9
   

***SALE*** Bargains Galore/ Get 'em While They're Hot!

 
 
cicerone imposter
 
  2  
Reply Thu 9 Oct, 2008 05:57 pm
@hawkeye10,
Not totally true; Microsoft, IBM, Johnson and Johnson, Procter and Gamble, many pharmaceuticals, and many of Warren Buffet's companies are cash rich.

Additionally, many repurchased their own stocks.
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Reply Thu 9 Oct, 2008 06:03 pm
@cicerone imposter,
exceptions that prove the rule, though I think all that you list do have a good stash of cash. The thing we don't know though is were was it? They may have lost a bunch of it already, depending one where it was parked. A lot of money was placed in safe places that proved not to be very safe.

Ya, i know the bought their own stock, and drove up the price....and later they issued new stock to replace it, so the market cap went up. If the true value of the stock was $30 but the company was buying it, the price may have gone to $35 because of the buyinf demand imposed by the company itself, you know, the laws of supply and demand. They then would issue new stock and get $35 for it, and big chunk of that would go to the wall street furm handling the issue as well as all of their friends. Then repeat, maybe get the stock up to $40.

The company is still worth only $30 a share, and now with the crash maybe $20.
0 Replies
 
Merry Andrew
 
  1  
Reply Thu 9 Oct, 2008 06:56 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Obviously your wife has excellent judgement herself.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Reply Thu 9 Oct, 2008 10:58 pm
anyone who wants bargains should not be looking at stock, wait till the first of the year when all of the retail bankruptcies hit, and buy Chinese sweat-shop produced wears at nearly cost. That is if you are willing to part with cash.
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Reply Fri 10 Oct, 2008 12:46 am
@hawkeye10,
the advise given to mom and pop investor is to stay, don't panic. What people are doing is cashing out.
Quote:
Investors pulled a record $72 billion out of stock and bond mutual funds in September, the research firm TrimTabs said yesterday, and in the past week alone took out $52 billion.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/09/AR2008100901205.html?hpid=topnews

ever heard they saying "do as I say, not as I do"?
Phoenix32890
 
  1  
Reply Sat 11 Oct, 2008 07:27 am
@hawkeye10,
I am holding tight, but will do some research this weekend to see if I can pick up a bargain or two next week.

I do see a change though. Thursday ALL of my stocks were down. Yesterday was a mixed bag, with some stocks gaining nicely. I think that is a good sign. (Famous last words!)
Shocked
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sat 11 Oct, 2008 11:19 am
@hawkeye10,
hawkeye, Good advise. However, my opinion is to buy some now through next year; averaging out your cost is the best strategy, because we don't know what will happen. That way, you don't lose out on the lowest or pay the highest.
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Reply Sat 11 Oct, 2008 11:43 am
@cicerone imposter,
Look at the TED spread CI, the credit markets are still broken. Over a trillion in US taxpayer support, something on the order of $5 trillion in liquidity injected by central banks, and nothing improves. It just gets worse. Nobody can call the bottom, but stocks are too pricey to be good bets for now. If I had money to burn I would start getting in at DOW 7500, not before. And only if I had twenty years before I needed to cash out. The only way I would change this advise is if the western nations go together and nationalize their banking systems.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sat 11 Oct, 2008 01:12 pm
@hawkeye10,
You live by your beliefs, and I'll live by mine, thank you! I'm not interested in a tit for tat with you.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sat 11 Oct, 2008 01:21 pm
@cicerone imposter,
in other words you are not interested in discussion and defending your beliefs...don't make this about me and pretend like it is a reflection upon me. You make your own choices, it has nothing to do with me.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sat 11 Oct, 2008 01:25 pm
@hawkeye10,
Yes, you are absolutely right on target. I only live by my "longivity" on Abuzz and a2k on financial matters. Oh, and that includes sharing my personal financial situation in good times and bad.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sat 11 Oct, 2008 10:22 pm
Quote:
By Nancy Trejos
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, October 12, 2008; Page F01

It has become a familiar refrain among financial advisers and investment strategists: The stock market may go down, but it always recovers over time.
If history has proved anything, it's that sometimes, it takes a really long time.

Take the bear market of 1967. That dragged on for 15 years. The Great Depression was called great for a reason: It took 30 years for the market to bounce back. Look at Japan, and you'll find that the Nikkei stock market index has yet to recoup its losses from its crash of 1990.

It's no wonder that investors now are fearing a prolonged and painful rut. Already, the Dow Jones industrial average is down more than 36 percent for the year.

"You could be in it for a long time, five or 10 years, before the Dow starts to rally," said Doug Roberts, founder and chief investment strategist of Channel Capital Research Institute in Shrewsbury

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/11/AR2008101100175.html?hpid=topnews
0 Replies
 
Miller
 
  1  
Reply Sun 12 Oct, 2008 08:29 am
@Phoenix32890,
Phoenix32890 wrote:

Well, it looks like the rats deserted the sinking ship. The market took a dump that was much worse than anything that I have seen in my lifetime.

