9
   

Is the Euro well and truly buggered?

 
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 Dec, 2011 02:44 pm
@CalamityJane,
CalamityJane wrote:

The only person who has no credibility here is you. Your way of thinking is so far removed from the actual problem, there is no sense in discussing anything with you.


The major problem we face today is that there are far to many people like you running around...IE those with closed minds and poor education. The one problem compounds the other.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  2  
Reply Sun 4 Dec, 2011 04:02 pm
@hawkeye10,
hawkeye10 wrote:

Where the Germans should have guilt is in the foisting of the Euro upon Europe, but the Germany people were always skeptical...it was the Leadership of Germany and France who laid the groundwork for this disaster, and it was the political leadership of the rest of Europe who were at least complicate. The German people have no reason to feel guilty over the harm that the failure of the Euro causes, as had it been left up to them the Euro never would have happened. I understand that votes were taken to adopt the Euro, but the people were lied to, these were not fair votes. It is the German leadership which should feel guilty, as well as the rest of the European leadership, not the people.


Your argument is flawed and some your factual assertions incorrect on multiple levels. Perhaps you should be a bit less willing to imply that your education and understanding are better than those of others here.

All the Eurozone countries are democracies with governments elected by their people, and the acession of each to the Eurozone was done in a democratic way. There is no distinction such as you claim to be made between leadership and people on this issue.

Many elements in Germany were indeed reluctant to give up their national currrency as you suggest. That's why the so called "Stability and Growth Pact", an agreement primarily focused on limiting deficit financing by members, was concurrently created to constrain the fiscal policy of all the member states. It turned out the annual deficit and related constraints of the Pact quickly became inconvenient to even the core member states, starting with France and later even Germany, and as a result starting about seven years ago its constraints were gradually lited to the point that it bacame a dead letter. This and the obvious willful failure, over several years, to look through Greece's multiple deceptions in its financial reports to the monetary union, were the proximate cause of the Euro crisis. A key, common underlying cause was a collective failure to deal with the economic consequences of a general (outside of Germany) lack of economic growth and chronic low birth rate which caused demographic changes which made their social welfare systems economically unsustainable.

All of these elements played themselves out in the internal democratic political struggles of each country, with those concerned about prudent financial management of government on one side and the various beneficiaries of government payments (on borrowed money) on the other. All were involved. None of this is very far removed from the equally democratic process by which we too have dug the hole in which we now find ourselves.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 Dec, 2011 04:20 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
All the Eurozone countries are democracies with governments elected by their people, and the acession of each to the Eurozone was done in a democratic way. There is no distinction such as you claim to be made between leadership and people on this issue.


When the people are offered a choice that the leaders are not being honest about then the democracy has not functioned. The people were told

1) that leadership was sure that they knew what they were doing

2) that there was almost no downside risk

3) that the best interests of the people would be advanced by the Euro

We now know that leadership did not know what they were doing, that there was a huge downside to the improperly executed attempt to adopt a common currency, and that the leadership was more interested in attempting to create their utopia than they were in looking out for the best interests of the people. The leadership of Europe willfully took a blind eye to structural problems of the European financial system, and failed to do even minimal due diligence to make sure that the truth was being told in Brussels by the member states (waves to Greece) or that these countries executed prudent financial plans. There is no reason for the people of Europe to feel any obligation for keeping the promises made under these conditions, self preservation trumps keeping promises made after manipulation.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 Dec, 2011 04:25 pm
@hawkeye10,
Quote:
(12/19/07) -
Germans Nostalgic Over Mark, Shun Euro,
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Most people in Germany are dissatisfied with their country’s decision to adopt the common European Union (EU) currency, according to a poll by FG Wahlen released by Dresdner Bank. 61.6 per cent of respondents support reinstating the German mark.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/29735/germans_nostalgic_over_mark_shun_euro/

I am attempting to see if the Germans were ever in favor of the Euro
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 Dec, 2011 04:47 pm
@hawkeye10,
So the Maastricht Treaty was never put to the people of Germany.... Brilliant! I was not aware, the German people have even less moral obligation to spend all of their money trying to bail out the whole of Europe than I thought they did.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 Dec, 2011 04:55 pm
@hawkeye10,
hawk, You are myopic in your views; looking back at history can be 20/20, but making choices at the moment of elections is not always what people end up liking after they see some history. That doesn't only apply to Germany.
If you bother to look in the mirror, we've had our share of misguided elections.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 Dec, 2011 05:37 pm
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:

hawk, You are myopic in your views; looking back at history can be 20/20, but making choices at the moment of elections is not always what people end up liking after they see some history. That doesn't only apply to Germany.
If you bother to look in the mirror, we've had our share of misguided elections.


