150 Leopard 1A5 main battle tanks from Bundeswehr reserves. As DID noted on July 20, the overall value of this transaction was estimated at EUR 270 million (USD $324 Million), but no final figures were given in the Krauss-Maffei Wegman (KMW) release.


Both Greece and Turkey now will have Leopard tanks:

Greek tank
http://media.defenseindustrydaily.com/images/LAND_Leopard_1A5_Greece_lg.jpg

Turkish tank
http://media.defenseindustrydaily.com/images/LAND_M-60_Sabra_lg.jpg

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/greece-signs-contracts-for-183-leopard-2s-150-leopard-1s-0978/
0 Replies
 
 

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