Then again, there are a lot of good companies around, whose stocks are priced at bargain prices. Which ones of us are tough enough to put more money in a sinking market? Who thinks that there will be a depression?

I have a theory. If there is a depression, or even a severe recession, there are some things that people will need, no matter how frugal they are. Take toilet paper. I don't think that anyone will be using Sears catalogs to wipe their butts.

I maintain that the stocks in toilet paper companies will go through the roof.
What do YOU think? Are you courageous enough to step into the market now? What stock (or sectors) do you think will raise up out of this morass? Have we hit bottom yet?



Companies that produce disposable diapers are supposed to be hot. Do women really want to go back to cloth diapers?
Mad
0 Replies
 
Miller
 
  1  
Reply Sun 12 Oct, 2008 08:30 am
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:

Phoenix, You're spot on! Consumer goods producers like Johnson & Johnson, Proctor and Gamble, Costco brands of household goods, foods and staples like Campbell Soup (even McDonalds), are all good investments in good time or bad.


Campbells, even with a ton of salt in their soups, is still a good stock to buy. But take a look at Kraft...not doing so good.
0 Replies
 
Miller
 
  1  
Reply Sun 12 Oct, 2008 08:31 am
@realjohnboy,
realjohnboy wrote:

Earlier in the day (no telling what happened at the end) beer and tobacco shares were up.

Tobacco is down and is BUD...
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 12 Oct, 2008 10:42 am
I'm of the opinion that we've still not seen the bottom to this bear market, but I feel it's pretty close to the bottom now. We have lost most of the gains from the past four years, and people who are invested will try to protect that base. The reason I think this is because we still haven't seen the bottom of the subprime loan problem, and most families are having financial trouble. The recent bailouts still doesn't help main street.

Until Americans see help to main street, nothing much changes concerning this economy.
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 12 Oct, 2008 10:47 am
Hi to yall here. Re the Big Three, it is being reported that GM talked to Ford. That didn't work so now they are meeting with Chrysler. I have gotten most of my info from reading Forbes.com. It looks like GM is running out of cash at a pretty rapid clip. They may have only a few months worth left. Chrysler could still have a bunch of cash. As a privately held company, they don't have to confirm or deny that.
So whether or not GM joining with someone else will result in significant cost reductions appears to be secondary to buying some time. That seems to me to be a recipe for disaster.
Congress approved $25b for the auto industry as part of the bailout. But the Dept of Energy says it will take up to 6 months to decide whether or how to do that. And the legislation has something to the effect that the DOE has to look at the "viability" of the companies getting assistance.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sun 12 Oct, 2008 12:03 pm
@realjohnboy,
Quote:
Things are a bit trickier for GM. The company has tapped most of its credit lines. Its international operations were generating cash, but overseas economies are slipping now, too, says Oline. That means the company will almost certainly have to find a way to raise more money. GM had $21 billion in cash at the end of June. The company has a further $5 billion in available credit and cash and plans to save $10 billion from cost cuts. Assuming GM can also tap $5 billion to $7 billion in federal loans that the federal government has approved, GM has up to $21 billion in excess liquidity on top of the $14 billion it needs to run the company, says Gimme Credit analyst Shelly Lombard.

Given GM's cash-burn rate of more than $3 billion a quarter, the company has five to seven quarters before it gets down below the bare minimum it needs to buy parts and keep factories humming, Lombard says. GM's best bet is to tap the government's loan program and hope the market turns up.


http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/oct2008/db2008106_769033_page_2.htm

GM had a burn rate of a $ 1 billion a month before the credit markets seized, and even people with good credit began having problems getting auto loans at decent rate. I suspect that the burn rate is now at least $1.5 billion a month, and there is huge doubt about their ability to use any remaining lines of credit. Given laws and the CBA there are major costs to shrinking, so producing or not producing GM will continue to run through their cash at a fast clip. It also must be remembered that dealers are having a hell of a time getting credit to carry stock on their lots, GM will need to help the dealers if they want to sell anything, a new drain of cash when GM can ill afford it.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 12 Oct, 2008 12:05 pm
@hawkeye10,
True, that! Without cash to extend credit, they are all doomed.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sun 12 Oct, 2008 12:32 pm
@cicerone imposter,
and at the moment if GM wants to sell cars it must supply credit to the dealers in the form of waiting for the sale to collect any cash, and must help finance the buyer as well. Keep in mind also that GM is supposed to rid itself of its obligation to retiries by way of a $30 +billion payment to the UAW in 2011 (this is the negotiated deal with the UAW), In order for that to work GM has to make it to 2011 and it also must have a $30+ billion check to hand over in 2011.
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/03/04/america/UAW-Health-Care.php
 

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