farmerman wrote:you should have seen the insurance claims.
Sounds like the survey was the critical error. Funnny but in many failures it isn't one thing that is in error, but many, but kinda like the Monty Hall problem, Bayesian set up the conditions such that as one failure happens, the situation cascades into a whole number of conditional probabilities. That is, if the survey triangulation error hadn't occurred the consequence wouldn't have happened regardless of other errors.
BTW this is a classic event. One that is studied in many hazards analysis courses emphasizing simple "human" errors (assumption). Another classis one is the
Metric Mishap lead to loss of NASA orbiter. No insurance claims here, just the loss of $125M.
Rap