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What is going to happen, economically?

 
 
OGIONIK
 
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 09:34 pm
Seriously now folks, this is very grave. Im definitely not an expert, but this is ridiculous.

How far is it going to go?

What should we do to prepare?

Can we even trust money at this moment?

Should i keep my money in a bank account?

Healthcare, takes money, housing takes money, food and water, waste removal, they cost money.


im a skeptic to the highest degree, but it seems like the monetary system is actually collapsing. what are some examples of other countries, (aka russia) whos economies have collapsed and what happened?
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Type: Question • Score: 13 • Views: 4,431 • Replies: 59

 
OGIONIK
 
  2  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 09:49 pm
@OGIONIK,
washington mutal was my old bank, i think something happened to it.

great timing i must say, i must say indeed.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 09:51 pm
@OGIONIK,
Go read about economics re 1929-1932.....
Quote:
The Great Depression in the United States began on "Black Tuesday" with the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and rapidly spread elsewhere. The market crash marked the beginning of a decade of high unemployment, poverty, low profits, deflation and lost opportunities for economic growth and personal advancement in the United States. Although the causes of the Great Depression are still uncertain, the basic cause was a sudden loss of confidence in the economic future. Many economists agree with Geogre Bushes's argument that blames the length of the depression, but not its cause, on an unwillingness by the Federal Reserve System to help banks avoid runs on their deposits. The traditional explanation of a combination of high consumer and business debt, ill-regulated markets that permitted malfeasance by banks and investors, growing wealth inequality, and natural disasters such as the Dust Bowl and 1926 Miami Hurricane creating a downward economic spiral of reduced spending and production are also offered as alternative explanations

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression_in_the_United_States

we are currently in the downward spiril, though no one wants to admitt it.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 10:06 pm
@hawkeye10,
Quote:
1929
Herbert Hoover becomes President.
Annual per-capita income is $750. More than half of all Americans are living below a minimum subsistence level.
Backlog of business inventories grows three times larger than the year before.
Recession begins in August, two months before the stock market crash. During this two month period, production will decline at an annual rate of 20 percent, wholesale prices at 7.5 percent, and personal income at 5 percent.
Stock market crash begins October 24. Investors call October 29 Black Tuesday. Losses for the month will total $16 billion, an astronomical sum in those days.

1930

By February, the Federal Reserve has cut the prime interest rate from 6 to 4 percent. Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon announces that the Fed will stand by as the market works itself out: 'Liquidate labor, liquidate real estate... values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up the wreck from less-competent people'.
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff passes on June 17. With imports forming only 6 percent of the GNP, the 40 percent tariffs work out to an effective tax of only 2.4 percent per citizen. Even this is compensated for by the fact that American businesses are no longer investing in Europe, but keeping their money stateside. The consensus of modern economists is that the tariff made only a minor contribution to the Great Depression in the U.S., but a major one in Europe.
Supreme Court rules that the monopoly U.S. Steel does not violate anti-trust laws as long as competition exists, no matter how negligible.
The GNP falls 9.4 percent from the year before. The unemployment rate climbs from 3.2 to 8.7 percent.
1931

No major legislation is passed addressing the Depression.
The GNP falls another 8.5 percent; unemployment rises to 15.9 percent.

1932

This and the next year are the worst years of the Great Depression. For 1932, GNP falls a record 13.4 percent; unemployment rises to 23.6 percent.
Industrial stocks have lost 80 percent of their value since 1930.
10,000 banks have failed since 1929, or 40 percent of the 1929 total.
GNP has also fallen 31 percent since 1929.
Over 13 million Americans have lost their jobs since 1929.
International trade has fallen by two-thirds since 1929.
Congress passes the Federal Home Loan Bank Act and the Glass-Steagall Act of 1932.
Top tax rate is raised from 25 to 63 percent.
Popular opinion considers Hoover's measures too little too late. Franklin Roosevelt easily defeats Hoover in the fall election. Democrats win control of Congress.

http://www.hyperhistory.com/online_n2/connections_n2/great_depression.html

notice how the markets tanked in oct 1929, but all through 1930 and 1931 the downward spiral continued. We can not count on it taking over a year for unemployment to explode, back in those days employers kept people on for as long as possible out of a sense of obligation, today that will not happen.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 10:37 pm
@OGIONIK,
I'll try to summarize my opinion the best I can, but you must remember that they are opinions. Economics is an art, not science, so no matter who opines about the current "crisis," even experts will not agree about pending conditions and solutions.