I am talking about the choice that the German people need to make right now, and how much they should or should not factor into their decision Germany having signed onto Maastricht.

Like any modern marriage the EU union requires constant ratification, it is only good so long as the parties dont decide to walk out.
0 Replies
 
CalamityJane
 
  2  
Reply Sun 4 Dec, 2011 05:42 pm
@georgeob1,
George, you cannot argue with people like hawkeye, it's not worth your time.
I would put him on ignore, but he's such a proponent of pedophiles, rapists and child pornography that one needs to monitor closely what he's writing.
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Reply Sun 4 Dec, 2011 06:54 pm
@CalamityJane,
CalamityJane wrote:

George, you cannot argue with people like hawkeye, it's not worth your time.
I would put him on ignore, but he's such a proponent of pedophiles, rapists and child pornography that one needs to monitor closely what he's writing.



You can argue with people like Hawkeye, but what you can not do is slide conventional wisdom or totally unsupported assertions by as fact.

I love how you take my advocacy of sane collective regulation of individual sexual functioning and relationships and twist it into me loving the creeps. We see in this post clearly how your emotional response to ideas that you hate fucks with your mind, it makes it impossible for you to get your mind around justice when your heart wants vengeance for the alleged victims . You are the epitome of of the woman who convinced our forefathers that women should never be allowed anywhere near matters of consequence.
0 Replies
 
High Seas
 
  0  
Reply Mon 5 Dec, 2011 10:16 am
@CalamityJane,
The Italian welfare minister broke down and cried announcing the increase in retirement age to 62(!) for women and 65(!) for men - what was it before?? - but the bond market loved it. I did get one e-mail talking of "3-card Monti" but never mind. In Paris, Mrs Merkel got most of what she wanted, too.
http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2011/12/Italian-10-year-Dec-05.jpg
Yield on 10-year Italian bonds.
CalamityJane
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Dec, 2011 10:26 am
@High Seas,
Currently in Italy, anyone whose working years are 35 and higher could retire at 62, otherwise it was 65 for the private sector for men and 60 for women. Now, by 2050 it will be raised to 68 for men and 65 for women. Those who worked for 40 years can retire regardless of their age.

Yes, the German Spiegel reported that Merkel and Sarkozy have agreed on a new EU contract and they're (under worst case scenario) are prepared to reduce the EU to the 17 core countries.


CalamityJane
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Dec, 2011 12:06 pm
@CalamityJane,
That goes for the voting of the 17 EU countries...as most likely the UK and Ireland and others might not agree with the new revision>
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Dec, 2011 12:18 pm
@CalamityJane,
CalamityJane wrote:

That goes for the voting of the 17 EU countries...as most likely the UK and Ireland and others might not agree with the new revision>


Will the Germans agree? Last I heard this treaty change will need to go to the people according to the Supreme Court of Germany, the leaders of Germany cant get away with avoiding the will of the people this time.

Not that it matters a lot, as this new advertised solution is not a solution at all. What they propose is hurting nations who spend "to much", thus hurting their ability to pay their debt, the inability to pay debt being the problem that they are trying to solve. This threat only works as a threat, in practice it compounds the problem.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Dec, 2011 12:29 pm
@hawkeye10,
hawkeye10 wrote:

Not that it matters a lot, as this new advertised solution is not a solution at all. What they propose is hurting nations who spend "to much", thus hurting their ability to pay their debt, the inability to pay debt being the problem that they are trying to solve. This threat only works as a threat, in practice it compounds the problem.


What alternative solution, apart from a bailout with someone else's money, do you have in mind? The first law of holes is , "When you're in one stop digging." I believe the demanded actions so far have centered on just that - getting the nations involved to reduce and eliminate their current governmental deficits.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Dec, 2011 12:54 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:

hawkeye10 wrote:

Not that it matters a lot, as this new advertised solution is not a solution at all. What they propose is hurting nations who spend "to much", thus hurting their ability to pay their debt, the inability to pay debt being the problem that they are trying to solve. This threat only works as a threat, in practice it compounds the problem.


What alternative solution, apart from a bailout with someone else's money, do you have in mind? The first law of holes is , "When you're in one stop digging." I believe the demanded actions so far have centered on just that - getting the nations involved to reduce and eliminate their current governmental deficits.


