How dangerous is Korea?

To put it simply, because the mad megalomaniac in charge of the North has an ENORMOUS effin' army pointed right at the South. And maybe nukes, to boot.

And did I mention he's nuts?

Nukes and a crazy dictator is the first thing I think of.

But I have huge gaps in my knowledge of North and South Korea, too, so would love to sit in on this one.

I dunno how much is fear mongered and how much is clear danger. Have friends who were in Korea, but not lately.

Did recently read a couple of cool police procedurals set in Korea, probably put out by soho press, the soho crime series. If I find a link I'll post. Still, that is only a small window.

Oh, hadn't seen blacksmithn, wasn't purposely copying him.

This looks like a good overview of North Korea:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/country_profiles/1131421.stm

Kim Jong-il is completely batshit.

Yeah, I know he's nuts.

I also know that my brother isn't afraid of much.

How many troops do we currently have in Korea?

What is their "mission" there?

I remember maybe 20 years ago that Brother thought he was being sent to Korea. It would have been considered his hardship tour at the time. Instead he went to California <snork> .

Okay, Death Valley ain't no cakewalk....

But this Korea thing is making me as jumpy as when he was in Iraq.

I was looking for an article on Kim Jong-il that I read in the New Yorker, can't find it online but here's another by the same author (and same subject):

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/magazine/story/0,11913,1075267,00.html

I believe it's still at 38,000, but that's off the top of my head.

This has a lot of the info from the NYer article:

http://www.newyorker.com/online/content/articles/030908on_onlineonly02

On the number of troops, found this:



http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/columnist/benedetto/2006-03-24-benedetto_x.htm

And then also this:



http://www.salon.com/wire/ap/archive.html?wire=D8GHADKO1.html

That Salon article is good, it's recent and has a lot of what could be dangerous.

(Best wishes to your bro.)

Thumbnail sketch of the North Korean People's Army:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/dprk/army.htm

Actually, it isn't all that dangerous. My son, a professional Army officer has served in Korea for a very large part of his career. He has always had his family with him, even during times of heightened tension. His next assignment is Camp Zama in Japan. The whole family would prefer to stay in Seoul, but that's the Army for you. Our son will probably retire next year, and transition into a GS-13 or better doing the same work.

At the moment tensions are not high, and the likelihood of fighting breaking out in the next year or so is not great. Seoul is within range of DPRK long range artillery stationed just north of the DMZ and 25 miles from the ROK capitol. The DPRK is probably the world's most isolated country, and it is constantly in bad economic shape. Kim Jong-Il runs a tight ship, and is unlikely to be overthrown from within. Kim is 65 and in good health, but when he passes from the scene there may be a period of chaos as his three sons contend for the position of God-King.

Much is made of the DPRK's atomic arsenal, but it isn't much of a threat troops stationed in Korea. Kim doesn't have many nuclear weapons, and his reach remains regional. His highest priority, after retaining dynastic power, is the reunification of the penninsula under his personal rule. To nuke the ROK would be to defeat his own purposes. He might nuke Japan, Okinawa, or a US Battle Group if it got within range, but even those scenarios are improbable because the end result would be the annhilation of the DPRK. Jong-Il may be crazy, but he has never shown any signs of being suicidal.

The DPRK maintains one of the world's largest conventional armies, and they are massed along the DMZ, with the bulk concentrated north of Seoul. North Korean incursions can be expected at anytime, but do not constitute a threat to US military families. It is doubtful that Kim will come south in force anytime soon. His petroleum stocks would not sustain an extended offensive, and a DPRK advance would have to go through kill-zones that have been contantly refined over the last 60 years. The ROK military is very good, but not large enough to hold back a serious invasion without American support. The U.S. is committed to staying on the penninsula so long as a threat exists. The North Koreans have an active third column working to sow discord in the South. Young Koreans who've grown up after the Korean cease-fire are receptive to the DPRK message, since they also want reunification on ROK terms. The US military is caught in the middle. The older folks and government know how important the US forces are in maintaining the peace, while the younger people (especially college age students) regularily riot and aggitate for withdrawl of the US troops. Actually, we are in the process of drawing down numbers, but will retain enough muscle to discourage DPRK adventurism.

