11
   

Should I buy some GM stock right now?

 
 
chai2
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Feb, 2009 09:27 am
@Chumly,
Chumly wrote:

Sadly you simply prove optimism as to beating the net averages (after taxes and expenses) springs anew. Nonetheless market averages cannot by default be beaten on average over time. Unless or until you understand that you will not understand basic market dynamics, let alone the advantages of passive investing, asset allocation, and a given time horizon as per risk/reward.

Thanks, I enjoy being called stupid.
If you want to claim such principles are so-called "very debatable" then you ignore these principles at increased risk and decreased reward. Good luck with your after-taxes after-expenses coin tossing!

Won't be any taxes. Ever hear of a Roth IRA?
Expenses? You mean the cost of a few trades a year? Hopefully I will be able to clothe and feed myself after that enormous cost of $5/trade.

So, you've convinced me. Instead, I will put the part of my money I rolled out of an index fund Roth IRA and into a self directed account, back into that index fund, and let someone else roll the dice and toss the coins for me.

I'm neither optismistic or pessimistic.
I'm pragmatic. If I want to I can mimic exactly what a fund manager is doing.

What is the fund manager doing?
Watching the market as a whole, and moving huge blocks of stock in and out.
I can do that, plus, I can examine the individual components and say "I'm leaving that one out." Not because of a whim, but because, for instance if the fund manager is purchasing overstock.com, which hamburger recommended, I'd know that is a ridiculous move because their financials are a f'ing mess, and I don't care if the president says he "thinks" they've been doing much better in the last 6 months. I want to see how they've been doing the last 10 years.
Monkey see, monkey do can work great. If you're doing what the successful monkeys are doing.

How many customers does a fund manager have?
Thousands.
How fast can he move?
Slowly
Is he looking out for my best interest as an individual, or part of a huge group?



How many customers do I have?
One.
How fast can I move?
Like sixty
Who do I have to be concerned with pleasing?


Since you like to quote Warren Buffet, you might note that I found the part you left out of what you quoted him as saying...

Chairman Warren Buffett reiterated his view that for most small investors who don't have time to research individual companies, cheap index funds are the best way to invest in the stock market.

Note: he said most small investors, not ALL
he said those who don't have time to research individual companies....I do.


I'm sure index funds are fine for some/most people. I'm keeping part of my money in them, unless I find someplace better to put my money.

I'm quite capable of researching and investing another part of my money on my own.
I don't know why that bothers you, except that you want to think no one can do it unless you're born under a special star.


farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Feb, 2009 09:33 am
you go girl.
chai2
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Feb, 2009 10:16 am
OMG!!!

GM IS UP 9 CENTS!!!!!!!
0 Replies
 
chai2
 
  3  
Reply Mon 23 Feb, 2009 12:25 pm
@farmerman,
farmerman wrote:

you go girl.


Thanks farmer.

I respect chumley, but I get annoyed when someone says there is basically one way to do something, and if another way is practiced you're doomed to failure.

I got to thinking, and I know where my reaction came from.

Like I said, I grew up around people who invested in the market, but honestly, I just didn't pay attention.
When I was in college, I think I was a sophemore so it had to be 1980'ish and I was taking one of several ecomonics courses.

The prof was giving a lecture on an amazing new thing called and "IRA". Listening to him, it didn't seem like such a thing could be true. But talking to him later, he assured me it was, and said I needed to go to a brokerage firm to set one up. He seemed pleased that someone as young as me was taking an interest.

Anyway, not knowing the first thing about brokerages, I looked in the yellow pages and found Merrill Lynch.

This was a big deal to me, and I remember getting dressed in my most professional looking clothes (well, professional for a college student), and went down there.
I timidly asked at the desk if I could talk to someone about this IRA thing, and ended up talking to this guy who, thinking back, should have already been retired. White hair, suit and tie, giving me this grandfatherly scowl.

Since I really didn't know exactly how to go about this, I was terrified of looking foolish.
He starting asking me questions, like was I in school, and I relaxed a little, thinking I was being guided by someone who knew what to do.

His questions were...
You're in college? yes.

Well then, you don't work, do you? Well, yes I work part time.

Who pays for your school? Um...(wondering what that was about) well, my parents pay tuition and books, but I buy all my own stuff otherwise.

So your father is paying for school? Well, yeah, but this professor was saying I could put even just a little money into this...

Well then, why don't you just let your father take care of this for you. You don't have the money to do this Working a part time job while going to school isn't going to be enough, you'll spend it all. After you graduate and get married, your husband will know what to do.

I...****....you....not.

That was the conversation.
I walked out of there feeling as big as a gnat. I felt so ashamed for asking such stupid questions, and taking up someone's valuable time, thinking I could do something like this for myself.

I've always been a strong willed, independant person, so you know this guy really had to have put the whammy on me to make me feel that way.

When I graduated, I had all sorts of money saved just sitting around, that I could have been investing. I got a job that paid more than my simple needs. But, the most I would do is buy CD's, because it stuck in my head all those years that I wasn't capable of doing more.

