Where did this info come from?
Well DJ had blown through its 12,750 support and is heading south. Next stop is the 12,000 support line that it double bounced off in March.
I'm seeing the market struggling to stay higher than is justified. It's going below 12,000 before all this mess is cleaned up on the subprime problem, because it's affecting a whole lot more than the housing market.
We all know the routing by now: the feds will drop interest rates by at least 50 basis points, and the congress will tell Americans they are working on a stimulus package that'll get money into the hands of consumers. We'll get an upward tick on the market for a month or two, but we'll be back to the reality of the dismal conditioin of our overall economy.
In the 2000 recession the market dropped about 19%. If it does the same this time it should go down to 11,500, or about another 800 points.
just watched MSNBC - owned by general electric . market down about 3% , general electric down and there is some worry about BOND INSURERS now - once you start worrying about those insuring the risk , you better keep the life preserver at hand - and hope it's not been punctured .
commentators were complaining about bernanke talking about possibly dropping the rate another 50 basis points . "why hasn't he done it already " , they were shouting , "what's he waiting for ? " .
hbg
We're in a recession right now and should expect to recover in about 7-8 months. :wink:
miller wrote :
Quote:We're in a recession right now and should expect to recover in about 7-8 months. :wink:
you heard it here ... first ?
some of the street wise old timers (wall street old timers) suggest there will be plenty of time for bottom fishing well into 2009-2010 .
We're in negative territory's for the last 6 months. Not by much but its early days yet.
If you have Aussie miners in your portfolio look for opportunities to take profits.
We were discussing the markets volitility yesterday morning at the coffee shop, and a couple of us considered selling out all of our equities and transfer them to money market accounts for a year or two.
We both decided to ride out the storm; but realize it's gonna get real rough out there.
cicerone imposter wrote:We were discussing the markets volitility yesterday morning at the coffee shop, and a couple of us considered selling out all of our equities and transfer them to money market accounts for a year or two.
We both decided to ride out the storm; but realize it's gonna get real rough out there.
Best to not sell right now...
Our government is now talking about tax rebates, but it only shows how uninformed they are about this economic crisis. No temporary aid like the one they're talking about isn't going to help turn-around our economy. They're a bunch of ignoramuses.
Doesnt look pretty does it.
ASx is in weekend mode but will take a BIG dive on Monday.
Hang onto your hats investors
ASX took a 480 point pounding on Tuesday, Asian makets are well down. As the US market was in holiday mode for monday they have 2 days to catchup.
Aussie miners rio tinto and BHP bore the brunt as did local banks.
My advice is "dont look Ethyl!"
Take a leaf from the hitchikers guide to the galaxy.
DONT PANIC
Don't panic is spot on! We must remember the BIG picture in making our decisioins about our stock market investments; if all the economies of the world goes into the toilet, it won't matter what your holdings. We must have faith in the world econonomy that it'll eventually find its footing, and that the stock market will take care of itself.
Speculators are playing the market big time today; most don't know what they're doing, and will lose.
The basics are still pretty good, because we're holding our lows at above the lows after 2002 when we took the biggest hit.
Stay calm.
looking back only a year , it's interesting to me that some of the OLD wall street foxes were warning about the economy overheating . their advice was : "SLOW DOWN ! " .
some of the young traders , of course , saw only RIPE PLUMS (aka BONUS PAYMENTS) that were easy pickings .
some of them were able to PICK THEIR PLUMS at the expense of foolish investors .
i remember seeing a program where condos were being "flipped" by investors in florida . the condos had not even been completed . the investors said that they had no intention of living in them . they had put a down-payment on the condos strictly for "flipping" .
it sounded like "musical chairs" to me ; when the "music stopped playing" someone was going to fall on his ar.. i mean backside .
hbg
That's one of the reasons it's difficult to tie down how bad the subprime mortgages are at this point; investors in real estate to flip, and the financial companies that provided those loans to make a quick buck.
It's a huge mess that'll take the rest of this year to tie down - if at all.
Those flippers just walked away from their mortgages, and the banks ended up holding worthless paper. Just think of all those builders that invested in building those flip properties; they're also paying on their loans, and there are no buyers. That's the reason many builders have already gone under.
looking in the rearview mirror .
a report from BUSINESSWEEK - JANUARY
2006
Quote:More and More Unsold Homes
Posted by: Peter Coy on January 10
A huge boom in housing construction may be about to create a glut in the market.
The inventory of unsold new homes doesn't look too scary when you view it the conventional way, namely, in proportion to the rate of new-home sales. In November, the inventory added up to 4.9 months' worth of new-home sales, vs. 4.3 months' worth one year earlier.
i believe the unsold housing stock has now risen to about 18 month - how ROSY things looked just a year ago !