I see no reason why an Amerrican officer or non-com should not be accompanied by his family on a two-year tour to Korea. Housing for officer's families are comparable to those inside CONUS. Korea is a pretty place, especially outside the Seoul which is like any urban capitol. Prices are reasonable, and the population is generally friendly. The Korean culture takes some getting used to, and they are extemely sensitive of any slight, real or imagined. During our last trip there my wife and I had a driver-bodyguard, but those were laid-on due to our "rank".

This is obviously going to take some time to catch up on. Thank you all for your links. I'll be sure to get to them.

And thank you for your good wishes to Brother.

I know he won't be there as early as this Saturday.... but he will probably be going soon.

(Correction, the article I credited to Salon is actually Associated Press, just hosted at Salon.)

It does seem to indicate that there are some current tensions.

I'd believe the "crazy but not suicidal" part, though. That's an example of what I don't yet know -- don't have enough of a grip on what that kind of threatening ("the DPRK will react to it with a strong measure for self-defense") actually means.

Thank you Asherman. I'm breathing a tentative sigh of relief after reading your post.

My brother is a General and therefore, pretty protected. That's why his worry had me worried. We just heard about Korea and I haven't talked to him yet. I'm very close to my brother and I didn't want to call and flip out -- that is why I asked this question.

Brother is only going for a year and then will mostly likely be back where he is now. Perhaps that has played into his decision and my mother (heaven help us) exaggerated his "danger" worries.

Still, I can't help but feel a little itchy about the whole thing.

Congratulations to your son and his family on his impending retirement!

Boomer - did your brother go to Westpoint?

He went to VMI.

Though I haven't checked lately, I believe our troop strength is around 35K, with a Marine fast reacation Brigade stationed in Okinawa. We are trying to keep a low profile on the penninsula and to avoid having any incidents that would play into the hands of the DPRK propaganda machine. The place is lousy with spies, and provocateurs.

The negotiaion strategy of the DPRK has never deviated since 1948. They demand and threaten, and behave in the most undiplomatic manner imaginable. If you give in, they up the ante and increase their threat levels to get more. If you stand up to them, and put credible counter-force threats on the table, they cry foul but backdown just enough to cool the tensions. Once the negotions resume, they latch onto another point and resume their threats and demands. Rarely will they give compromise or surrender a point, but even when they do they will violate the agreement at the first opportunity. Once caught, they deny the evidence and then demand claim that since they've already done the forbidden, it should be "put behind us in the interest of peace". Threats and bluster. Korea is regarded by many as a hardship tour, but it is hardest on the diplomats who have to deal with the DPRK on a daily basis.

All this probably feeds your anxiety, but the actual risk encountered by US service families living in the ROK is small. It really is a nice place that just happens to be have an outlaw brother living next door.

VMI! Great school and alma mater to Gen. George C. Marshal, probably the finest General ever produced by the United States.

A General's family would be very comfortable, I should think, in Seoul. Even if the baloon went up, and that's not likely at this time, the families of General officers would be on the first plane out to Japan.

Yes indeed VMI is a great school.

My five year old son has a entire wardrobe of VMI stuff in an attempt to influence him into attending.

Personally I have happy teenage memories of visiting Brother in a town with two all male colleges.

These days everywhere he goes fills me with a mixture of dread and pride -- a strange emotion I'm sure you've experienced yourself, Asherman.

I don't know if my anxiety level will ever decrease but at least I'm feeling more informed.

I'm going to clear my head for a bit and delve into rereading and reading links in the morning.

Thank you all very much.

He leaves for Korea next week.

I'm a little sad and scared but at least it isn't Iraq again.

Maybe he'll meet Asherman's son. That would be a great "small world" story.