1. All FDIC bank accounts are insured by the feds up to $100,000, and more depending on who owns the account. A couple can have $300,000 in FDIC insured accounts.

2. Our unemployment according to government stats now sits at 6.1 percent; not high by any world standard. This is a plus, but don't forget, we lost some 600,000 jobs since January of this year, and we need to create 100,000 new jobs every month to just meet demand. Watch your eye on this important number. Since the employment numbers still looks relatively healthy, that means most Americans are still employed and enjoying income - even if most wages are not keeping up with inflation.

3. The current crisis does not resemble the great depression, because the makeup of our economy and the world's has much more variety and is more complex. What this means to me is that it'll take quite a lot of poor management to completely destroy it. The problem with the current crisis is that it's about money and liquidity; not only is our government in debt, the consumers are also in debt, and many families are struggling just to make ends meet. The given is that more families will be losing their jobs and their homes for the next two years or so (my guesstimate).

4. The bailout our government is now talking about in the amount of $700 billion dollars will be an overall negative for our economy, because it'll increase inflation, our currency will lose value, and energy will cost more for all Americans, because we'll be buying oil with cheaper dollars.

5. These huge government deficits will handicap not only the current economy, but the future economy of our country for generations. That's because our economy is shrinking while our cost continues to increase, and consumers can no longer keep our economy plugging along with loans from their equity in their homes or retirement savings (that's what propped up our economy for the past several years), and consumer spending used to represent 70% of our GDP. The piggy bank is now running on empty.

6. We're going to continue to see layoffs from not only banks and finance companies, but from many industries (such as retail) that were supported by consumer spending (much of it from increasing their debt).

7. If you have cash, save it for that rainy day (now).

8. My solution for the current economic malaise is for our government to start Public Works Projects to put people to work rather than bail out the money industry with that $700 billion. Jobs begets more jobs, and increases the tax base - which is sorely needed by our country.

9. Hang onto your hats, because we're going to see volatility in the stock market never seen in its history.

0 Replies
 
NickFun
 
  3  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 11:09 pm
Supposedly all our money up to $100k per account is supposed to be insured and protected by the FDIC. So relax folks! There's nothing to worry about! (suddenly the roof caves in)
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 11:15 pm
@NickFun,
Nick, Don't forget that the $100,000 you put in the bank and the $100,000 you get back doesn't have the same value as when you put it in the bank. It'll shrink quite a bit from this "bail out."
0 Replies
 
dadpad
 
  2  
Reply Tue 23 Sep, 2008 12:43 am
@NickFun,
Insured by who?
jespah
 
  1  
Reply Tue 23 Sep, 2008 04:27 am
@dadpad,
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation -- part of the legislation passed in direct response to the Great Depression.
0 Replies
 
squinney
 
  1  
Reply Tue 23 Sep, 2008 06:26 am
I was wondering about this, too, so thanks for asking Og.

When the "guvment" met last week to discuss it was reported by a couple of people in attendance afterwards that it is worse than anyone can imagine.

That shocked the heck outta me. They usually aren't that straight forward nor would they want to say such a thing and create panic / lower confidence even more. So, coming from the biggies on the Hill, it was a real "OMG" moment.

The problem I think / have heard with the unemployment numbers is that they do not reflect true unemployment since only those seeking work are counted. Many are still out of work but no longer counted because the unemployment benefits have run out and they no longer need to check in with the unemployment office in order to qualify for the benefits. They may still be looking, but not counted. Right?

kickycan
 
  2  
Reply Tue 23 Sep, 2008 08:54 am
What about my 401K? Is that safe? Is it worth it to take it out, financial penalties and all, and move it into a money market account or something? Or should I just leave it alone and hope for the best?
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 23 Sep, 2008 10:15 am
@squinney,
squinney, That's a fact; most of the unemployed are not counted. Why our government would skew unemployment numbers seems they share misinformation just to make most Americans feel good about our economy. I can't see any other "benefit."