Reducing gov't spending often leads to larger deficits as Austerity causes a slowdown in the economy in question, and a major drop in tax revenues. What you posit here simply isn't as cut-and-dry as you make it out to be.

Cyclolptichorn
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Dec, 2011 01:03 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
What alternative solution


I did not say that I had a solution, in fact a day or so ago I posited that maybe there is no solution. The advertised solution will take a long time to happen and Europe is out of time, there is no reason to assume that the people would support this proposed solution, and it is really not much of a solution in the first place.

We must be mindful that the Europeans have never liked markets as much as we Americans, and here we have the EU leadership telling the people that they must give up sovereignty to the tryanny markets, and oh ya, also accept a lower standard of living for the same reason. "Yes" is far from a slam dunk if the approval of the masses is required to make this "solution" happen.

0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Dec, 2011 01:04 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
I agree; cutting more government jobs means less consumer spending - which results in less demand for consumer goods and services and tax revenues. That only continues to exacerbate a bad economy into a worse one.

Since conservatives do not want to tax the wealthy, that only results in a worse condition for any government to fund all necessary programs including the maintenance of our infrastructure and the schools for our children - which is necessary to remain competitive in the world marketplace.

Shortsightedness of "cut more government expenses" ignores what's important in any economy.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Dec, 2011 03:08 pm
Quote:
'Surrender'

The Germans have accepted that the European Court of Justice will not be able to veto budgets but President Sarkozy has had to accept automatic sanctions for those who break the rules.

He has also conceded that eurobonds - common European debt - is off the agenda for the time being.

It is, however, the German vision that has sustained - tough discipline to keep budgets in check and austerity to drive down deficits.

The French Socialists who are challenging President Sarkozy in the election early next year say "austerity" was the big winner by a knockout. They judge that Nicolas Sarkozy has "surrendered" before the "German Conservative government of Angela Merkel".

As for Britain, Prime Minister David Cameron will face a tough decision as to whether he tries to win back powers from Europe in exchange for British support for a treaty change.

The biggest doubt that hangs over all this is, firstly, time.

The negotiations will go on for months and then there is underlying reality - none of these measures explain how the huge debt mountains will be brought down at a time of almost zero growth
.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16041109

The Greeks have already shown the way on how to get the right numbers, just lie about them. I dont see the money men as being dumb enough to buy this EU promise to do something a year or three down the line if the numbers dont look right, neither EU promises nor their numbers are reliable. I dont think that more promising and kicking the can down the road is going to work, this is the same old same old that never works. Either the Germans step up and pay the EU bills or the Euro is done, THAT is the choice that needs to be made this week.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Dec, 2011 03:45 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

Reducing gov't spending often leads to larger deficits as Austerity causes a slowdown in the economy in question, and a major drop in tax revenues. What you posit here simply isn't as cut-and-dry as you make it out to be.

Cyclolptichorn


Odd then that you don't credit tax reductions coupled with reduced government spending as a stimulus to economic activity (and subsequent tax revenues).

Since the "major drop in tax revenues" following a reduction in government spending is but a small (or even zero) fraction (assuming the spending is not on high tax rate payers) of the reduction in spending, the net effect will clearly be a reduction in government deficits.

The problem at hand iun Europe is high, unsustainable debt levels and an increasing unwillingness on the part of lenders to buy the bonds or debt of profligate countries, they have no choice but to reduce their spending. Moreover, because the loss of confidence for Greece, Portugual, Ireland and now Italy and Spain developed so quickly the lesson for others (including ourselves) is that debtors cannot count on the continued willingness of lenders to accomodate their perceived "need" for other peoples money.
CalamityJane
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Dec, 2011 03:49 pm
Quote:
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy gave a crucial show of unity in the euro crisis on Monday, announcing after a meeting in Paris that they will push for a new treaty, either among all 27 EU members or just the 17 countries in the euro zone, to force member states to adhere to tighter budget discipline in the future.

The two leaders also agreed to bring forward the establishment of the permanent bailout fund, or European Stability Mechanism, for ailing member states to next year from the original launch date of 2013.

They plan to submit their proposals to European Council President Herman Van Rompuy on Wednesday ahead of what is being billed as a make-or-break summit on the euro crisis on Thursday and Friday.

"Things cannot continue as they have done up until today," Sarkozy told a joint news conference with Merkel after the meeting. "Our preference is for a treaty among the 27 (EU members), so that nobody feels excluded, but we are open to a treaty among the 17 (euro members), open to any state that wants to join us."


http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,801858,00.html
0 Replies
 
 

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