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What is the probability in such events?

 
 
Reply Mon 7 Jun, 2010 03:33 pm
Toronto Blue Jays finished with a record of 75-87. In 47 of those games, both the offense and defense performed adequately, and in 42 of them, neither the offense nor the defense performed adequately. Of the remaining 73 games, only the offense per performed adequately 37 times and only the defense performed adequately in the other 36. When only the defense performed adequately, there was a 4/9 probability of winning, while they won 12 of the 37 games that only the offense performed adequately.

1) What is the probability that neither the offense nor defense performed adequately given that that Blue Jays lost?

2) What is the probability that both the offense and defense performed adequately given that that Blue Jays lost?
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engineer
 
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Reply Mon 7 Jun, 2010 05:08 pm
@Margarita321,
I believe your problem is underspecified. My approach to solving this is to divide the games into a two by two by two matrix. One axis is win or lose, the second is offense, good or bad, the third is defense, good or bad. For each box, I assign a letter:

A - Win, Good O, Good D
B - Win, Bad O, Good D
C- Win, Good O, Bad D
D - Win, Bad O, Bad D
E-H, repeat the above except for it's a loss.

You are given eight clues
Total wins, 75 = A+B+C+D
Total losses, 87 = E+F+G+H
Total times with both offense and defense good: 47 = A+E
And with both bad: 42 = D + H
Total good O only: 37 = C+G
Total good D only: 36 = B+F
Fraction of good D only won 4/9 = B / (B+F)
And finally, C = 12.

You can quickly get that B=16, F=20, C=12 and G=25, but the remaining four equations in four variables end up not uniquely solving the problem. Unless I missed another equation in there, there is not a unique solution for H and E which is what you need to answer the question.
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