0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 23 Sep, 2008 10:22 am
@kickycan,
kicky, Good question. Let me start by saying that a) the market is going to be very volatile for awhile, and b) I'm leaving my retirement investments in with Vanguard for the long haul.

If you still have many working years ahead of you, you're better off than my wife and I, because there is no way for us to replace any of our losses; we're both retired. However, in looking at the "big" picture of any economy, it has its ups and downs, but for the long term it performs very well. That's the reason we live very comfortably now; we're living off our retirement savings.

We must also have some confidence in our economy, or the counterpart is everybody will be hurting. I prefer to be optimistic.

Finally, you may wish to contact your financial adviser for your 401k to find out if your mix of funds can be improved to minimize future losses.

Good luck.

0 Replies
 
Robert Gentel
 
  2  
Reply Tue 23 Sep, 2008 01:39 pm
@OGIONIK,
Unless you have investments that are at risk (e.g. real estate that's devaluing, stocks and such) nothing is likely to happen to you and your money directly like you seem to be imagining. For example, your concerns about trusting in money at all are not something you should seriously worry about because of the current crisis.

What is more probable is that you may have a harder time getting a job while the crisis is ongoing and you may pay more taxes in the future because the government bailouts are expensive and have to be paid at some point.
0 Replies
 
Rockhead
 
  1  
Reply Tue 23 Sep, 2008 01:49 pm
@OGIONIK,
Onion, in addition to the things RG mentioned, the value of our currency to buy gas, groceries, and essentials is going to fall faster than it has.

The poor got a step poorer thanks to the greedy...
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Tue 23 Sep, 2008 03:10 pm
@OGIONIK,
don't relly want to scare anyone , but ...


(of course , germany had lost two wars in succesion !)

in 1923 germany's money , bank accounts etc. were declared worthless . no insurance was payable because EVERY ONE had gone bust !
the same happened in 1948 - three years after the end of WW II . money , insurance contracts - everything ! - was declared worthless .

but within ten years the german economy had recovered well - and looking at germany now , it certainly is a pretty prosperous country .

a sidenote : the american and british governments (and their military and civilian administrations) deserve much credit for helping germany establish both an economic and a political system that imo is better than either the british or american systems .
the allied administrators certainly combined the best economic and political methods to help germany back on its feet (i guess they didn't have to worry about being re-elected , but could simply do what seemed best) .
hbg
0 Replies
 
jclbiz
 
  1  
Reply Tue 23 Sep, 2008 03:20 pm
@OGIONIK,
Very grave indeed. The no brainer is to trade all fiat (paper dollars) in for gold.
And much better yet silver. Not paper but physical. 90% best. then bullion.
inmho.

jclbiz
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  2  
Reply Tue 23 Sep, 2008 04:49 pm
what's going to happen is the question I answered above. As to where to put you money the short answer is in an fdic insured account. while it is true that the FDIC is below the asset level required by law and that they are one major bank failure away from needing to be bailed out themselves, Uncle Sam will cover them. This will work untill inflation kicks in, and at that point keeping your wealth in cash in an FDIC insured account will be a dumb move, as every day that goes by you will lose as inflation decreases the buying power of your account.

There is no place to hide. The old wisdom was that financial markets and real estate are sure things if you can wait at least twenty years to cash out, but that may not be true anymore.
hamburger
 
  3  
Reply Tue 23 Sep, 2008 05:23 pm
@hawkeye10,
there is always the "last resort" : become a small farmer , keep a few pigs and chickens , grow some grain and vegetables - should keep you from starving .

in the "dirty thirties" many canadians survived by just doing that . of course , those that lived in the prairies had a double-whammy : the draught and grasshoppers wiped out many of the crops and there was litle or no feed for the animals !
just trying to cheer everyone up !
hbg
cicerone imposter
 
  3  
Reply Tue 23 Sep, 2008 05:24 pm
@hamburger,
Many did the same in the US; they called it "victory gardens." Corny, but true.
 

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