I wonder if even one person reading this thread read chumley's remarks and thought "****, I shouldn't even try. Chumly's thrown all these names around of and all sorts of market stuff I don't even understand. It's too bad I could never have any influence on this stuff, where I could be in control. I better just let someone else who knows better do it for me."

****....that.....right up the ass.

It's not rocket science.

It's not la la la, this is such a cinch, but it's not rocket science.

I hope someone reads that!

If I can learn it, so can you.
dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Feb, 2009 12:55 pm
@chai2,
you go girl.
0 Replies
 
chai2
 
  1  
Reply Wed 25 Feb, 2009 02:07 pm
GM is just trouncing the market today.

Up over 16%.

If only I had known. Laughing
chai2
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Mar, 2009 02:13 pm
@chai2,
goodness me - GM up 24%



I just checked closing prices and see

the dow is up .74% today

The 6 stocks I've bought at various times since the beginning of the year are up +11.07%, +1.29%, +1.35%, +3.04%, +1.78% and -2.41%

I'm down as a whole, but that's because of one really dumb thing I did when I first started. I messed up a buy, and ended up being stubborn and buying it after it already went up. Lesson learned. I'm pretty good at keeping emotions out of it, but I wanted to buy something, and dammit, I did.

If I take that one out of the equation, I'd be up about 6 or 7% overall in these 2 1/2 months. That's 30% over a year.

I'm not saying that's going to happen, but this is fun.
roger
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Mar, 2009 05:22 pm
@chai2,
Penny stocks can be volatile, all right.
chai2
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Mar, 2009 06:08 pm
@roger,
No penny stocks in my portfolio.

All good companies.

Give me more credit than than roger, I'm just applying what I learned.

I'll be the first to admit when I lose, or when something happens I didn't expect, but it's validating when what I was confident would happen, did.

When something goes south, I'll look for what I did wrong.

I started this not so long ago, I'm curious where I'll be at the end of the year.
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Mar, 2009 06:17 pm
@chai2,
you go, girl!

started saving pennies, then nickles, then dollars. I know you know.
chai2
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Mar, 2009 06:46 pm
@JPB,
Well, I'm just saying where I am now.

I'm curious how others are doing.
0 Replies
 
roger
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Mar, 2009 07:18 pm
@chai2,
I was only pointing out how it is to consider GM, and GE for that matter, to be penny stocks.
0 Replies
 
chai2
 
  1  
Reply Thu 9 Apr, 2009 09:17 am
I am so pleased with myself.

I just sold 2 of my stocks.

One I owned for less than 4 weeks, and made over 25% on it.
The other I owned for 6 weeks, and made 23% on it.

Now I have to research for something else to buy.
0 Replies
 
dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Thu 9 Apr, 2009 02:02 pm
for the past 12 months I am down % 13.81
0 Replies
 
Ragman
 
  1  
Reply Thu 9 Apr, 2009 02:07 pm
@chai2,
There are serious talks about how the company (or parts of it) might be going bankrupt. My thought is that there are far better bets than GM stock to get a decent return on your investment dollar. Federal gov't is debating that very subject.

You might wait and see what the Feds do with a potential GM bailout or if they re-org ... before you think further about this as a stock investment.
Ragman
 
  1  
Reply Thu 9 Apr, 2009 03:06 pm
@Ragman,
"Federal gov't is debating that very subject" ...

That subject being whether or not to invest in GM with the possibility of them being a black hole or quagmire from which there can not be a recovery.
0 Replies
 
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Thu 9 Apr, 2009 03:23 pm
@chai2,
buy some caterpillar before the rising waters make it no longer a bargain
chai2
 
  1  
Reply Thu 9 Apr, 2009 05:48 pm
@Ragman,
Ragman wrote:

There are serious talks about how the company (or parts of it) might be going bankrupt. My thought is that there are far better bets than GM stock to get a decent return on your investment dollar. Federal gov't is debating that very subject.

You might wait and see what the Feds do with a potential GM bailout or if they re-org ... before you think further about this as a stock investment.


Ragman.

I....am....NOT buying GM stock!

The title of this thread was a j....o....k....e.

I am however doing pretty good right at the moment, and have a stock in my sights, and will watch for a little bit before deciding to buy.

A couple more stocks I have are down, but they can just sit there for a bit. Either one or the other will come up in the next 3 or 4 months....hopefully both.
0 Replies
 
chai2
 
  1  
Reply Thu 9 Apr, 2009 06:04 pm
@farmerman,
farmerman wrote:

buy some caterpillar before the rising waters make it no longer a bargain


Caterpiller isn't even a bargain now.

It's selling at about $32.50 now, and it's projected value is about 34.50. Not much wiggle room.

Also, it's ROIC since 2002 has only ranged from 2.65% to 7.55%

meh.

It looks like the price is going up now, but I don't think it'll get much higher than $36 if it continues to go up.

If it head back down from there, wait until it gets down to um....31 or 32....maybe 33 if it takes a while.

OK, that's my fearless prediction, let's see how in pans out in the next week or two.
0 Replies
 
chai2
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Apr, 2009 06:54 am
it's about 2 weeks later....

Catapillar closed yesterday at 30.48.

I think it's going to bounce back up for a few days, but I still would NOT buy it, now, or later.

 

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